MANILA, Philippines – Signal No. 5 was raised for the province of Catanduanes in the Bicol region as Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi) further intensified early Saturday afternoon, November 16.

A “potentially catastrophic and life-threatening situation looms” for the northeastern part of Bicol, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned the public in a bulletin released past 2 pm on Saturday.

As of 1 pm, Pepito was located 200 kilometers east of Juban, Sorsogon, or 180 kilometers east southeast of Virac, Catanduanes. It is still moving west northwest but slightly slowed down from 25 kilometers per hour to 20 km/h.

The super typhoon now has maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h from the previous 185 km/h, while its gustiness is now up to 240 km/h from 230 km/h.

The following areas are under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 2 pm on Saturday:

Signal No. 5

Typhoon-force winds (185 km/h), extreme threat to life and property

• Catanduanes

Signal No. 4

Typhoon-force winds (118 to 184 km/h), significant to severe threat to life and property

• northeastern part of Camarines Sur (Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion, Siruma, Tinambac, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Tigaon, Sagñay)
• northeastern part of Albay (Tabaco City, Tiwi, Malinao, Malilipot, Bacacay, Rapu-Rapu)

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• Polillo Islands
• southeastern part of mainland Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Buenavista)
• Camarines Norte
• rest of Camarines Sur
• rest of Albay
• northern part of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz, Sorsogon City, Gubat, Barcelona, Castilla, Casiguran, Pilar, Donsol)
• eastern and central parts of Northern Samar (Palapag, Laoang, Mapanas, Gamay, Lapinig, Catubig, Pambujan, Las Navas, Biri, Bobon, Catarman, Mondragon, San Roque, Silvino Lobos, Lope de Vega, San Jose)
• northern part of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Arteche, Oras, Jipapad)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• southern part of Isabela (Dinapigue, Cordon, Ramon, Alicia, Cauayan City, Angadanan, Santiago City, San Isidro, Echague, Jones, San Agustin, San Guillermo, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Palanan)
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• eastern part of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Umingan, Natividad, San Quintin, Tayug, Santa Maria, Rosales, Balungao, San Manuel, Villasis, Malasiqui, Bautista, Mapandan, Binalonan, Alcala, Asingan, Santo Tomas, Urdaneta City, Laoac, Manaoag, Bayambang, Santa Barbara)
• Aurora
• Nueva Ecija
• Bulacan
• Tarlac
• Pampanga
• southern part of Zambales (Botolan, Cabangan, San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Antonio, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City)
• Bataan
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• rest of Quezon
• Laguna
• Cavite
• Marinduque
• Burias Island
• Ticao Island
• central part of Eastern Samar (Dolores, Maslog, Can-avid, Taft, Sulat, San Julian, Borongan City)
• northern part of Samar (Matuguinao, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Tarangnan, Motiong, Gandara, Jiabong, Catbalogan City, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Pagsanghan)
• rest of Northern Samar

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• mainland Cagayan
• rest of Isabela
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• rest of Pangasinan
• rest of Zambales
• Batangas
• northern part of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Santa Cruz, Mamburao, Abra de Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Islands
• northern part of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Naujan, Baco, Victoria, Socorro, Pinamalayan, Bansud, Gloria, Pola, Calapan City, Bongabong, Roxas, Mansalay)
• Romblon
• rest of Masbate
• rest of Eastern Samar
• rest of Samar
• Biliran
• northern and central parts of Leyte (Tunga, Pastrana, San Miguel, Matag-ob, Tolosa, Palo, Calubian, Leyte, Mayorga, Julita, Carigara, Babatngon, Dagami, Jaro, San Isidro, Santa Fe, Albuera, Villaba, La Paz, Palompon, MacArthur, Tabontabon, Tanauan, Merida, Ormoc City, Isabel, Dulag, Capoocan, Alangalang, Burauen, Tabango, Tacloban City, Kananga, Barugo, Abuyog, Javier, Baybay City, Mahaplag)
• northeastern part of Southern Leyte (Silago)
• northernmost part of Cebu (Daanbantayan, Medellin) including Bantayan Islands
• northernmost part of Iloilo (Carles)
• northern part of Dinagat Islands (Loreto, Tubajon)

