NFL spread picks, Week 13: Thanksgiving and Black Friday games shake up the season

Thanksgiving might be the toughest week to pick against the spread each season in the NFL.

You’ve got six teams playing on a short week on Thursday, another two playing on a short week in the Black Friday game, a full Sunday slate and finally Monday Night Football to cap it all off. And that’s before you consider the three West Coast teams facing noon kickoffs on the East Coast.

Coming off a so-so week, our panel is back with their best bets for each of the NFL’s 16 games in Week 13.

Tail or fade responsibly as we dig in.

All odd via BetMGM

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (Thursday)

Opening Line: Lions -4.5

Blake Schuster: Bears +10

Double digit division underdog on a short week seems to be a good recipe this year. Or at least it was for Browns-Steelers last week.

Prince Grimes: Lions -10

Home team dominates this one and grinds Chicago into dust with a strong run game.

Charles Curtis: Bears +10

Short week, divisional matchup, Chicago looking a little feistier of late.

Cory Woodroof: Bears +10

The Lions are amazing, but I still don’t know if they’re over the whole Thanksgiving thing.

Robert Zeglinski: Bears +10

Ah, the classic “Rookie Phenom QB against the NFL’s best team” cliche. As inept as the rest of the Bears are, Caleb Williams has me feeling like Laurence Fishburne in The Matrix right now.

Christian D’Andrea: Bears +10

Chicago is spritely lately. Not spritely enough to win, but enough to cover a double-digit spread in a division game.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (Thursday)

Opening Line: Cowboys -8.5

Blake Schuster: Giants +3.5

It seems like the Giants hit rock bottom last week. The Cowboys will get there on Thursday.

Prince Grimes: Cowboys -3.5

I’m convinced the Giants have quit in a way Dallas clearly has not.

Charles Curtis: Giants +3.5

A game this awful means it’s going to be all over the place. So let’s take the points.

Cory Woodroof: Cowboys -3.5

Why not?

Robert Zeglinski: Cowboys -3.5

I can’t believe roughly 34 million people are gonna watch this “game.”

Christian D’Andrea: Cowboys -3.5

Cooper Rush vs. an injured Tommy DeVito. What have we done to deserve this? (looks at state of world at large) Oh, OK.

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (Thursday)

Opening Line: Packers -3

Blake Schuster: Packers -3.5

There are just some picks you can’t second-guess, even if Tua looks pretty good lately.

Prince Grimes: Packers -3.5

Always fade Miami in cold weather.

Charles Curtis: Packers -3.5

Lock of the week. Snowy weather and cold means Tua is in trouble.

Cory Woodroof: Packers -3.5

Let it snow.

Robert Zeglinski: Packers -3.5

Betting against Tua Tagovailoa in the cold is like betting on Patrick Mahomes with 1:30 on the clock and a timeout.

Christian D’Andrea: Packers -3.5

I am enjoying Tua Tagovailoa’s revival. Not enough to trust him in cold weather.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Friday)

Opening Line: Chiefs -7.5

Blake Schuster: Raiders +12

10-1 Kansas City is 5-6 against the spread. You want me to take them as nearly two touchdown favorites against a division rival? Pass.

Prince Grimes: Raiders +12

The Chiefs haven’t done anything to earn a spread this large.

Charles Curtis: Raiders +12

I’m done trusting the Chiefs to cover big spreads.

Cory Woodroof: Raiders +12

This line isn’t serious.

Robert Zeglinski: Raiders +12

You just know the Raiders will pull some classic BS — combined with a good Chiefs malaise — that makes this game a lot closer than it should be.

Christian D’Andrea: Raiders +12

The last time Aidan O’Connell saw the Chiefs on a holiday(ish) date in Kansas City, he completed nine of 21 passes for 62 yards. Las Vegas won anyway because division rivalry games are weird.

Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5

Blake Schuster: Falcons +2

I would’ve taken this line before the JK Dobbins news, for whatever that’s worth.

Prince Grimes: Chargers -2

I do worry about this pick with JK Dobbins out, but Justin Herbert should be able to make some things happen in the passing game.

Charles Curtis: Chargers -2

I think Jim Harbaugh gets his squad to rebound after Monday’s loss.

