Online Black Friday spending is on track to break a record this year, despite inflation

• Adobe reports record $7.9 billion in online spending on Black Friday so far, up 8.2% from 2023.
• Adobe expects final online Black Friday numbers to be between $10.7 and $11 billion.
• Inflation and high credit card debt make consumers cautious, yet spending remains resilient.

Americans continued to spend on Black Friday after strong Thanksgiving sales numbers, even despite inflation concerns.

Adobe's initial Black Friday e-commerce data reveals consumers spent $7.9 billion online this Black Friday through 6:30 p.m. This total is up 8.2% compared to last year's value.

With spending expected to accelerate between 8 and 10 p.m., Adobe expects final online Black Friday numbers to be between a record $10.7 and $11 billion, in line with the $10.8 billion estimates from its Black Friday preview.

Shoppers were eager to buy skin and hair care products, air fryers, PlayStation 5 consoles, and Wicked-related toys. Black Friday sales continue to trend this holiday season with greater electronics, cosmetics, and appliance sales compared to average October 2024 sales, according to the data.

"Adobe is reaffirming its forecast that a new e-commerce record will be set on Black Friday and surge past the $10 billion mark," said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst of Adobe Digital Insights, in a statement. "This is being driven by big discounts in advance of Cyber Monday, as well as the continued acceleration of mobile commerce that is contributing to more impulse shopping."

However, many Americans are still cautious about spending as inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As of October 2024, the inflation rate was 2.6% year over year.

Retail researchers told The Washington Post that though consumer spending has remained resilient, record-high credit card debt and sticker shock over the last few years have made consumers — particularly those who are lower- or middle-income — more intentional about spending and alert to price comparisons. Consumers continue to flock to discount retailers while going to some big box stores like Target less often.

Shoppers have been increasingly relying on buy-now-pay-later purchases. This Black Friday, consumers are expected to spend $711.3 million using BNPL online — up 12.8% year over year — and $430 million on Thanksgiving.

Adobe data shows that Thanksgiving spending hit a record high this year. This Thanksgiving, consumers spent $6.1 billion online, up 8.8% from last year's $5.6 billion. Nearly 60% of online sales were from a mobile device, with sales peaking between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m.

Pandya said in a statement that this Thanksgiving had larger-than-anticipated discounts, which drove impulse shopping. Toys had discounts peak at 27.2% off the listed price, while apparel was 22.6%.

Consumers were willing to shell out hundreds of dollars on electronics, as Adobe data reveals the most expensive electronics goods had a 72% increase in the share of units sold compared to pre-season trends. Sporting goods increased by 44%, while appliances spiked by 36% compared to pre-season trends.

Adobe expects $5.2 billion in spending on Saturday, $5.6 billion on Sunday, and $13.2 billion on Cyber Monday, up 6.1% from last year.

Adobe is anticipating the greatest discounts on computers, peaking at 23% off the listed price. Adobe projects $40.6 billion in online spending this Cyber Week and $240.8 billion in total holiday spending.