Aside from violent winds, Pepito is bringing moderate to torrential rain. PAGASA again advised the following areas to expect floods and landslides due to rain from the super typhoon:

Saturday afternoon, November 16, to Sunday afternoon, November 17

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 millimeters): Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Albay, Quezon, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Sorsogon, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, Masbate

Sunday afternoon, November 17, to Monday afternoon, November 18

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Quezon, Aurora, Rizal, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Benguet, Pangasinan
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): La Union, Tarlac, Bulacan, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Camarines Norte
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Marinduque, Camarines Sur, Batangas, Cagayan, Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, Abra, Ilocos Sur

In addition, there is a high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges “with peak heights exceeding 3 meters” in the Ilocos Region (western coast), Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Marinduque, Bicol, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Biliran within 48 hours.

PAGASA expects Pepito to move generally west northwest within the next three days before turning generally west to west southwest from Monday afternoon, November 18, to early Thursday morning, November 21.

It is still “more likely” to make landfall in Catanduanes on Saturday evening or early Sunday morning, November 17. But the weather bureau is not ruling out landfall in Camarines Sur or Albay during the same period if Pepito “moves slightly south” of its current forecast track, or landfall in Quezon or Aurora on Sunday afternoon or evening if Pepito “moves slightly north.”

“Regardless of the landfall point,” Pepito is projected to pass over or near Bicol, Central Luzon, Quezon, and southern portions of the Ilocos Region and Cordillera Administrative Region during the weekend, before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday evening or Monday morning.

All areas under rainfall, wind, and storm surge warnings must be prepared for Pepito, not just the possible landfall sites.

In terms of strength, PAGASA said Pepito continues to approach its peak intensity. The weather bureau also reiterated: “With radar imagery showing signs of eyewall replacement, the intensity of Pepito may begin to maintain or slightly decrease in the…coming hours. However, if the eyewall replacement finishes prior to its passage over Catanduanes, the super typhoon will resume intensifying.”

Eyewall replacement occurs “when a second concentric eyewall forms around the original and eventually overtakes it,” according to the World Meteorological Organization.

PAGASA added that Pepito is likely to make landfall in Catanduanes as a super typhoon “at or near peak intensity,” and possibly as a super typhoon or typhoon in the Quezon-Aurora area.

There will be “significant weakening” when Pepito crosses mainland Luzon on Sunday. However, it is still likely to remain a typhoon until it reaches the West Philippine Sea, which means it will still be a powerful tropical cyclone.

Pepito might leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Monday.

Meanwhile, PAGASA maintained the following outlook for sea conditions in the next 24 hours:

Up to very rough, high, or very high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 14 meters high
• Northern seaboard of Camarines Sur – waves up to 12 meters high
• Northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; seaboard of Camarines Norte – waves up to 9 meters high
• Eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar – waves up to 7 meters high
• Remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur – waves up to 5.5 meters high
• Northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; seaboards of Aurora; remaining seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar; seaboards of Burias Island and Ticao Island – waves up to 4.5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboards of Dinagat Islands and northern Quezon – waves up to 4 meters high
• Seaboards of Isabela and Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands; remaining seaboards of Polillo Islands and Quezon, Bicol, and Eastern Visayas – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboards of Cagayan and Babuyan Islands; seaboard of Surigao del Sur; seaboards of Marinduque, Romblon, and northern Cebu – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboards of Batanes and Davao Oriental – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Seaboards of Oriental Mindoro, Aklan, Capiz, Davao del Sur, and Ilocos Region – waves up to 2 meters high

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Pepito is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2024. It is also the fourth tropical cyclone for November alone, after Marce (Yinxing), Nika (Toraji), and Ofel (Usagi).

Counting from October 21 to present — starting with Kristine (Trami) and Leon (Kong-rey) — Pepito is already the country’s sixth tropical cyclone in less than a month. – Rappler.com