Cory Woodroof: Falcons +2

Atlanta can score points. This will go down to the wire, but L.A. isn’t immune to sliding on the road.

Robert Zeglinski: Chargers -2

The Falcons are freefalling and can’t stop a nosebleed. The Chargers are a firm second tier Super Bowl contender. These two things are not the same, obviously.

Christian D’Andrea: Falcons +2

Between the bye and homefield advantage, Atlanta’s built to live up to modest expectations.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Opening Line: Bengals -5

Blake Schuster: Steelers +3

When the oddsmakers give Mike Tomlin free points you say “thank you very much” and nothing else.

Prince Grimes: Steelers +3

The Bengals can’t stop anyone.

Charles Curtis: Steelers +3

Pittsburgh as dawgs? Thank you!

Cory Woodroof: Bengals -3

Joe Cool can handle business.

Robert Zeglinski: Steelers +3

Picking Joe Burrow to happily ruin the Steelers’ season out of spite but Mike Tomlin still covers, baby.

Christian D’Andrea: Bengals -3

This is a must-win game against a team the Bengals hate. At home. As Russell Wilson begins to look a little bit more like 2022 Russ each week.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

Opening Line: Vikings -2

Blake Schuster: Vikings -3.5

This should be a pretty fun game if both offenses show up. Unfortunately, I don’t think Brian Flores ever gives Kyler Murray the chance.

Prince Grimes: Cardinals +3.5

Minnesota should win but they play with their food too much and have just two wins ATS in their last six games.

Charles Curtis: Vikings -3.5

The Cards are kinda bad, aren’t they?

Cory Woodroof: Vikings -3.5

Minnesota can win this if the defense plays well.

Robert Zeglinski: Vikings -3.5

The Vikings are the fakest 9-2 team ever but I see no reason to put faith in Arizona, which needs superhuman efforts from Kyler Murray just to stay in games.

Christian D’Andrea: Vikings -3.5

Arizona’s rise is nice, but this is ultimately an undermanned team punching above its weight class.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Opening Line: Colts -3

Blake Schuster: Colts -2.5

They let us down last week against the Lions so lets double down on apparently bad logic.

Prince Grimes: Colts -2.5

We might get good Anthony Richardson in this one.

Charles Curtis: Colts -2.5

A little uneasy about this one but I like it.

Cory Woodroof: Colts -2.5

Drake Maye SZN is coming…just not yet.

Robert Zeglinski: Patriots +2.5

Until Anthony Richardson has a dominant wire-to-wire performance where his teammates also perform up to snuff, I’m fading this Colts offense in every imaginable way.

Christian D’Andrea: Patriots +2.5

I have no idea.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets

Opening Line: Jets -4.5

Blake Schuster: Seahawks -2

After thinking they’d get blown out by Arizona last week, I’m comfortable picking Seattle out East.

Prince Grimes: Jets +2

Tough travel game for the inconsistent Seahawks.

Charles Curtis: Seahawks -2

A game I’m absolutely avoiding in real life. I hate both sides.

Cory Woodroof: Seahawks -2

The Jets suck.

Robert Zeglinski: Jets +2

The Seahawks are better but they’re playing cross-country against a desperate team where nothing matters anymore. Eat at Arby’s.

Christian D’Andrea: Jets +2

The Jets are at home. They’re coming off a bye. A dying buck’s last leap is always its highest.

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders

Opening Line: Commanders -1.5

Blake Schuster: Commanders -5.5

Can September Kliff Kingsbury please come back so Commanders games don’t have to be a slog anymore?

Prince Grimes: Commanders -5.5

This won’t be a blowout by any means, but I could see a late front-door cover by a desperate Washington team.

Charles Curtis: Titans +5.5. The Titans are just good enough to cover.

Cory Woodroof: Commanders -5.5

The Titans are too inconsistent to win two in a row.

Robert Zeglinski: Titans +5.5

It’s been long enough without a good Jayden Daniels game (or, more importantly, a good Kliff Kingsbury game) that I’m back to “prove it” mode before I roll with the Commanders again.

