Caleb Williams is a sine wave of glory and frustration

Caleb Williams has gone through expected growing pains as a rookie quarterback. I’m not sure anyone thought his debut season would be this much of a roller coaster two-thirds of the way through 2024.

Williams got off to a slow start to begin his career, throwing a pair of touchdowns against four interceptions in the Chicago Bears’ 1-2 start. Then, signs of life. Williams cut his sack rate, found open targets downfield and threw seven touchdowns in a three-game winning streak that made the Bears a sudden playoff threat.

We know what happened next. The first overall pick in last spring’s draft struggled against the Washington Commanders and lost to the second overall pick on a Hail Mary. That malaise lasted three games, settled Williams in as a bottom-10 quarterback and made 2024 look like every other disappointing season the Bears have had the last four decades.

Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired. This led to a Week 11 directive for Williams to get rid of the ball quickly and run more. His Week 12 instruction, presumably, was to stand up to the Minnesota Vikings’ perpetual blitz machine. Well, good news:

WHAT A PLAY

: #MINvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/TwqIJEneVJ

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 24, 2024

Williams found multiple ways to break the Vikings’ top-ranked defense. He escaped pressure and lofted deep throws to the sideline. He stood in the pocket and uncorked lasers downfield.

Caleb Williams is throwing absolute lasers today pic.twitter.com/X1mNmyodoJ

— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 24, 2024

He utilized that perfect placement as chaos unrolled around him. This third down conversion would have been his third-straight on a scoring drive Sunday. Instead, it ended in zero points because Keenan Allen was out of bounds by a toenail and Cairo Santos only knows how to kick line drives, but STILL.

three straight third down conversions for Caleb Williams. two on darts, one on this damn near perfect sideline placement pic.twitter.com/Yvz412umsK

— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 24, 2024

This is the crux of Williams’s rookie season. If we track his passer rating on a week-by-week basis, you get this janky sin wave of occasional greatness and troubling slumps:

If advanced stats are more your style, here’s that chart in terms of expected points added (EPA) per game:

That’s four awesome games, five very bad ones and a single neutral performance. At his best, Williams is a flat-out headache (complimentary). He can throw frozen ropes through tight coverage up the seam. He can float perfect rainbows to streaking targets down the sideline. He can escape pressure in clutch situations to give his team new life.

Caleb Williams just feels different than the other QBs the Bears have broken pic.twitter.com/mBdgx1b8YX

— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 24, 2024

Problems persist, mostly in the way you’d expect from a young passer. There are overthrows on the run and the occasional happy feet that breed inaccuracy. There are also moments where the adjustment from college to pros is apparent and he merely underestimates the athleticism of an edge rusher or cornerback.

Caleb Williams has been dealing today but he underestimated Stephon Gilmore here (and nearly got Keenan Allen crushed by Harrison Smith) pic.twitter.com/RfieTMLPQg

— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 24, 2024

On Sunday, he was great.

The Bears aren’t doing anything revolutionary to make Williams a viable franchise quarterback. They’re building an offense around the limitations in front of him. Where Waldron’s game plan emphasized composure in the pocket and entirely too much time dancing and waiting for routes to develop, interim OC Thomas Brown has simplified the game plan.

In came a litany of quick routes and an edict to take off running once things got uncomfortable. Williams’s average target distance in Weeks 1-10 was eight yards downfield. It was 6.6 in Week 11 and 7.2 in Week 12 as his time to throw plummeted in step. His 2.42 seconds between snap and throw last week was a career low. On Sunday it was right back at the same number again.

This doesn’t mean he’s merely a pop-a-shot savant. When given the opportunity to read a defense, he’s understands exactly where to find quarter and create game-changing gains.

game on the line, one big completion needed to set up a game-tying field goal, 7 Vikings in the secondary and Caleb Williams does this pic.twitter.com/s2jx9DaVEZ

— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 24, 2024

Removing Waldron from the equation and creating a simple-but-devastating playbook has been a boon for Chicago. The Bears always had the talent to generate plays downfield but lacked the blocking to properly set them up. Brown has found ways to create that space, whether it’s been unlocking his quarterback’s legs and turning potential blitzers into QB spies or simply resorting to more play-action handoffs to buy time after Waldron’s offense couldn’t even crack the top 25 when it came to these fakes.

The Bears have made a concerted effort to treat Williams both like a rookie quarterback and as a truly special playmaker. He’s been given more passing plays with simple reads and quick-ditch options. He’s also been given the freedom to lean into his instincts and take off where appropriate, harnessing the off-script wizardry that won him a Heisman Trophy.

That hasn’t led to wins for Chicago. Given head coach Matt Eberflus’s uninspired coaching and seemingly inevitable firing, that may be a good thing. What’s important is that Williams looks not only like a quarterback worthy of being the top overall draft pick but the kind of franchise-altering headache that could haunt the NFC North for years to come.