49ers mailbag: Dissecting defensive doom, Shanahan’s fate
SANTA CLARA – Before shipping off to Green Bay and then Buffalo over the next two Sundays, the .500 49ers (5-5) have some questions to answer, or at least we do in this Week 12 mailbag via our social media fan club:
Can you please ask Shanahan why he’s so conservative with his fourth-down decisions? (@FowleBall15)
They’re 3-of-7 this season on fourth-down calls, just under their average pace (7-of-15) in Kyle Shanahan’s 7 1/2 seasons, only one of which they finished in the top half of the league for fourth-down efficiency (tied for sixth in 2019; 7-of-12).
Shanahan said Monday he hypothetically would have gone for it (or kicked a field goal, but definitely not punt) on fourth-and-1 from the Seattle 37-yard line … if officials correctly penalized the Seahawks for calling consecutive timeouts with 2:45 remaining. Officials told him there was no double timeout, that the Seahawks “alerted them something was wrong with something the refs were doing and then they fixed it.”
However, Mike Pereira, a Fox Sports analyst and the NFL’s former officiating czar, told KNBR 680-AM his film review showed “it is clear Seattle asked for a second timeout, and what you are to do when they are not entitled to it … you ignore it. It did not get ignored; it got granted. It is a 5-yard penalty even though the official shouldn’t have stopped it.”
How’s this “Wide-9” Defense working out for the 49ers? (@Bigfella1911)
I’ve grown skeptical with its predictability, of lining defensive ends up extra wide to pursue the quarterbacks, who often duck inside or lob a pass over defenders. Seattle’s Geno Smith escaped through the defensive front on his two late scrambles, seizing more so on interior lineman Yetur Gross-Matos’ lack of gap integrity, as Kyle Shanahan confirmed Monday.
What’s also maddening is the 49ers’ stubborn insistence on a four-man pass rush and a reluctance to blitz more, even when Nick Bosa is sidelined by injury and/or when Seattle is starting a new center that could be prone to pressures up the gut.
We don’t have the quality depth on the defensive line to be a contender this year. (@devious_db)
No question (literally). The 49ers did not draft a single defensive lineman and instead acquired veterans – no Pro Bowlers or All-Pros — to stock its most important unit and complement Bosa, who was playing a career-high percentage of snaps before oblique injuries forced him to exit before Sunday’s fourth-quarter freefall for a 20-17 loss.
Whether or not the 49ers have Bosa on Sunday at Green Bay, they still need Leonard Floyd to again wallop the Packers (9 1/2 sacks in 10 games against them). They’ll also need to get creative by sending linebackers and defensive backs to bolster their other rushers, specifically Gross-Matos, Sam Okuayinonu and Rob Beal. Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott have been OK inside, but depth concerns saw the 49ers trade for Khalil Davis and he was a healthy scratch Sunday.
What is the disconnect on D that they allow teams back into games and in three division games allow the team to win? (@TheReal_ToddM)
A lack of cohesion, communication, and do-your-job-ness. The cast is vastly different from past playoff runs, aside from Bosa, Warner, Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward, who is back after a two-week bereavement leave. The defensive front regressed. The safeties have growing pains. Linebacker De’Vondre Campbell again proved a liability in coverage playing ahead of Dee Winters, who earlier made a fourth-down stop.
This team feels like it misses Dre a lot more than people think. Worth rushing him back? Or just wait? (@rp_tw) Is (De’Vondre) Campbell really that big of a problem, or am I imagining it? His linebacking looks horrible to me. (@ninerempire209)
Dre Greenlaw’s Achilles comeback is unfolding behind the scenes, and that could change if he joins practices next week, per Shanahan’s timeline. As for his fill-in, Campbell, he’ll make a solid tackle in the box or near the line, then miss more beyond it. Eric Kendricks’ de-committing in free agency seems like a subtle but significant setback.
Jordan Mason was on a record-breaking pace for rush yards, and now getting zero carries behind a clearly hindered McCaffery. Are you surprised they didn’t keep Mason as the feature back and use 22 more as a third-down back and split wide on early downs until CM was healthy? (@macdanny09)
We shouldn’t be stunned that Mason’s workload Sunday was just two snaps — and two carries for 13 yards. This seems more to do with getting Christian McCaffrey back up to speed than protecting Mason’s month-old shoulder sprain. McCaffrey got 23 touches in 59 snaps (106 yards) on Sunday, and while he rued the fact he missed a lane or two, this may have been the 49ers’ worst run blocking all season.
