1st-and-10: Field goal decision least of issues with Bears' Matt Eberflus

It’s probably not a coincidence that the coach of the once-downtrodden NFC North team that has overtaken the Packers and Vikings is a risk-taker, even to a fault.

The power of Dan Campbell’s aggressive style has fueled the Lions’ rapid rise — from 3-13 in his first season in 2021 to 9-8 in 2022, 12-5 last season and an NFC-leading 9-1 this year. The Lions led the NFL in fourth-down attempts in 2022-23 with 77. And they were second in two-point conversion attempts with 14.

Oh, for the Bears to have a coach who throws caution to the wind, right? But as off-putting as it is to see Matt Eberflus fear the worst-case scenario in a moment of extreme decision — a fumble, a false start, a holding penalty or a negative rush that might have made Cairo Santos’ 46-yard kick longer rather than shorter — even a risk-taker like Campbell plays that same game.

Just last week, Campbell was in a similar scenario against the Texans at NRG Stadium. With the Lions driving for a winning field goal in a 23-23 game, running back David Montgomery gained one yard to the Texans 37 with 44 seconds left. With an opportunity to move rookie kicker Jake Bates closer than 52 yards, Campbell instead let the clock run down to four seconds.

Bates’ kick barely edged inside of the left upright, giving the Lions an invigorating come-from-behind 26-23 victory and sparing Campbell the kind of second-guessing that Eberflus faced in the aftermath of the loss to the Packers.

When even a coach like Campbell will kick a 52-yarder (no sure thing, even indoors) instead of risking a negative play, you know the risk-reward decision on a game-winning field goal is at least debatable.

For Marc Trestman and Matt Nagy, fearing the worst-case scenario was a red flag because it was contrary to their progressive offensive philosophy. For Eberflus, it was just another decision that blew up in his face — an ill-fated 50-50 decision that was magnified because he’s gotten so many other things wrong this season.

Eberflus is in an all-too-familiar downward spiral that was the ruin of Trestman and Nagy. On the opening drive of the game, Jordan Love threw a 15-yard touchdown pass to Jayden Reed when the Bears were still making personnel substitutions. The Bears were penalized for too many men on the field and for defensive tackle Zacch Pickens being offside.

“We shouldn’t have sent them in. There was no sub there,” Eberflus said. “We should’ve done better there.”

On the opening drive of a critical game in Week 11 of Season 3, that’s a bigger knock on Eberflus than fearing a negative play before the field goal.

But that’s the kind of rut Eberflus is in. He was OK with a handoff to center Doug Kramer in a critical moment against the Commanders and that blew up on him. He played it tighter against the Packers and that blew up on him, too.

His escape from this predicament is narrow. At 4-6, the Bears will have to win at least two road games — out of four against the Lions, 49ers, Vikings and Packers — to finish with a winning record and possibly make the playoffs.

It will take quite a turnaround for that to happen. Replacing Shane Waldron with Thomas Brown was a good move. It will have to turn into a masterstroke for Eberflus to survive.

Taking a gamble

2. Fearing the worst-case scenario is often a bad look for coaches, but the fear is not unwarranted. Even the great Kyle Shanahan was burned by ignoring that fear in an even bigger moment, as the Falcons’ offensive coordinator in Super Bowl LI against the Patriots.

Shanahan and head coach Dan Quinn (and quarterbacks coach Matt LaFleur) had the Super Bowl in their hands with 28-20 lead and a first down at the Patriots 22 with 4:40 left in the fourth quarter. Just run three times, kick a 40-yard field goal and the Patriots have to score twice in the final 3:30 to win.

But after Davonta Freeman lost a yard on first down, Shanahan called a pass play and Matt Ryan was sacked for a 10-yard loss. Then offensive tackle Jake Matthews was called for holding on a pass play for another 10-yard loss. After an incomplete pass on third down, the Falcons had to punt on fourth-and-33 from their 45. And the rest is history.

History lesson

3. The Packers blocked kick is the latest memorable field goal moment in Bears-Packers history.

In 1999, Bears defensive lineman Bryan Robinson blocked Ryan Longwell’s 28-yard attempt on the final play of the game to give the Bears a 14-13 victory — the week that Walter Payton passed away. That ended the Packers' 10-game winning streak over the Bears — the longest in the history of the rivalry, until Sunday.

