Sharks trade analysis: Grier (again) turns bargain into bigger return

SAN JOSE – Mackenzie Blackwood was acquired by the San Jose Sharks from the New Jersey Devils in June 2023 for a sixth-round pick in that year’s draft. It was unclear at that point how much the Sharks would get out of Blackwood, who struggled with injuries during the latter stages of his Devils tenure.

But given how well he knew Blackwood, Sharks general manager Mike Grier had faith the 6-foot-4 goaltender could stay healthy and turn his career around. Working with Evgeni Nabokov and Thomas Speer, Blackwood would later become the Sharks’ No. 1 goalie, posting solid numbers for a team in the nascent stages of a rebuild.

It was a tidy bit of work for Grier, who once again turned a minimal investment into a bigger payoff.

Grier’s made some blockbusters, such as the Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier trades that have aged well. But in June, he picked up defenseman Jake Walman and a 2024 second-rounder from Detroit for nothing, and two months later, he also acquired defenseman Cody Ceci from Edmonton for waiver claim Ty Emberson.

Forward Klim Kostin, who has been playing on the Sharks’ third line of late, was acquired in March from the Red Wings for defenseman Radim Simek, who didn’t play a game for Detroit and is now in the Czech League.

While Walman is signed through next season, Ceci, a pending UFA, figures to be traded for a future asset before the March 7 deadline. Kostin’s future is uncertain, as he is a pending restricted free agent.

Grier likely didn’t intend to keep Blackwood past the two-year contract he signed him to shortly after bringing him from the Garden State.

Blackwood turned 28 on Monday, and while still in the prime of his career, signing him to an extension didn’t make much sense for the Sharks, given that they appear to be at least a couple more years away from being legitimate playoff contenders.

The Sharks could have held onto Blackwood a little longer, perhaps getting other teams interested and driving up the price tag. However, the goalie market at the deadline can be fickle, and if Blackwood gets injured, that could affect his value. Colorado needed a goalie with No. 1 potential, so the deal was consummated.

All told, trading a sixth-rounder for what would become a second-rounder, a conditional fifth-round pick, and a player in Kovalenko who might stick around for a while is a pretty good return for a pending UFA.

Let’s start with what the Sharks got back from the Avalanche.

Given the Avalanche’s recent history of success, the 2026 second-rounder figures to be in the 50th to 60th overall range. More draft capital is likely coming, with the Sharks still holding onto five other pending UFAs besides Ceci.

The 5-foot-10, 180-pound Kovalenko is an intriguing player. With eight points in 28 games this season, the 25-year-old is perhaps not an offensive dynamo in hiding. But he should get more of an opportunity with the Sharks than with the Avalanche, with whom he averaged just 12 minutes per game.

Kovalenko, with a cap hit of $896,250, could slot into the Sharks’ top-nine or middle-six right away as San Jose faces the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday at the Lenovo Center. Incidentally, Kovalenko was born in Raleigh, N.C., in October 1999, when his dad, Andrei Kovalenko, was beginning his second and final season with the Hurricanes.

Whether Kovalenko can play more than a depth role in San Jose will likely depend on how hard he competes, how well he can take care of the puck, and whether he can earn the trust of coach Ryan Warsofsky. Bringing some snarl wouldn’t be discouraged, either.

If Kovalenko can do those things while chipping in some badly needed scoring, then the Sharks probably have someone they’ll want to keep around. Kovalenko is set to become a restricted free agent this summer.

But Georgiev is a reclamation project, no doubt about it.

Georgiev put up mostly solid numbers in his first five-plus NHL seasons, going 179-98-64 with a .912 save percentage from 2018 to 2023. It’s the last two seasons that have been a struggle, as he’s had a mediocre .892 save percentage with less than half of his 81 starts in that time considered quality starts.

“I think in Georgiev’s case, he’s shown that he can be a good goaltender in this league, as evidenced by his win total the last few years, and certainly in his postseason play last year,” Avalanche general manager Chris MacFarland told reporters Monday. “Stats are stats. We were aware of our early season goaltending struggles. … We felt we needed an upgrade a few weeks ago and started kicking tires.”

Let’s not kid each other: The Sharks’ record could really start to nosedive with Blackwood now elsewhere. He’s helped keep the Sharks competitive in a handful of games they didn’t belong in, and it’s unclear whether Vitek Vanecek and Georgiev can fully make up for his absence. Yaroslav Askarov’s time is coming, but it doesn’t appear to be right now.

So for now, it’s a matter of whether Nabokov and Speer can get Georgiev back on his game like they helped Blackwood do the last season-and-a-half. If they can, perhaps Grier can flip Georgiev and his $2.924 million cap hit for an asset before the March 7 trade deadline.

It wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. After all, Grier seems to be making a habit of this.