Qatar Grand Prix: Storylines for the penultimate F1 race of the season

Whether McLaren hold off Ferrari and Red Bull for the F1 Constructors’ Championship leads Qatar Grand Prix storylines

The Las Vegas Grand Prix put one Formula 1 title race to bed. With his fifth-place finish, one spot ahead of Lando Norris, Max Verstappen clinched his fourth straight F1 Drivers’ Championship. 2024 might have been Verstappen’s most impressive season yet, as he extracted every bit of performance out of the RB20, and on those weekends when Red Bull’s 2024 challenger was lagging behind the field — such as Las Vegas — Verstappen did what he needed to do to maintain an advantage in the points.

His worst finish in 2024, outside of a DNF in Australia due to a brake duct issue? That was a trio of P6 results.

Now the focus shifts to both the Qatar Grand Prix and the outstanding title to be decided: The Constructors’ Championship. McLaren arrives in Qatar with their advantage over Ferrari shaved down to 24 points after results in Sin City, and Red Bull is sitting 55 points behind them. With Norris finishing sixth (and picking up a bonus point for the fastest lap) and Oscar Piastri finishing seventh, McLaren banked 15 points in Las Vegas.

Ferrari saw Carlos Sainz Jr. finish third, and Charles Leclerc finish fourth, to bring home 27 points from Las Vegas.

However, the case could be made that McLaren, by minimizing the damage in Las Vegas on a circuit that seemed to favor Ferrari, retains the advantage heading into Qatar. Both teams seem to view the state of play in that fashion.

“Yeah, I’m a bit worried about Qatar because if you see Turn 1 and Turn 3, it’s exactly the type of corner you have in Qatar,” said Sainz after qualifying in Las Vegas. “Fourth, fifth gear, long combined, which is exactly where we’ve been struggling. And just in that sector today to the [Mercedes], we were three tenths off. So if you keep adding those corners up, it could be a tough one for us in Qatar. So tomorrow is a good opportunity to get points because we might lose them in Qatar.

“So, yeah, I think we’re going to go into the race trying to win because that’s what we need to target. Also knowing McLaren is behind and with the two cars trying to get the maximum points possible because we know in order to beat McLaren, we’re probably going to go through a weekend in Qatar where we’re also losing points. So we need to make sure we gain them and knowing that, yeah, there are 30 something points ahead. That is quite a lot.”

“We’ll now turn our attention to next weekend and coming back stronger in Qatar, a circuit that should suit our car better than Vegas. All our focus is on these last two races,” said Norris after the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

McLaren Team Principal Andrea Stella echoed that belief. “Considering the weekend we’ve had, I think we were able to limit the damage this evening. Qatar and Abu Dhabi should be more suitable ground for the MCL38 – but there are four teams in contention for victory all of the time.”

With the Qatar Grand Prix standing as the final F1 Sprint Race of the season — an event Piastri won — this could be a big weekend for McLaren in the title race.

Game on in Qatar.

Here are the other major storylines for the Qatar Grand Prix.

Other battles in the field

The fight for the Constructors’ Championship is not the only place up for grabs over the final two race weekends of the F1 season.

A thrilling battle for P6 in the Constructors’ Championship is shaping up between Haas, Alpine, and Visa Cash App RB F1 Team. However, this was a two-way fight just a few weeks ago, until a stunning double-podium result from Alpine at the São Paulo Grand Prix propelled Alpine into the mix. The Enstone-based team was actually in sixth heading into Las Vegas and seemed primed to extend that lead over their two rivals, with Pierre Gasly starting third and Esteban Ocon starting in P11. But a failure on Gasly’s A524 and a mistake in the pits for Ocon saw their Las Vegas Grand Prix unravel.

With Nico Hülkenberg finishing eighth — and adding four more points to Haas’ tally on the season — they now sit sixth with 50 points on the year, followed by Alpine with 49, and VCARB with 46.

Then there is the fight for second behind Verstappen. While Norris was eliminated from title contention in Las Vegas, he maintains an advantage over Leclerc in the race for second. Norris heads to Qatar with 340 points on the season, with Leclerc 21 points behind with 319.

Should the Qatar Grand Prix play out as the teams expect — with McLaren having the advantage — Norris could take a big step toward locking down P2 in the Drivers’ Championship, which would be his best result yet in F1.

