Free Agent Profile: Shane Bieber, SP

Shane Bieber, SP

Position: SP, B/T: R/R
Player Data: Age: 29 (05/31/1995)

2024 Traditional Stats: 2 GS, 12.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.917 WHIP, 2-0, 20 SO, 1 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 44.4% K%, 2.2% BB%, 2.66 xERA, 0.08 FIP, 0.59 xFIP, 0.8 fWAR

2023 Traditional Stats: 21 GS, 128.0 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, 6-6, 107 SO, 34 BB
2023 Advanced Stats: 112 ERA+, 20.1% K%, 6.4% BB%, 4.83 xERA, 3.87 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 2.1 fWAR

Rundown

Shane Bieber has only represented the Cleveland Guardians in his six-year big league career. He debuted in 2018, pitching to a 4.55 ERA. However, Bieber proved his dominance in his sophomore campaign, posting a 3.28 ERA in 33 starts with 259 strikeouts and threw three complete games with two of those being shutouts. He placed fourth in American League (AL) Cy Young voting and was named to his first All-Star team, where he was also named the All-Star Game MVP in his home ballpark.

Bieber’s best season came in the shortened 2020 campaign, where he became a Triple Crown winner. In 12 starts, he won a league-high eight games, posted a league-best 1.83 ERA across 77 1/3 innings, and struck out a league-high 122 batters. Not only did he earn a Cy Young, but he placed fourth in AL MVP voting after coming in first in the AL in ERA+ (273) and first in all of baseball in FIP (2.07) and strikeouts per nine innings (14.2).

Injuries plagued Bieber’s 2021 season in Cleveland. He made only 16 starts (including Opening Day) and threw 96 2/3 innings, posting a 3.17 ERA. Even though he spent most of the season on the 60-day injured list, he was named an All-Star. He returned to his dominant ways in 2022, eclipsing the 200-inning mark for the first time since 2019, and won a Gold Glove while placing seventh in AL Cy Young voting. However, injuries followed in 2023 and 2024, with Tommy John surgery effectively ending his 2024 campaign after only two solid starts (12 innings, 20 strikeouts, one walk, 10 hits, zero runs allowed).

The right-handed starter relies on five pitches: a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, knuckle-curve, and cutter. Never a flamethrower, his fastball topped at around 94.3 mph in 2020. However, in 2023, his velocity hit a career-low 89.2 mph. While this is cause for concern, it did tick back up to 91.0 mph in his brief two starts in 2024 before a torn UCL in his throwing arm took him out for the season.

Bieber had been dealing with elbow inflammation as early as the 2023 surgery, missing another significant chunk of the season. While he hit “career-lows” not seen since his rookie year, he still pitched to a 3.80 ERA and struck out 107 batters. Bieber has excelled at limiting walks, never giving up more than 40 in a season (2019). He walked a career-low 8.1% of batters in 2021, still ranking in the 52nd percentile in the league. After that, he’s never ranked lower than the 80th percentile in walk percentage in a season.

Overall, healthy, Bieber is a pitcher who does not walk many while relying on nasty stuff to get swing-and-misses and subsequently several strikeouts. Health is certainly a concern, as he has thrown more than 130 innings in two of his seven big league seasons. However, a healthy Bieber, and one that represents more of his pre-2023 self, is one of the better pitchers in the majors.

Contract

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Bieber will net a one-year, $12 million contract this offseason. Most importantly, Bieber will not be ready until around the trade deadline in 2025. For any team that signs him, it’s the equivalent of acquiring a player at the trade deadline to help boost their chances of making the playoffs.

While some teams might take a gamble and offer him a two-year deal (potentially including an option), Bieber will likely only seek a one-year deal to try to up his stock for the following offseason in hopes of scoring a lucrative multi-year deal.

Recommendation

The Mets’ rotation is thin in 2025. This is an understatement. Kodai Senga and David Peterson are the only locks, leaving three open spots. After their success in 2024, the Mets are playing to win in 2025. President of baseball operations David Stearns took a gamble with contracts on Sean Manaea and Luis Severino last offseason, reclamation projects who declined the Mets’ qualifying offer. There is no doubt the Mets will want to try and strike gold twice.

While that strategy is trickier with Bieber because of his injury, he would add an extra jolt to a rotation come summer if the Mets are in the thick of a playoff race. If not, the team can then flip him to a contender. It’s a riskier deal than a Manaea or Severino, but it’s another low-risk, high-reward the Mets should consider as long as they can fill out the rotation first.

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