Why is the race for California’s 45th congressional district so close?

Created four years ago to solidify the political clout of Little Saigon’s Vietnamese American community, California’s 45th congressional district has become one of the nation’s most narrowly contested House seats.

And with votes still being counted in a race that’s still too close to call, experts say the presence of a Vietnamese American on the general election ballot — a first for CA-45 — is a possible tipping point in a contest that could come down to a handful of votes.

On Thursday, the latest tally in CA-45 showed Democratic challenger Derek Tran, a lawyer with longstanding ties to Little Saigon, with a 480-vote lead over Rep. Michelle Steel, a Republican from Seal Beach who is hoping to win her third term in office.

The district, which runs from the Little Saigon cities of Westminster, Garden Grove and Fountain Valley to include a slice of Los Angeles County, is one of just three seats in the country that the Associated Press has yet to call more than two weeks after Election Day.

The current tally — which could result in a voluntary recount if one or both candidates seek one within five days after Dec. 6 — is only slightly more dramatic than the 2022 election. In that one, Steel beat challenger Jay Chen by 10,494 votes, or 4.4 points, a race that could be viewed as traditionally close if not a nail biter.

The increasingly narrow results in CA-45 elections speak volumes about the makeup of the district, the candidates, and political division within the nation’s biggest Vietnamese American community.

One factor that experts suggest is playing a role this year is turnout, which goes up during presidential elections and falls back in midterms. The county’s latest tallies suggest turnout — countywide and in CA-45 — will be about 20% higher this year than it was in 2022.

“It’s a presidential election year … so additional people are going to go and cast their ballots,” said Sara Sadhwani, an assistant professor of politics at Pomona College.

Another factor is the voters themselves. The district is nearly evenly divided along partisan lines and features a majority-minority electorate, including a significant Asian population alongside a sizable Latino community. 

The division in CA-45 isn’t limited to questions about Congress. As of Thursday, former President Donald Trump has about 48.8% of CA-45’s votes and Vice President Kamala Harris holding 48.3%. (Countywide, the latest numbers suggest Harris will beat Trump by about 2.5 percentage points.)

But local political experts say the deciding factor this year, on this ballot, might be Tran’s background.

Though the general election ballots in this cycle and in 2022 featured Asian candidates, Tran is the first Vietnamese American to come close to representing Little Saigon. Steel is Korean American and ’22 challenger Chen is Taiwanese American.

While such racial and ethnic specificity might be a subtle issue in some contests, Sadhwani suggested it might prove decisive this year in CA-45. The legally mandated redrawing of congressional seats that followed the 2020 Census — and enacted in time for the 2022 election cycle — was specifically aimed at boosting Vietnamese American electoral clout. Westminster, in particular, is historically recognized as the point where Little Saigon took root along Bolsa Avenue, starting in the mid-1970s.

“Previously, the neighborhoods that incorporate Little Saigon were split between three different congressional districts,” said Sadhwani, who helped create all 52 House seats in California as one of 14 members — five Democrats, five Republicans and five people not affiliated with either major party — of the state’s 2020 Citizens Redistricting Commission.

“In the beginning of the process, Vietnamese Americans had a strong voice, calling in on a nightly basis to ask commissioners to keep Little Saigon together.”

Others who track the intersection of political power and geography agree.

“We have more competition in California than we used to because of independent redistricting,” said Kim Alexander, president of the California Voter Foundation, a nonpartisan group that advocates for secure and trustworthy election processes.

“These districts lines are not drawn for politicians. They’re drawn for voters, and that means these incumbents don’t have the natural advantage they used to have when you conduct elections after redistricting.”

Another factor that is different this election is ballot curing. While California already had laws that protect voters from being disenfranchised, Alexander said legislation that kicked into effect this year has strengthened those guardrails. Senate Bill 77, she noted, allows election officials to contact voters via phone, email or text to verify signatures, rather than only by mail. Additionally, Assembly Bill 626 permits voters to return their ballots in person, without an envelope, so they can be counted immediately.

It’s unclear how many ballots are being counted that way, but in a race as close as CA-45 literally every vote might matter.

“You’re really seeing the full effect of those reforms in this election cycle as ballot curing has become the new normal of the post-election season … in races that are too close to call.”

But another factor is as old as politics itself — race and ethnicity.

Jon Gould, dean of the UCI School of Social Ecology, said Tran’s background as a Vietnamese American is critical.

“What that means is that he can reduce his losses among Vietnamese American voters in places like Westminster and Garden Grove, which have historically been very Republican areas,” Gould said. “(Tran) has, over time, been known in the Vietnamese American community, and is trusted by a number of people there.

“So the cushion you would normally expect to see for Steel in that area is not as great as it was in the past,” he added.

Unofficial data from the county registrar suggests that’s playing out.

As of late Thursday, Tran is winning a slight majority of votes counted in Garden Grove, while Steel is taking about 48%. Two years ago Steel won that city with about 53% of the vote. Also, Steel is taking just over 50% of the votes cast in Westminster, compared with about 57% during her winning campaign in ’22.

But Gould was quick to note that Tran’s quality as a candidate isn’t just about race or ethnicity.

“The Democrats ran a Vietnamese American who has strong ties to the community,” he said. “This isn’t the cynical notion of ‘put a Vietnamese name on the ballot and the Vietnamese voters will vote for him.’”

Gould added that the community may have developed a level of trust with Tran that they didn’t necessarily have with other Democrats who previously went up against Steel. In fact, Tran’s campaign has repeatedly pointed to internal polling that showed him making inroads with Vietnamese voters in the district.

Late in the race, her campaign suggested Tran is a communist sympathizer, an idea that traditionally is a flashpoint for many older Vietnamese American voters. Also, Steel made a comment during the campaign that she is “more Vietnamese” than Tran, an assertion that doesn’t hold up factually.

“I think it struck some people as odd. ‘Why is a Korean American accusing a Vietnamese American who lives in America of being communist?’” Gould said. “It didn’t have legs.”

But Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC, noted that anti-communist messaging could appeal to Vietnamese American voters, especially in Little Saigon. Also hard to ignore, he said, is Steel’s strong presence in a community where she has built a reputation over years of engagement.

“There’s a reason she’s brought (anti-communist messaging) up in so many elections,” Grose said. “Attacking an opponent as being a communist sympathizer could be an effective attack in a place like CA-45.”

But Tran’s own connection with the community — and Steel’s history of having using the same tactic repeatedly, against other candidates — may have reduced its potency, Grose noted.

“I do wonder, especially if she ends up losing … if the argument doesn’t have the same teeth that it did previously.”