Conservative populism’s political potential is bigger than Trump
As big as Donald Trump’s victory was, his conservative populism’s political potential is bigger still.
While the primary post-election focus has been on where Trump overperformed, there are significant areas where he underperformed too. And if Republicans could capture some of the votes Trump left on the table, they could significantly exceed Trump’s impressive 2024 victory margin in the future.
Trump’s Election Day triumph was stunning. Despite establishment media’s fawning coverage of Harris and her enormous money advantage, Trump won the popular vote — the first time a Republican has done so in 20 years. He also swept all seven battleground states (both Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 had won only six of the seven) and he won a crushing 312-226 electoral vote victory.
Trump not only beat Harris decisively but again trounced expectations. In Real Clear Politics’ last average of national polling, he trailed Harris by 0.1 percentage point. In three successive presidential elections, Trump gained in popular vote percentage, from 46.1 percent in 2016 to 46.9 percent in 2020, to 50 percent this time. He has also beaten polling predictions in each of the last two races — by 2.1 percentage points in 2024 and by 2.7 percentage points in 2020.
Exit polling also showed that Trump reversed the “gender gap.” Democrats won women by 8 points but lost men by 13. He won 13 percent of the Black vote and 46 percent of the Hispanic vote. He effectively neutralized Harris on the abortion issue, tying 49-49 percent among voters saying abortion should be legal in most cases.
But if anyone tells you that Trump could not have done better, that person is simply wrong.
Trump underperformed among the two biggest groups of ideology voters — conservatives and moderates. Conservatives made up 34 percent of 2024 voters. Although Trump won 90 percent of their votes, he also lost 9 percent of them.
That probably seems small until you consider that this should be his ideological base, and the impact that this loss has on overall vote tallies. A conservative populist should win nearly all conservatives. Conservative votes left on the table are missed opportunities; when they go to your opponent, they are a double-loss, becoming votes you must make up elsewhere.
To measure the political impact of Trump losing 9 percent of conservatives, simply multiply it by the percentage of conservatives in the electorate. The impact is 3.1 percent of the popular vote. Considering that Trump won the popular vote by just 2 percent, sweeping Conservatives would have taken his vote total to 53.1 percent.
The political impact of Trump’s underperformance among moderates is greater still. Moderates made up 42 percent of 2024 voters. Trump lost them 42-57 percent. Harris's advantage among Moderates amounted to approximately 7.1 percent of the popular vote.
There is no reason conservative populism should not have at least an equal appeal to moderates. After all, Trump was able to tie Harris among voters who said abortion should be legal in most cases.
The political impact of simply splitting the moderate vote would be astounding. At 42 percent of the 2024 electorate, if Trump had swung 8.5 percent of Moderates to him, it would have equated to 3.6 percent of the overall popular vote.
Eliminating Trump’s underperformance among conservatives and moderates would have combined for an additional 6.6 percent of the popular vote. This would have brought Trump’s popular vote victory to something more like 57 percent to 42 percent — a true landslide. That would put Harris below what Bill Clinton won in his 1992 three-way victory, while placing Trump in the same stratosphere as Ronald Reagan’s resounding 1984 victory.
As the numbers show, the potential of Trump’s conservative populism, while manifested this November, is far from being fully realized. When it is, there will be a full and lasting political alignment.
As big as Trump’s victory was, he did not fully tap conservative populism’s potential. His relatively poor net-favorable rating — minus-7 points in exit polling — undermined conservative populism’s full potential. Far from diminishing Trump’s victory, this actually reinforces his accomplishment. But it also puts this victory into context.
Trump’s political victory was a personal one. It was a victory of common sense over Democrats' insistence on emphasizing positions that Americans either did not care about at all or cared about and opposed.
Since the Bush era, Democrats have undergone a collective migration away from the American populace and toward the elite. This has created a vacuum in the contest for the people’s support. Eight years ago, Trump intuitively understood this and stepped into that vacuum. He has firmly remained there for three successive elections — increasing his popular vote share and total each time. He has done so, despite accumulating political baggage that would have undone seemingly any other candidate.
All this attests to Trump’s political innovation. It also attests to conservative populism’s tremendous political potential for 2028 and beyond.
J.T. Young has over three decades of experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, and the White House Office of Management and Budget, and representing a Fortune 20 company. He is the author of the new book, “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left.”