How Will The Trump Administration Handle The Houthis?
Shortly after Donald Trump was declared the forty-seventh president of the United States, a social media account circulated a claim that the Houthis’ military spokesman had declared a cessation of their operations in the Red Sea. The claims were quickly proven untrue, with the spokesman’s actual account having not released a statement since November 3.
On the contrary, Houthi leader Abdel Malik al-Houthi made a statement only days after the election criticizing the incoming administration and dismissing the possibility that Trump could end the Israel-Palestine conflict. He also threatened to continue attacks in the Red Sea. This left many wondering how exactly the Trump administration would respond to the Iran-backed rebels who have advanced from a local militia to a force capable of disrupting global maritime traffic and striking Israeli territory in a matter of years.
Some analysts have pointed to Trump’s statements criticizing the Biden administration’s strikes on the campaign trail and desire to avoid getting involved in so-called “forever wars” to argue that the new administration will take a softer approach to the Yemeni rebels. However, global attention on the Houthis has only expanded since Trump was last in office. The Houthis claim to have targeted 202 vessels since the start of their maritime campaign and have targeted Israeli territory with missiles.
Their maritime campaign has been so intense that Maersk, the world’s largest container shipping company, reported in September that maritime traffic through the Suez Canal dropped 66 percent over the course of a year as companies rerouted to avoid Houthi attacks. If attacks continue, it could mean prolonged disruptions and high shipping costs as freighters either opt for longer transits or pay tolls in exchange for safe passage through the waterways, potentially damaging the economy and passing on costs to consumers.
Aside from the attacks themselves, there are growing concerns that the Houthis are forging relationships with other global actors like China and Russia, which is reportedly in negotiations with Iran to provide the group with advanced anti-ship missiles. At the same time, the group has expanded its operations across the region with reports that they are operating in Syria and cooperating with Al Qaeda’s Somali affiliate, al-Shabaab.
Even before the Houthis posed a major threat to international maritime traffic and the United States’ top ally in the Middle East, the Trump administration came down hard on the rebels. Over his four years in office, Trump provided significant military support for Saudi Arabia, which was still conducting operations in Yemeni territory, including advanced military equipment like air-defense systems, fighter jets, and bombs through several large arms agreements, including a $110 billion arms package in 2017. He also strengthened intelligence sharing, logistical assistance, and aerial refueling for Saudi and Emirati military operations. Shortly before leaving office, he branded the group with its first-ever Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) designation and named three of the organization’s most senior leaders—Abdul Malik al-Houthi, Abd al-Khaliq Badr al-Din al-Houthi, and Abdullah Yahya al Hakim—as specially designated global terrorists.
Thus, we can expect Trump to reinstate the Houthis’ FTO designation. The Biden administration revoked the label almost immediately after entering office due to concerns about its humanitarian consequences (Biden re-listed the Houthis as “Specially Designated Global Terrorists” in January 2024). Although the FTO redesignation will have limited impact on the Houthis due to their meager financial connections to the West, the Trump administration sees the designation as symbolic of their resolve against the group’s behavior. Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), co-drafted a bipartisan letter earlier this month to Secretary Antony Blinken calling on the Biden administration to redesignate the Houthis. Similarly, his pick for National Security Advisor, Congressman Michael Waltz (R-FL), spearheaded a similar effort in November 2023.
And while Trump will likely avoid deploying United States troops on the ground in Yemen, we could see his administration use a combination of strikes on high-ranking Houthi leaders and military sites to weaken the group. In fact, Rubio himself penned an op-ed in National Review where he criticized President Biden’s reluctance to authorize strikes against senior Houthi leadership and weapons depots, claiming that the administration only approved strikes on drone launch sites and empty weapons depots. In that same article, he also condemned the Biden administration’s refusal to arm allies in the region fighting the Houthis, underscoring that the Trump administration will likely expand support for regional actors combatting the group. This could include military, intelligence, and logistical support for the Israelis in their strikes on Houthi-controlled territory, enhanced military support for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates should they decide to resume operations in Yemen territory, or governance and military assistance to local Yemeni forces allied with the Presidential Leadership Council and the Southern Transitional Council.
While Yemen has often been treated as a low priority in the past, the Houthis’ new role in leading Iran’s anti-Israel operations will put the group squarely in the sights of “Iran Hawks.” But perhaps more importantly, the impact of the group’s maritime attacks on the global economy and possible collaboration with U.S. rivals like Russia and China will certainly elevate the issue in the eyes of President Trump, even if the group ceases attacks on maritime traffic and Israeli territory.
Emily Milliken is the associate director for the Atlantic Council’s N7 Initiative.
Image: Mohammad Bash / Shutterstock.com.