Christian D’Andrea: Titans +5.5

Let’s see if the Kliff Kingsbury curse is real. Tennessee has an average defense. Can it stop Jayden Daniels?

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Opening Line: Jaguars -1

Blake Schuster: Texans -4.5

Jacksonville can be a panacea for CJ Stroud.

Prince Grimes: Texans -4.5

The last week I’ll trust Houston.

Charles Curtis: Jaguars +4.5

Something is not right with this Texans squad.

Cory Woodroof: Texans -4.5

Houston won’t lose two division games in a row.

Robert Zeglinski: Texans -4.5

Houston is a middling pretender destined for a wild-card round beatdown, but holy cow, it’s still so much better than everyone else in the AFC South.

Christian D’Andrea: Jags +4.5

Jacksonville is a mess, but it’s a well-rested mess at home.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

Opening Line: Rams -1.5

Blake Schuster: Rams -3

This is as close to a get-right game as the Rams are going to get after letting the Eagles run all over them.

Prince Grimes: Saints +3

Talk about a team hard to trust. The Rams aren’t playing up to expectations, and they might just mess around and lose this game.

Charles Curtis: Rams -3

Another spread I hate!

Cory Woodroof: Rams -3

L.A. rebounds this week.

Robert Zeglinski: Saints +3

Three points to a prideful Saints team at home against a flawed L.A. squad? Yes PLEASE.

Christian D’Andrea: Saints +3

This is an inscrutable game but, again, home underdog coming off a bye.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2

Blake Schuster: Panthers +6

The Panthers nearly taking down Kansas City last week says a lot more than Tampa Bay running over the Giants did.

Prince Grimes: Buccaneers -6

The Giants couldn’t stop the Bucs offense, and I don’t think the Panthers will be able to either.

Charles Curtis: Panthers +6

Big spread here. Too big!

Cory Woodroof: Panthers +6

Bucs may win, but I think it’s close.

Robert Zeglinski: Buccaneers -6

Baker Mayfield would be a top-level MVP candidate if the Buccaneers hadn’t seemingly blown every one-score game on their docket.

Christian D’Andrea: Panthers +6

Carolina is approaching competence and for that Dave Canales deserves a medal.

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens

Opening Line: Ravens -3.5

Blake Schuster: Ravens -3

Lamar Jackson MVP Statement Game incoming. Again.

Prince Grimes: Eagles +3

Eagles too good to lay this many points. I could see them losing (or winning) by the slimmest of margins.

Charles Curtis: Eagles +3

Ravens will win by 1.

Cory Woodroof: Ravens -3

Derrick Henry will eat.

Robert Zeglinski: Ravens -3

God, this feels stupid. Oh, well, rescue me Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

Christian D’Andrea: Eagles +3

That Philly defense is elite. The Baltimore defense is not.

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (Sunday Night)

Opening Line: 49ers -2

Blake Schuster: Bills -7

There are possible snowstorms in the forecast which makes this spread an absolute nightmare.

Prince Grimes: Bills -7

I go the other way if Brock Purdy plays.

Charles Curtis: Bills -7

I assume Brock Purdy won’t play.

Cory Woodroof: 49ers +7

Do you want to play against an angry Kyle Shanahan?

Robert Zeglinski: Bills -7

San Fran has unofficially packed it in for 2025 and the Bills are, yet again, playing for a Lombardi Trophy. It’s crazy how great this matchup still seemed about a month ago, though.

Christian D’Andrea: Bills -7

Buffalo can cover even with a diminished Purdy behind center.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (Monday Night)

Opening Line: Browns -3.5

Blake Schuster: Broncos -5.5

Denver’s defense is going to eat Jameis Winston alive.

Prince Grimes: Broncos -5.5

Jameis Winston against Denver’s defense should be fun to watch.

Charles Curtis: Broncos -5.5

Gotta ride the hot hand at home here.

Cory Woodroof: Broncos -5.5

Cleveland won’t do well against this defense.

Robert Zeglinski: Broncos -5.5

That Denver defense is gonna tie Jameis Winston into a pretzel in primetime.

Christian D’Andrea: Broncos -5.5

Last week’s win was nice, but expecting consistency from the Cleveland offense is a fool’s errand.