Canada Close Window 2 with a Narrow Victory Over Mexico

Canada defeats Mexico in a hard-fought 83-73 victory, extending their win streak to 4 games in 2025 AmeriCup Qualifier play.

Before the final game of Window 2 even kicked off, the SMNT made two interesting adjustments. After looking a bit disjointed in the first matchup against the Dominican Republic, which saw Canada turn the ball over 14 times (an AmeriCup Qualifier high), HC Nate Mitchell decided to bring Kadre Gray into the fold, replacing Josip Vrankic. Gray would give the SMNT another ball handler familiar with the system compared to the younger forward Vrankic who made his SMNT debut on Thursday night.

The second adjustment came in the starting lineup, as Mitchell decided to go with a double big alignment, playing Thomas Kennedy alongside Mfiondu Kabengele. Given that Canada’s usual “Winter Core” starting 4, Jackson Rowe, didn’t log a minute tonight despite being active, I assume that this change in the starting came as more of a reactive decision, rather than a proactive tactical move. Regardless, Kennedy stepped up admirably in Rowe’s absence and even outplayed Kabengele tonight.

While Canada started the game off strong, with a 10-0 run early in the first quarter, their play in the second quarter left much to be desired. Despite the decision to bring Gray into the active lineup, Canada continued to be disorganized and were careless with the ball, turning it over a total of 11 times in the first half (for reference in Window 1, they averaged 10 TOV’s per game). Mexico was especially aggressive defending on the perimeter, doing as much as they could to deter rim pressure from Canada’s guards. In the PnR, they often brought two to the ball, blitzing or hedging Canadian ball handlers while rotating well on the backline to cover the rolling big and leaving poorer shooters open for 3. A lot of Canada’s offense that was so successful against the Dominican Republic (i.e. the Trae Bell-Haynes – Mfiondu Kabengele two man game) was stifled, and Canada was forced into 3PA’s late in the shotclock. Sure there was some shooting variance to blame for Canada’s ice-cold 18.5% 3P% (5/27) performance (maybe it was the Saskatoon snow storm), but a lot of it had to due with Mexico’s defense forcing specific players into 3PA’s (Quincy Guerrier, Marcus Carr, Trae Bell-Haynes). The lack of dribble penetration stalled the Canadian offense and allowed Mexico to stay within striking distance.

In the third quarter while the Canadian guards, especially Marcus Carr, did a much better job getting downhill against the Mexican PnR defense (which led to easy lobs for Canada’s bigs), it was the hot shooting of Karim Rodriguez, who hit three 3’s, that buoyed the Mexican offense and helped them reclaim the lead. Canada’s on-ball defense, which showed Mexico’s top offensive players Paul Stoll and Gael Bonilla multiple bodies on drives was unfortunately let down by their poor off-ball execution. Too many breakdowns that ended in an open Rodriguez 3 that they paid the price for. Even with Stoll picking up his fourth foul with 2:56 to go in the third, Canada couldn’t create any separation. At the end of the third, Canada was clinging to a three point lead, with all the momentum on Mexico’s side.

Down the stretch, just as Canada was teetering towards a loss, it was two clutch drives from this window’s unquestioned leader Bell-Haynes, knifing his way through traffic to put Canada up six with two minutes to play. Aaron Best (who was a team high +17) then skipped his way into the paint for a tough underhand floater. On the ensuing defensive possession, Kabengele rotated out from the paint to strip Bonilla and Best punctuated Canada’s victory with a one-handed slam. For all the poor play in the second, third and early stages of the fourth, the SMNT’s veteran-led 13-0 run late in the fourth put the game away.

Looking ahead, the final round of AmeriCup Qualifiers sees Canada once again taking on the Dominican Republic and Mexico, but this time on the road in late February 2025. With a 4-0 record, Canada sits atop Group C and can qualify as early as tonight if Nicaragua pull off an upset and defeats the Dominican Republic.

Tonight’s Three Stars

First Star: Thomas Kennedy

17 PTS (8/9 FG), 5 REB

Kennedy was huge tonight after being inserted into the starting lineup. For much of the game, he was Canada’s most impactful big. Take this sequence early in the 4th as an example:

• Knocks a Bonilla push shot off the rim (allowed “goaltending” in FIBA)
• Taps out an offensive rebound, finishes the lob to put Canada up 3, 68-65

Ultra efficient showing from the Basket Bonn sophomore, who even hit a 3! I often talk about his playmaking, but tonight the play finishing was what kept Canada in the game.

Second Star: Trae Bell-Haynes

20 PTS (7/14 FG), 7 REB, 2 AST, 2 ST

What a way to rise to the occasion. Completely flipped the switch late in the fourth and wrestled back all the momentum from Mexico with two timely drives. I would’ve liked to see him be more aggressive driving and scoring against Stoll earlier in the game, but he led Canada to this gritty win.

Third Star: Mfiondu Kabengele

15 PTS (6/8 FG), 12 REB (5 OREB), 1 STL

It was an uncharacteristically poor start for the always-energetic Mfiondu Kabengele. Had a really egregious turnover throwing a lazy cross court pass from the post in the second quarter and was largely rendered invisible in the first half.

Looked much better in the 2nd half where his 3 OREB were huge lifelines for a struggling Canadian offense. Also, made a key defensive rotation and play against Bonilla late in the fourth that iced the game for Canada. Despite the uninspiring start, somehow Kabengele ended up with a 15 PTS-12 REB double double.

The post Canada Close Window 2 with a Narrow Victory Over Mexico first appeared on Raptors Republic.