Analysis: The NBA’s 3-point craze is only getting crazier, with the Celtics leading the charge
Make more 3-pointers than your opponent in this NBA era, and you’re likely to win. Make a lot more 3s than your opponent, and you’re almost certain to win.
The Boston Celtics are clearly banking on that thinking as they seek back-to-back titles.
All the 3-point numbers in the NBA are on the rise yet again, with the league on yet another record pace for both 3s made and 3s attempted. This can’t come as a surprise, given there’s been a steady rise in those numbers across the league for more than a decade.
But the Celtics are relying upon the 3-pointer like no team in NBA history — on pace to smash the league records for 3s made and attempted in a season — and other teams are taking note of the approach.
“When we’re at our best, you have to have an understanding,” Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said. “This is what we do. … At the end of the day, we’re trying to be the best version of ourselves more than other people.”
The best version of the Celtics is the version that includes them shooting it from deep and shooting it from there often. They’re not alone in that sort of thinking. Of the NBA’s 30 teams, 13 are on pace to shoot more 3s this season than they ever have before.
“It helps, for sure, and our guys have really worked at that,” said Miami coach Erik Spoelstra, whose team is one of the 13 — along with Boston, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Oklahoma City, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Antonio and Washington — on a franchise-record pace for 3-point attempts. “It all works together, though. It can’t just be 3s and it can’t just be paint attacks.”
It’s silly to say that one stat — other than points, obviously — can dictate winning or losing, but it sure seems like an edge in 3-pointers made equates to victories.
So far this season, the team that takes more 3-pointers in a game wins 53% of the time. The team that makes more 3-pointers wins 67% of the time. If a team makes five more 3s than its opponent, it wins 75% of the time. And if a team makes 10 more 3s than its opponent, game over: Those clubs, after the Celtics did it to the Heat on Monday, are now 31-0 this season.
“Rhythm shots, catch-and-shoot 3s, open shots, you’ve got to be willing to take those,” Toronto coach Darko Rajaković said. “Players at this level, they spend so much time working on their shot — working in the offseason, working in-season — you’ve got to have confidence to take those shots.”
Only two teams in league history — the 2018-19 Houston Rockets and 2020-21 Utah Jazz — have finished a season having gotten more points off 3-pointers than they did 2-pointers.
That club is going to have a new member or two when this season is over.
This is an example of how what Boston is doing is never-before-seen. The Celtics are getting 47% of their points off 3s and only 37% off 2s, an unprecedented difference. (And most of those 2s are at the rim.) Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets are getting 45% of points off 3s, 42% off 2s.
It’s almost unheard of to be that 3-point reliant. The Jazz got 43% of their points on 3s in 2020-21, 42% on 2s. The Rockets got 42% of their points on 3s in 2018-19, 41% on 2s.
Charlotte is in its first year under coach Charles Lee — who, it should be noted, coached in Boston last season under Mazzulla. It’s not a stretch to conclude that Lee brought the Boston-3-party mentality to Charlotte and gave his shooters a very green light.
“We’re challenging them in a lot of different ways,” Lee said.
There have been six instances entering this week of a player taking at least 18 3-pointers in a game this season. One was by Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton. Another was by Boston’s Jayson Tatum. The other four were by Charlotte players — three by LaMelo Ball (including the NBA’s first 20 3-point-attempt game this season) and the other by Brandon Miller.
All this comes in an era where basically everybody is shooting 3s and has been for some time. The Heat had a game last week where Spoelstra played 10 players and all of them tried at least two 3s in a game. Of the top 200 scorers in the league this season in terms of total points, 95% of them have made at least one 3-pointer. And the 5% that aren’t in that group, they’re all post players who almost never venture outside the arc — guys like Ivica Zubac, Jakob Poeltl, Daniel Gafford, Jarrett Allen, Clint Capela and Rudy Gobert.
Rajaković doesn’t see this increased 3-point reliance ending anytime soon.
“If you make them, awesome, get back to the gym and work and get in more,” Rajaković said. “If you miss them, get back to the gym and work and get in more.”
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