NFL straight-up picks, Week 13: An Eagles-Ravens Super Bowl 59 preview?
For the first time since Week 4, all 32 NFL teams will be in action for Thanksgiving weekend. That means 16 games spread over five days, thanks in part to the league’s new initiative to try and make Black Friday an NFL bookmark.
That’s created a slate with a few clunkers and several more toss-up games. The Pittsburgh Steelers just lost a rivalry game in Ohio against a desperate team and now will do it again in Cincinnati. The New Orleans Saints are relatively hot and coming off a bye at home but facing a flawed Los Angeles Rams team in dire need of a win to stay in the NFC West race. Eagles-Ravens is probably gonna rule, but that’s the only thing I’m mostly sure about with that game.
With all this in mind, let’s take a closer look and see if we can find some straight-up winners in a full 16-game slate.
I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.
Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 13 picks:
| Game | Christian | Charles | Mary |
| Bears at Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Giants at Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Dolphins at Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers |
| Raiders at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Seahawks at Jets | Jets | Seahawks | Seahawks |
| Colts at Patriots | Patriots? | Colts | Colts |
| Chargers at Falcons | Falcons | Chargers | Falcons |
| Cardinals at Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings |
| Titans at Commanders | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders |
| Steelers at Bengals | Bengals? | Steelers | Steelers |
| Texans at Jaguars | Texans | Texans | Texans |
| Buccaneers at Panthers | Bucs | Bucs | Bucs |
| Rams at Saints | Saints? | Rams | Rams |
| Eagles at Ravens | Eagles? | Ravens | Eagles |
| 49ers at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Browns at Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
| Last week: | 9-4 | 9-4 | 7-6 |
| Year to date: | 122-57 (.682) | 116-63 (.648) | 104-60 (.634) |
and:
| Game | Andrew | Prince | Meg |
| Bears at Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Giants at Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Dolphins at Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers |
| Raiders at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Seahawks at Jets | Seahawks | Seahawks | Jets |
| Colts at Patriots | Colts | Colts | Colts |
| Chargers at Falcons | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers |
| Cardinals at Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings |
| Titans at Commanders | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders |
| Steelers at Bengals | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers |
| Texans at Jaguars | Texans | Texans | Texans |
| Buccaneers at Panthers | Bucs | Bucs | Bucs |
| Rams at Saints | Saints | Rams | Rams |
| Eagles at Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| 49ers at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Browns at Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
| Last week: | n/a | 9-4 | 10-3 |
| Year to date: | 108-58 (.651) | 113-66 (.631) | 90-46 (.662) |
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:
Let’s break down three games based on what I do and don’t like.
Detroit Free Press
Easiest game to pick: Detroit Lions (-10) over the Chicago Bears
Why I like this pick:
The Lions are a buzzsaw and get to reward their faithful fans with a division win in the franchise’s most anticipated regular season game of the year. Detroit has scored at least 42 points in each of its last three home games. Its defense hasn’t given up a touchdown since November 10.
Why I don’t like this pick:
The Bears are showing signs of competence and Caleb Williams once again looks special. Chicago’s defense is significantly better than some of the opponents the Lions have faced lately. It’s a divisional rivalry, which the Bears usually sit out but, hey, maybe they get motivated to make Detroit stumble a bit on its way to the playoffs.
Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 9-3 (.750)
The Enquirer
Hardest favorite to back: Cincinnati Bengals (-3) over the Pittsburgh Steelers
Why I like this pick:
Cincinnati is at home and coming off a bye. Its opponent just lost to a division rival in a slopfest. Russell Wilson’s -0.061 expected points added (EPA) per play his last two weeks ranks 24th in the league, right behind Aaron Rodgers.
Importantly, the Bengals *NEED* to win this game. They’re 2.5 games out of the AFC’s final playoff spot with six weeks left in the season. It won’t be easy, but it has to happen.
Why I don’t like this pick:
This is a showdown between an 8-3 team and a 4-7 one. Records aren’t everything, but betting against Mike Tomlin is always a risk. Cincinnati only has one win at home and it came against the Raiders, which barely counts. Is the Bengals’ bottom-10 defense really gonna be the thing to keep Russ looking like his Denver self?
Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 7-5 (.583)
Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Upset pick of the week: New York Jets (+2) over the Seattle Seahawks
Why I like this pick:
The Jets are at home. They’re coming off a bye. A dying buck’s last leap is always its highest.
This may have been the rest Aaron Rodgers badly needed. It was a reset for a defense that should not be this bad. The Seahawks are riding high after last week and traveling across four time zones for Week 13. This feels like a trap.
Why I don’t like this pick:
It’s possible the Jets are simply bad. Firing Robert Saleh merely served to further a tradition of fixing nothing. Geno Smith is one of the league’s most accurate quarterbacks and set to face what’s been an average passing defense. Betting on New York, in any form, has been a true doofus’s move in 2024.
Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 3-9 (.250)