The 49ers need OL help. Any plans to replace Brendel and/or McKivitz? (@work_harder58)
No such plans in the works until the offseason, presumably. The 49ers had blocking issues across the board in what was Christian McCaffrey’s home debut this season. NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger compiled a 2 1/2 -minute lowlight reel of the 49ers’ woes, and neither center Jake Brendel nor right tackle Colton McKivitz were included, because there were enough missed blocks by others, including backup tight end Eric Saubert and No. 3 tackle Jaylon Moore who were deployed to essentially replace George Kittle. McKivitz had back-to-back gaffes (false start; sack allowed) but otherwise had company in Sunday’s woes.
Why can’t we get (receiver) separation? Scheme? Slow? Old? (@traviscampbell79)
Defenses are wise to the 49ers’ ways, so they clog the middle of the field or anticipate how to cover on blitzes when and where the 49ers are vulnerable. Deebo Samuel’s lack of production is most galling, but he did reach over 19.5 mph on two plays the previous game in Tampa, so don’t put him out to pasture yet. Ricky Pearsall certainly isn’t old but is adapting to a complex scheme that’s looked more explosive last season as Brock Purdy gained Shanahan’s trust.
If a change is made, it it more likely to be Kyle, John or both? (@supanove)
It’s more likely to be the Jets, the Saints, the Jaguars, the Cowboys, the Raiders, the Bears, the Giants, the Browns and typically another couple other clubs who sack their coaches. So many have it worse than the 49ers, whose odds to make a move still seem extremely remote. Shanahan and his hand-picked GM, Lynch, have arguably been the 49ers’ best tandem in their roles since Bill Walsh and John McVay. That doesn’t make them tied together forever. One could stay, one could go. Both should stay. But with the Super Bowl drought is in its 30th year, maybe ownership approaches this like a Fortune 500 company needing to appease shareholders and change CEOs.
Do you see a Bill Walsh-style trade with one of their best players? Fred? Kittle? (@j_edward_drummond)
Walsh imported rather than exported via trade (see: Steve Young, Fred Dean), so you’re likely referring to his belief of unloading players a year early rather than a year late. Warner is the heart of that defense for many years to come. As for Kittle, the 49ers just lost for the 11th time in the last 14 games he has not played, so his all-around worth (receiver, blocker, leader) remains incredibly valuable in Year 8; his contract voids after next season so an extension or options must be explored after this season. Deebo Samuel’s salary cap hit would be twice as much to move him before June than to keep him at $15 million, and his trade value is certainly not ascending.
Why were CMC and Jennings the only targeted players on offense? (@freestyle_03) Why didn’t Brock throw to Pearsal or Saubert? (Bill Fisher, via email)
Sure seemed like it on Sunday. Or else Purdy targeted the open field for his scrambling legs. With Kittle sidelined by a hamstring injury , the 49ers figured to spread the ball. Instead, other targets went to Samuel (caught 4-of-7 for 22 yards), Pearsall (0-of-2), Kyle Juszczyk (2-of-2, 12 yards) and Eric Saubert (1-of-1, 7 yards). Shanahan said the Seahawks’ defense dictated shorter throws and no deep shots. No risk it, no biscuit.
Who holds Shanahan accountable? I remember a 2014 game when Jed put Harbaugh on blast via Twitter. This season has the feel of 2014, with the major exception being a lack of accountability for Shanahan. (@n8ivpatriot)
Jed York learned not to take his in-house venting onto social media. He’s instead mixed business with pleasure, and a seemingly sincere friendship with his coach makes one wonder how far they’ll keep going to accommodate Shanahan.
The 49ers have really not been in sync since the Super Bowl loss. Super Bowl hangover? (@weimfw)
Agreed. Christian McCaffrey’s arrival is not their answer to Liquid IV or a hair-of-the-dog cure-al.
What is your go-to comfort food when it’s clearly not your team’s year? My wife makes an excellent sausage chili. (@theBQ11)
The 49ers served cornbread and beef pot pies at halftime to — undoubtedly — spark their second-half comeback over Dallas on Oct. 27. This past Sunday, no pot pie, no victory.