Talking heat, and tires

It is time to talk tires, and heat

The Qatar Grand Prix is traditionally one of the most physically demanding tracks on the circuit, due to the layout of the Lusail International Circuit, and the heat and humidity drivers encounter in Qatar.

Last year was the most demanding yet.

While the race has been moved later in the year this season, drivers and teams are still expecting hot conditions this weekend.

Ahead of the United States Grand Prix, I spoke with Tom Clark, Esteban Ocon’s performance coach, about what the teams are expecting in Qatar this year, and how teams prepare for the conditions.

“We recognize, and we’ve always known, that heat training is important. To have a period of adaptation to heat before having a hot race. Fortunately, we’ve got some time before Singapore, which has already been, and Qatar to have that dedicated training. The race has actually moved slightly later this year, so we’re not anticipating it as hot,” began Clark.

“However, we should still plan that in the Middle East, it can suddenly be very hot even at that time of year,” added Clark. “We will have a dedicated period of heat training. The only slight advantage we’ve got is we have an extra week off before Vegas, which precedes Qatar, so we’ll be able to use that time for some good, dedicated heat training.”

However, as Clark pointed out, the real issue last season was the issue F1 encountered with tires. New “pyramid kerbs” were installed at the Lusail International Circuit ahead of the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix, but Pirelli discovered after FP1 that there were separations in the tires, in the sidewalls between the topping compounds, and the carcass cords.

Out of concern for the drivers, F1 mandated that each set of tires be used for a maximum of 18 laps in the race. That turned the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix into a three-stop race.

This meant drivers went full out for all 18 of those laps, and therefore each lap of the race.

Many drivers became physically ill as a result. Logan Sargeant retired due to dehydration and heat stroke, conditions exacerbated by the flu he was already dealing with when he arrived in Qatar. Teammate Alexander Albon was sent to the care center for heat exhaustion after the race, as was Lance Stroll.

Then there was Ocon, who reported that he vomited twice in his helmet during the race.

Both Pirelli and the Qatar Grand Prix have made some alterations for 2024, beyond the schedule change. Pirelli has mandated the three hardest compounds in their range for the Qatar Grand Prix as the tire choices this weekend: The C1, the C2, and the C3, with the C3 being the “softs” for this weekend. For comparison, the C3 compound was the “hard” in the Las Vegas Grand Prix, as Pirelli ran the three softest compounds in their range for that street circuit:

In addition, the pointed edges of the pyramid kerbs have been rounded off at portions of the track, and the race organizers have also installed some gravel traps at various corners of the circuit, to dissuade drivers from spending too much time on the kerbs this weekend.

Even if these changes eliminated the tire issues teams and drivers endured last season, the heat and humidity will still pose their own set of challenges.

Pressure on Sergio Pérez, redux

It’s Groundhog Day, again.

Or perhaps more accurately, it is another day in the F1 world where there is pressure on — and uncertainty around — Sergio Pérez’s future.

While Pérez signed a new contract with Red Bull earlier this season, the driver remains under persistent pressure to improve his performance on the track. With Red Bull seeing their chances at another Constructors’ Championship slipping away — as outlined above they are 55 points adrift of McLaren atop the standings — Pérez’s performance is being viewed as a real reason they are fading behind McLaren and Ferrari.

He finished second in the Drivers’ Championship standings a season ago, but right now Pérez sits in eighth, effectively in last place when you look at the eight drivers from the top four teams. While Verstappen has 408 points on the season Pérez has only banked 152, 56 points behind seventh-place Lewis Hamilton.

He has more points-less Grands Prix this season (five) than podiums (four). Pérez has also not finished in the top six since the Miami Grand Prix back in May.

As if that was all not enough, there is news that Red Bull shareholders will “discuss” the driver’s future at a meeting following the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

“If you take the difference between Max and Sergio’s points then it’s clear where the problem is,” Red Bull advisor Marko told Sirius XM after the Las Vegas Grand Prix. “There will be a decision — after Abu Dhabi we will get together and present to the shareholders what we think is best and they will make a decision.”

We have heard similar before, so time will tell if Pérez is truly under threat, or of this is more bluster about his position with the team.