Trump's mass deportation plan could hinder US farmers; lead to higher prices

The U.S. agriculture sector, which relies heavily on migrant workers, would face difficulties if President-elect Trump goes through with his proposed mass deportation plan, leading to higher consumer prices, experts told FOX Business.

Consumers could face higher prices from the shock to the labor supply, but the country would also become more reliant on imports, which are now under the threat of tariffs, according to David Ortega, food economist and Michigan State University professor. 

"It's important to highlight that these individuals fill critical roles that many U.S. born workers are either unwilling or unable to perform," he said. 

If implemented, it could result in decreased crop yields and unharvested fields, particularly in the specialty crop sector, which relies heavily on human labor. Ortega explained that producers and companies would likely have to raise wages to attract enough workers, and those increased costs would ultimately be passed on to consumers.

TRUMP'S PROPOSED TARIFFS COULD DRIVE UP FOOD PRICES, EXPERTS SAY

However, farmers have lamented that it's difficult to get Americans to do these jobs, in part, because of how labor-intensive they are. 

According to the 2019-2020 National Agricultural Workers survey, only 36% of farmworkers surveyed were United States citizens, 19% were lawful permanent residents and another 1% had other work authorization through another status, excluding H-2A visas.

"The people who are picking tomatoes, the people picking avocados… these people are out in the fields, Americans won't touch these jobs," Carson Jorgensen, a sixth-generation sheep rancher in Utah, told FOX Business. "We rely on these migrant workers, a lot of them legal, some of them illegal, to do these jobs. And it's not about paying them less. It's about finding somebody to do the job." 

One avenue farmers have leveraged, including Jorgensen, is the H-2A program, which allows U.S. employers or U.S. agents who meet specific regulatory requirements to bring foreign nationals to the country to fill temporary agricultural jobs. 

WALMART WARNS OF HIGHER PRICES IF TRUMP IMPLEMENTS PROPOSED TARIFFS

However, Ortega and Jorgensen said the program has its own significant challenges.

"It is a nightmare. It is an absolute nightmare to do it legally… but you can't find an American to do the job either," Jorgensen said. He typically employs about two to three sheepherders, all of whom are on H-2A visas. 

"You have to have this imported labor but… the system they've created to bring these people here is an absolute wreck," he continued. 

On average, Jorgensen said it takes him six months to get an H-2A visa approved. But recently, despite utilizing all of his congressional contacts, he said it took nearly eight months to get a visa for one of his most recent workers. 

"In agriculture, that's not okay," he said. "Nothing in agriculture stops. If you're short [on] help, waiting six to eight months is not really an option." 

Trump vowed on the campaign trail that he would crack down on illegal immigration. Karoline Leavitt, the Trump-Vance transition spokesperson and Trump's pick for his press secretary once he takes office, told FOX Business that Trump "will marshal every federal and state power necessary to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families." 

But Jorgensen said most of the agricultural workers at bigger plants and smaller farms didn't just walk across the border. "A lot of these people in the agricultural sector came here on work visas, and they just stayed" after their visa expired, he said.

For sheep herding in particular, Jorgensen estimated the industry in the U.S. likely pays workers four to five times more in a single month than they would earn in their home country, which puts their families in a better financial position. 

"It sets their kids up for the future. It allows our kids to go to good schools. It does all kinds of things, and it's a hard sacrifice for them. But again, the risk is worth the reward to these guys," he continued. 

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Shirley Auza, another sheep rancher in California, told FOX Business that not only is the visa process rigorous, but it's expensive. Auza's husband, Martin, started the business in 1972. 

Auza said if it weren't for the H-2A vias they would be out of business. But she stressed that there are constant regulations that they need to stay on top of. 

"It's almost like you're fighting a government to stay in business," she said. 

Critical Labor Coalition Executive Director Misty Chally said the nation is facing an "intensifying" labor shortage and a declining supply of American workers. To address this crisis and support these essential workers, Chally emphasized that it is "essential" to create pathways for legal immigration.