Turning Israel’s military achievements into the next administration's diplomatic victories
According to Israel’s former national security advisor, Giora Eiland, “Regarding Gaza ... In warfare, the aim is to engage as little as possible. The ideal outcome is to win without prolonged fighting."
But can you end a war when your adversary is unwilling to concede defeat and release its hostages, demanding Israel permanently leave the Gaza strip to begin the reemergence of Hamas? That is a Hamas victory and a recipe for recurrent disaster.
Israel has dismantled Hamas’ military infrastructure, leaving behind thousands of terrorists emerging to ambush from tens of miles of undiscovered tunnels. At the same time, the jihadists continue to survive and thrive by reselling hundreds of millions of dollars of stolen humanitarian aid.
In Lebanon, Israel has recaptured a narrow strip along the Lebanese-Israeli border from which Hezbollah long planned Oct. 7-like assaults to kidnap and terrorize the Israeli population. I visited one of those assault tunnels in 2019, twenty stories deep, nearly a half mile into Israeli territory, where the group could have massed hundreds of terrorists in a short time.
In this war, Hezbollah has lost a significant portion of its launching pads and missile arsenal. However, it is still a very formidable foe that seems to be inviting Israel into a trap to try to conquer the rest of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River. UNSCR 1701 demanded after the 2006 Second Lebanon War, the disarmament of Hezbollah south of the river, 30 kilometers from the western Galilee Israel-Lebanese border.
The impotent, unwilling and complicit Lebanese Armed Forces, along with United Nations peacekeepers, have allowed Hezbollah under Iranian control to thrive and grow for 17 years, amassing the world’s largest missile arsenal for a non-state actor.
According to the State Department, from 2006-2022, the U.S. provided more than $2.5 billion of American taxpayer money to a failed state’s military without tangible metrics to advance our foreign policy interests. This will not sit well with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who are now tasked with the fiduciary responsibility of protecting the American taxpayer.
Iran — the master puppeteer of Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi and Syrian militias, and the Houthis — are now in direct conflict with Israel. The Iranian emperor has no clothes. Regime change and a vulnerable nuclear program are within reach if the U.S. were to agree it’s time to act.
I am not sure why we are afraid of saying the obvious: We stand with the Iranian people against their repressive regime. There is nothing ambiguous about regime's standard mantra for decades, “Death to America.”
According to Iran expert Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “The core of the problem remains Iran ... only an America that stands with its allies and makes its red lines clear can deter a mushroom cloud over an already turbulent Middle East.”
A new administration will be pulled between two groups. The first comprises those with a clear-eyed perspective of the region — Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Steve Witkoff, Pete Hegseth, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Mike Huckabee and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), the nominees for secretary of State, Middle East envoy, Defense secretary, UN ambassador, ambassador to Israel and national security advisor. The second group is of those who follow the Tucker Carlson school of neo-isolationism. These have not learned lessons of America’s past, when we turned inward and caused more wars than stability.
The caveat is that in too many wars, America's failure to choose unapologetic victory handicapped realistic goals in reasonable timeframes.
President-elect Trump wants Israel to win, for the sake of our national security interests. But how do he and his administration define victory? Diplomatic achievements and enforceable ceasefires flow from strength.
The short time course the president-elect has given Israel to wrap up its wars before he takes office is a gift to patient adversaries, who are more than willing to wait out America's impatience, as best evidenced by the catastrophe of President Biden’s complete American withdrawal from Afghanistan or former President Obama’s premature withdrawal from Iraq, which led to the emergence of ISIS.
Israel has remained restrained in its Lebanese campaign, as Hezbollah has employed the jihadist strategy of using civilian structures as human shields. Several years ago, I was in Jordan during the Syrian civil war and met with the Greek physician in charge of Syrian refugees who had flooded into southern Lebanon. He told me that in every town, city, or village he had visited in south Lebanon, missiles were being stored in people's homes.
If we want Israel to achieve quicker victories, we need to give it a freer hand in Lebanon. That does not mean violating international law. For example, we should support Israel if it calls for the complete evacuation of civilian areas that are being used as terrorist bases, like the Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut. This is the path to victory and ending the war sooner under advantageous diplomatic terms. The failed state of Lebanon can regain its former independence only by profoundly degrading Hezbollah, which currently controls the country.
That is the path toward sustainable diplomatic achievements; Israel is perceived as the victor and setting the stage for the long-awaited Israeli-Saudi normalization. Strength, not Western conciliation and appeasement, the strategy of previous administrations, is the path to long-term quiet.
As for Gaza, the goal must be no Hamas governance or military presence, with Israel’s ability to act daily when terrorists emerge, as they have done in the West Bank since 2003 when they reentered Judea and Samaria during the Second Intifada. If America is resolute, our diplomatic leverage will be substantial.
For Iran, the key to regional instability is that diplomacy will best be achieved with the return of maximum sanctions to starve the regime and its proxies financially, with serious consideration of allowing Israel to target their nuclear facilities as they race to obtain a nuclear weapon.
Let’s begin by training Israeli pilots on B-52 bombers that can deliver the bunker buster missiles to hit deeply embedded nuclear targets. The threat will force Iran to the negotiating table with a diplomatic outcome in our interests, unlike the Iran nuclear deal of 2015, which allowed the leading state sponsor of terror the right to enrich uranium with ineffective inspections and no restraints on their ballistic missile production.
When does diplomacy work in the Middle East? When there is no daylight between the U.S. and Israel, and Israel is perceived as the victor. Israel and the new administration must coordinate a strategy for American interests to leverage Israeli tactical military achievements into definitive strategic diplomatic victories.
Eric R. Mandel is the director of the Middle East Political Information Network and senior security editor for the Jerusalem Post’s Jerusalem Report.