Cassidy's vote to impeach Trump could imperil his reelection

Sen. Bill Cassidy’s (R-La.) vote to impeach President-elect Trump could come back to haunt him ahead of his 2026 reelection.

Cassidy was one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump in 2021, and he has at times been vocally critical of the president-elect. Trump, in turn, has bashed him as a “A TOTAL FLAKE” and a “stiff.”

A Cassidy campaign spokesman confirmed to The Hill that the senator is running for reelection, though he hasn't made a formal announcement yet. Some Republicans already expect the Louisiana senator to face a primary challenge as his vote and past remarks receive renewed scrutiny. 

“It's a major problem” for Cassidy, said Republican political consultant Scott Wilfong.

Wilfong said that around the state, he’s noticed Cassidy “is everywhere all the time” and has made “it a priority to deliver for the local governments.”

“Wherever he was four years ago, Bill Cassidy is at least 50 percent better off politically than he was then,” Wilfong said. “Is that enough to get through a Republican primary? I don't know.”

Republicans are bracing for a potentially heated primary as Cassidy, a two-term moderate Senate Republican, gears up for reelection. The Louisiana Republican irked members of his party when he voted alongside six of Senate Republicans to convict Trump, prompting the state party to censure him.

Weeks after the 2022 midterms — in which Republicans and several prominent Trump-backed candidates lost key races — Cassidy pushed back against the idea that Trump was the leader of the GOP. The Louisiana Republican evaded saying whether he would endorse the president-elect during the 2024 election, only saying that he planned “to vote for a Republican for the presidency of the United States.”

Cassidy will hardly be the only Trump skeptic in next year’s Senate. Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) also voted to convict Trump in 2021, while Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) has criticized the president-elect and wouldn’t commit to voting for him last year.

But Trump’s decisive win this month, coupled with the state’s ruby-red politics, is raising questions around whether voters — and the incoming president — will look past the controversial vote enough to give Cassidy another shot at six more years in the Senate.

Many Louisiana Republicans expect Cassidy to get a primary challenger, with some already signaling interest.

State Treasurer John Fleming told USA Today Network he would likely mount a bid, noting "I think I'm viewed as the leading candidate, especially with President Trump being elected."

Greg Buisson, a strategist for Louisiana Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, told The Hill that Skrmetta is considering a Senate run, with a decision expected between the first and second quarter of next year.

Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) invited speculation into a potential bid when he wrote on X on Friday, “Media: ‘Cassidy's campaign team notes that no incumbent U.S. senator has lost in a primary in the past 200 Senate elections across the country…’ Me: ‘Well, you can go ahead and check that box.’”

Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), who was redistricted out of his congressional seat and is leaving Congress after this session, has also been floated as a challenger. There have also been some murmurs around whether former Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) could jump in on the Democrats’ side.

“I still hear people taking Bill Cassidy's name in vain over that impeachment vote, and to a lot of voters that's going to be the single issue that defines him despite all the other good things he has done,” said James Hartman, a Republican consultant. “I think that's gonna be the biggest albatross around his neck. I don't know that the Trump folks are going to forgive him even enough to stay out of it."

Cassidy for his part has brushed off concerns over the impact his impeachment vote could have in 2026.

“No, I mean, it is what it is, and I've done a good job for the state,” Cassidy told The Hill last week. “And good policy is good politics.”

“And if I have a challenger, I have a challenger — but I can't stay up awake at night worried about that,” he said. “There's a wonderful scripture I quoted earlier that ‘the day's own troubles be sufficient for the day.’ And so I got enough to worry about.”

One dynamic that will make Cassidy’s next Senate race different from the one in 2020 is how voters cast their ballots. Louisiana operated under a “jungle” primary system, in which every candidate running for an office was listed under the same ballot, regardless of party. If no candidate outright won at least half of the vote, the top two finishers ran against each other in the general election.

Those electoral systems tend to offer a more favorable terrain for moderate candidates since it forces contenders to court both Republicans and Democrats. But Louisiana is changing to a primary system for certain offices by 2026, including for Senate, where Democrats and Republicans vote in separate primaries, with unaffiliated voters allowed to cast their ballots in either one.

Those primaries generally encourage candidates to run toward their bases and then pivot toward the center in a general election, making it harder for more centrist candidates to break through. Cassidy notably was against changing the state’s electoral system, citing the price tag associated with it and argued Louisianans didn’t support it.

Cassidy’s team for its part has projected confidence, with the spokesman noting that he “has the most cash on hand at the beginning of an election cycle of any incumbent senator in Louisiana history” and that no sitting senator has lost their primary since he’s been in the Senate. His latest available federal campaign filing shows the senator with close to $6 million cash on hand.

While Cassidy could be a top target within his own party, Republicans will still need him as Trump looks to confirm many of his nominees, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health and Human Services secretary, as Cassidy is the chair of the Senate HELP Committee.

Amid speculation around Cassidy’s reelection and whether Trump could get involved, the Louisiana Republican has offered positive remarks on some of Trump’s nominees, and he’s also expressed an openness to do recess appointments if Democrats play hardball — a possible olive branch to Trump.

Mary-Patricia Wray, a political strategist who’s worked with Democrats and Republicans, said that while she sees politicians who have diverse opinions as a “marker of authenticity,” “when you wanna win an election, you have to be aware that you are vulnerable in the middle and on the flanks when you take very divergent viewpoints from your party's mainstream.”

“Looking at the United States Senate over the next couple of years, and particularly in the next six months, a lot of senators are going to have to ask themselves some questions about how their behavior on things like … Senate confirmation will affect them in their elections,” she said.