In 1980, Bears defensive lineman Alan Page blocked Chester Marcol’s 35-yard attempt in overtime — but the ball deflected off Page's facemask right back to Marcol, who ran 25 yards for a touchdown that gave the Packers a 12-6 victory.

3a. Speaking of Bears-Packers lore, Love’s 60-yard pass to Christian Watson that led to Love’s winning touchdown sneak was reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers’ 60-yard pass to Jordy Nelson that led to the game-winning field goal in a 30-27 Packers victory at Soldier Field in 2016. In fact, both pass plays were from the exact same yard line — from the Packers’ 26 to the Bears’ 14.

That’s when Vic Fangio had undrafted rookie Cre’Von Leblanc in single coverage against Nelson — and regretted it. Not even Fangio — the only home run hire the Bears have had since GM Jerry Angelo was fired after the 2011 season (and the only extra-base hit, in fact) had his Halas Hall Effect moments.

Upper limits

4. Statistically, 43 yards is the breaking-point distance on field goals this season.

NFL kickers have made 90.6% from 40-42 yards (48 of 53, no blocks); 70.1% from 43-46 yards (54 of 77, three blocks); and 73.3% from 47-55 yards (129 of 176, five blocks), per stathead.com.

Deja vu

5. The last time a 46-yard field goal was blocked was in 2019 — and Eberflus was in the building for that one, too. The Colts’ Adam Vinatieri had his 46-yard attempt blocked by the Texans’ Dane Cruikshank and Tye Smith returned it 63 yards for a tie-breaking touchdown in a 31-17 loss.

There had been 135 consecutive 46-yard attempts without a block before Sunday.

Familiar feeling

6. Bears special teams coordinator Richard Hightower became a victim of his own success Sunday.

The dominating performance of Hightower’s 49ers special teams against the Packers in the divisional playoffs after the 2021 regular season — a blocked field goal, a blocked punt for a tying touchdown and a 45-yard kickoff return in a 13-10 victory — was the clinching blow that led to the Packers firing special teams coordinator Maurice Drayton and hiring Rich Bisaccia, the mastermind of the field goal block Sunday.

Not like the other

7. The Jim Harbaugh Effect: One running play in similar scenarios — driving for a winning field goal — illustrated one difference between Harbaugh’s Chargers (7-3) and Eberflus’ Bears (4-6) on Sunday.

On first-and-10 from the Packers 30 with 35 seconds left, Bears blockers went straight ahead as Roschon Johnson gained two yards and the Bears settled for a 46-yard field goal attempt.

On first-and-10 from the Bengals 29 with 26 seconds left, the Chargers used a pulling guard to create space for J.K. Dobbins, who ran 29 yards for a touchdown with 18 seconds left to give the Chargers a 34-27 victory.

Saving the day ... almost

8. In typical Bears fashion, their saving grace in the latest loss to the Packers was a performance by quarterback Caleb Williams that was mediocre by Packers standards — 231 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, a 95.0 passer rating; plus six rushes for 70 yards.

But extricating the Bears from a third-and-19 at the Bears 21-yard line after back-to-back sacks was a Rodgers-level achievement for Williams.

Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields each rallied the Bears to victories with fourth-quarter drives — Trubisky with a 25-yard pas to Allen Robinson on fourth-and-15 in a 16-14 road victory over the Broncos in 2019; Fields with a 36-yard pass to DJ Moore on third-and-10 in a 12-10 road victory over the Vikings last year. But even in defeat, Williams back-to-back passes to Rome Odunze were a level above those performances.

Montgomery roars

9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week — Lions running back David Montgomery had 15 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns in a 52-6 rout of the Jaguars. Montgomery has 23 rushing touchdowns in 24 games over two seasons with the Lions. He had 26 rushing touchdowns in 60 games over four seasons with the Bears.

Seven to go

10. Bear-ometer — 5-12: vs. Vikings (L); at Lions (L); at 49ers (L); at Vikings (L); vs. Lions (L); vs. Seahawks (W); at Packers (L).