NFL Week 15 Picks — Super Bowl futures, best parlay pick

This week’s roundtable features Betting Life experts Matthew Freedman, Matt LaMarca, and Geoff Ulrich.  

We asked them for their favorite futures, an anytime TD scorer, Scott Turner’s Las Vegas magic, and more. And to get more of our award-winning content and tools, you can check out the Fantasy Life NFL betting model and sign up for the free daily betting newsletter here. 

• Let’s check in on your favorite futures. Which one are you doubling down on?

Freedman: Chiefs to win Super Bowl (+500, FanDuel) 

The Chiefs probably aren’t the best team in the league … but I still think they’re the one likeliest to win the Super Bowl. QB Patrick Mahomes and HC Andy Reid are assassins. In the postseason, when the stakes are the highest, they will be at their deadliest. 

LaMarca: I like the Eagles (+550; FanDuel). The AFC feels like a gauntlet, with upwards of seven teams potentially competing for the conference title. The NFC is more top heavy, with the Eagles and Lions standing out as the clear top two teams. Detroit has been better for most of the year, but the Eagles might be better at this moment. They also still have a chance to secure the No. 1 seed in the conference, which would be massive for their chances. Forcing Jared Goff to go on the road outdoors on the East Coast in January could spell disaster, and I think Philly could beat the Lions in Detroit if they had to. I much prefer their odds at +550. 

Ulrich: Packers to win the Super Bowl (+2200; ESPNBet) 

I love how the Packers have started to come together the last three weeks. They took care of business against a weakened 49ers team, thrashed the Dolphins at home, and then went to-to-toe with the current market favorite on the road on a short week. Jordan Love has started to climb the efficiency ranks of late and they remain one of the deepest teams in the league from a roster perspective. If they get back top corner Jaire Alexander, the Packers are the sort of team that could go on the road and reel off a couple of big wins come playoff time.   

In five words, describe the following…

• The Broncos’ postseason chances

Freedman: Good, but who really cares? 

LaMarca: Thinner than most people realize. 

Ulrich: They have to qualify first.

• The Chargers’ postseason chances

Freedman: They could win Super Bowl. 

LaMarca: Slim, but a tough out. 

Ulrich: Quentin Johnston WR1? I’ll pass. 

• The most underrated Christmas movie

Freedman: Mixed Nuts with Steve Martin. 

LaMarca: Die Hard. Yippee ki-yay mfers. 

Ulrich: Gremlins. Gizmo, great role model.

• Scott Turner’s Raiders magic. Is it real?

Freedman: Better than Luke Getsy’s muggleness. 

LaMarca: Realer than anyone could’ve hoped. 

Ulrich: Gandalf could start, wouldn’t matter. 

• Give us a Week 15 anytime TD scorer!

Freedman: De’Von Achane (+110, FanDuel) 

Achane has scored in eight of his nine games this year with QB Tua Tagovailoa, putting up a total of 10 TDs from scrimmage. On a weekly basis, he’s about as good of a bet as it gets to find the endzone. I have him projected with 0.77 TDs this week and -187.1 odds to score. 

LaMarca: Mike Evans, aka Mr. Touchdown (+160). 

Ulrich: Brian Robinson Jr. (-125, bet365) 

Robinson has scored in seven of his 10 starts this season. At -125 he has implied odds of around 55%. Further, he’s facing a Saints team that is 29th in EPA against the rush and has allowed nine rushing TDs to opposing RBs over their last seven games. 

• You will not be held to this at all, but can you create us a parlay card for this week with 20-1 or better odds, please?

Freedman: The Road Dog Parlay (+3670, ESPN Bet) 

• Bills +125 at Lions 

• Dolphins +135 at Texans 

• Cowboys +130 at Panthers 

• Steelers +210 at Eagles 

I see value in all four of these teams.  

In a dome, Bills QB Josh Allen is 9-4 ML (79.5% ROI) and Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 4-1 ML (60.2% ROI). Being on the road is not a massive detriment to them as long as they’re indoors. 

As an underdog, Cowboys QB Cooper Rush is 5-4 ML (89.3% ROI) and Steelers HC Mike Tomlin is 54-49 ML (32.4% ROI). In different ways and across different timeframes, both guys have outperformed market expectations when getting points. 

Ulrich: Saints / Commanders alt lines (+6000; bet365) 

• Jayden Daniels 70+ rush yards +600 

• Juwan Johnson 50+ receiving yards and a TD +800 

The Commanders defense is soft in the middle of the field. They’ve ceded six TDs to opposing TEs and three have gone for 50+ yards in the process. Johnson is in a primary receiving role now and likely to get plenty of targets.  

Daniels has been undervalued as a rusher in the prop market since his injury blip and the Saints are 29th in EPA per rush on defense.