MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 309 main event between Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira.

Charles Oliveira UFC 309 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 34-10 MMA, 22-10 UFC
• Height: 5’10” Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 74″
• Last fight: Decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan (April 13, 2024)
• Camp: Chute Boxe Diego Lima (Brazil)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC lightweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 21 submission wins
+ 16 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing ability
^ Accurate hooks and uppercuts
+ Solid muay Thai arsenal
^ Dangerous knees and elbows
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Strong takedowns from the clinch
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Diverse submission acumen
+/- 2-0 in career rematches

Michael Chandler UFC 309 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 23-8 MMA, 2-3 UFC
• Height: 5’8″ Age: 38 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
• Last fight: Submission loss to Dustin Poirier (Nov. 12, 2022)
• Camp: Sanford MMA (Florida)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ 3x Bellator lightweight champion
+ 4x NCAA Division-I All-American wrestler
+ 11 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved footwork and fundamentals
^ Will shift stances in combination
+ Dangerous right hand
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Explosive level-changing takedowns
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Effective ground strikes and submissions
+/- 3-2 in career rematches
+/- Coming off a 2-year layoff

Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira point of interest: Striking the second time around

The co-main event in Madison Square Garden features a rematch between top-ranked lightweights, Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler.

Apparently sure things are death, taxes and the UFC matchmakers drowning us with rematches since the pandemic.

But in Mick Maynard and Sean Shelby’s defense, the first encounter between Oliveira and Chandler, which went down three years ago back at UFC 262, was the fun, back-and-forth action fight you’d expect from these two.

Chandler, who was incorporating the bodywork I called for the first time around, was able to build off a cross to the body in order to come up with a left hook that hurt Oliveira and sent him into grappling mode. The American was able to hurt Oliveira with another left hook after they got back to their feet, but it was the Brazilian’s left that had the last word in the following frame.

Catching Chandler resetting his head position back on center after another cross to the body, Oliveira was able to capitalize on a perfect interception that brought an end to the bout. Since then, “Do Bronx” has kept somewhat of a tightrope theme going forward regarding the fine line he walks in his fights.

Oliveira will still Thai march forward like a marauding madman, keeping a sort of “touch-n-go” theme, as he seems to have a bit of a hardwiring for catching and pitching punches.

The timing change-ups involved can work well on a plethora of opponents, but tempo and speed changes are a potent two-way street when dealing with an explosive athlete like Chandler.

An inherent pressure fighter who busted onto the UFC stage like a proverbial bull in a China shop, Chandler can seldom be found taking a back step in his contests. Carrying over the athletic ability and explosiveness that he demonstrated as a wrestler on the Mizzou mats, Chandler’s boxing technique made impressive strides back in his initial Bellator tournament run, which in turn helped him earn his first world title.

Since then, Chandler has seemed to settle down at Sanford MMA, where striking coach Henri Hooft has been able to help with the offensive fundamentals.

I’ll be curious to see what Chandler’s approach will be on the feet for this one; and if that plan involves a little more grappling this time around.

Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira breakdown: Winning the wrestling

Considering how close each party came to closing the show on the floor in their last meeting, I will be curious to see if either fighter is confident enough to gamble in the grappling department this time around.

A four-time NCAA All-American standout who comes from a solid program and wrestling class, Chandler demonstrates the ability to dictate wrestling traffic in most of his fights.

Whether Chandler is changing levels for a double or chaining off of a single-leg, the former Mizzou team captain can be difficult to deny when he puts his mind to taking someone down. Chandler’s reactive speed and almost karate-like footwork allow his level changes decent cover in the open, but the 15-year pro seems to get into most of his grappling exchanges against the cage.

However, despite Chandler being the better wrestler on paper, Oliveira was the more active and offensive wrestler of the two.

Shortly after getting outwrestled by Frankie Edgar back at UFC 162, Oliveira worked diligently to improve that portion of his grappling game. Now, it’s not uncommon to see Oliveira outwrestling a decent amount of his contemporaries early and often (especially if he can get to any variation of a bodylock).

If Chandler does try to get offensive with his takedowns like some of us suspected last time out, then do not be surprised to see Oliveira revert to his home of front-choke counters.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1392291220492218372

Oliveira is masterful from most front-headlock variations, displaying the acumen to shift the dynamic of a position as he unleashes interweaving submission attempts as if he’s firing them off from an M-60 machine gun.

Luckily for Chandler, he’s got some underrated grappling skills and experience in his back pocket.

Linking up with high-level camps and catch wrestling coaches like Neil Melanson early on in his career, we have seen the former Mizzou Tiger show solid glimpses of a fine-tuned transitional grappler during parts of his evolution. From submission defense to the small details of fighting inside of someone’s guard, Chandler shows all the fundamentals from hand-fighting to head position, which, of course, opens up the opportunity for him to land his ferocious ground and pound.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1392276328397762560

Chandler is also not afraid to take backs that become available, but runs the risk of falling into the honeytrap of a high-paced fight should he allow things to get too wild.

Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira odds

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the former UFC lightweight champion, listing Oliveira -265 and Chandler +200 via FanDuel.

Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira prediction, pick

Despite this fight opening as a pick’em the first time around, I can understand why the odds are tilted in Oliveira’s favor.

Aside from being the more active fighter who won the first time around, it’s hard to be confident in Chandler given the intangibles of his current state.

From the letdown of spending the better part of the last two years waiting for Conor McGregor to the fact that he’s self-admittedly struggled to get back down to 155 pounds for this fight, I find myself flipping from the stance I had last time around.

Although I still believe that Chandler quietly has the tools to be one of the hardest matchups for Oliveira in this weight class, his hardwiring to fight at unsustainable breakneck paces turns things into a gambit that’s hard to get behind.

Not only does Chandler’s staying power get more suspect by the day, but I believe there have been some skills regressions in key areas that have only contributed to his problems.

Chandler’s striking defense, for example, took a serious hit after parting ways with then-boxing coach Gil Martinez before heading into his first career rematch with Eddie Alvarez.

A boxing coach whom I also trained under, Martinez was good about instilling in his fighters to always move their head after throwing punches (e.g. rolling heads off of crosses, etc.).

And sure enough, in Chandler’s rematch with Alvarez, we got some of our first glimpses of the natural disregard for defense that Chandler can have without the proper tools at his disposal.

Another troubling trend is that Chandler, who has some really good ground striking and underrated submission skills, has steadily gotten away from his grappling since parting ways with his longtime catch wrestling coach Neil Melanson prior to his UFC run. And with those two trends being huge for matchups like these, I find myself picking Oliveira this time around.

It’s a scary prediction to land on given that rematches seldom go the same way in MMA, but I’ll officially pick “Slim Charles” to keep his perfect rematch record alive by securing a club-and-sub in Round 2.

Prediction: Oliviera inside the distance

Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira start time, where to watch

As the co-main event, Chandler and Oliveira are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight airs live on pay-per-view via ESPN+.