How Raptors’ Davion Mitchell has been better than expected

To the Harkonnens, the Fremen were vermin. Desert rats, they called them. Their culture wasn’t worth understanding, their numbers not even worth counting. They were tolerated when they weren’t causing trouble and exterminated when they were. But to Paul Atreides, the Fremen were the greatest fighters the universe could offer. He didn’t just count them and understand them; he became one of them. Frank Herbert, author of Dune, truly understood the proverb ‘one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.’

So too does Masai Ujiri and the Toronto Raptors.

The Sacramento Kings this past summer were in a financial crunch. They didn’t want to pay Sasha Vezenkov or Davion Mitchell, so they decided to pay the Toronto Raptors a (very) valuable second-round pick in order to take on their contracts. (And they acquired Jalen McDaniels, but that’s another story.) Vezenkov decided to forgo his salary in order to return to Europe. But Mitchell stayed.

Mitchell saw his minutes and opportunities dwindle every year in Sacramento. Of course De’Aaron Fox was ahead of him on the depth chart, but Malik Monk had solidified the backup guard spot behind him. The Kings weren’t prioritizing Mitchell in their future.

The Raptors, on the other hand, desperately needed a backup guard. Entering the season, Immanuel Quickley was still learning how to run his own team. Jamal Shead was drafted in the second round and perhaps not ready to run an NBA offence. And there were no other point guards on the roster. A barren wasteland. On the last year of his rookie contract and getting paid almost $6.5 M, the situation in Toronto seemed ideal for him to rehabilitate his value and figure out his next step.

Then Quickley bruised his pelvis, and sprained his elbow, and the Raptors haven’t just needed Mitchell to fill a role. They’ve needed him to be something he hasn’t been since his two years at Baylor. He’s playing more minutes than he ever has in the league, and in just 12 games he’s already started as many games as he did in his sophomore year, and more than last season. His touches have skyrocketed from 28.4 per game last year to 64.8 this season. They never cracked 50 per game, even in his rookie year.

As a Raptor, he’s not trying to do too much — he’s averaging fewer touches than points guards like Tyus Jones or Jalen Suggs — and he’s taking fewer than eight shots per game. There have been some issues, of course. He’s shooting 26.7 percent from deep (more on that in a moment), and his turnovers have jumped to 2.3 per game, as he’s thrown plenty of thoughtless passes to the other team at times. He’s been overmatched on the offensive end and often not able to create advantages from a standstill — more or less, the most important job of point guards in the modern NBA. He’s not even shooting enough out of isolation or pick and roll to register in NBA dot com’s tracking database. As a result, he’s in the bottom 20 in BPM in the NBA to this point in the season. This role is not what the team added him to fill.

But there has been plenty of positives. Mitchell is throwing plenty of assists, as he’s up to 6.2 per game, good for top 25 in the league. Sure, much of that belongs to Toronto’s assist farm. But he’s throwing darts to the corners, some nifty passes to his bigs, and is finding clean looks on the move to teammates. The assist-to-turnover ratio has taken a hit from last season, but the fact that he’s taking more risks is a good thing for Toronto’s offence. He’s not trying to do too much, but he’s not doing nothing, either.

And because Mitchell has been playing alongside so few creators, much of what he does best has been minimized. He shot 36.1 percent from deep last year largely on the back of attempting almost a third of his triple attempts from the corner and shooting 44.7 percent on them. This year he’s attempted only six triples from the corner total, a far lower share. Above the break, he’s actually shooting better as a Raptor than he did last year as a King — 33.3 percent this season compared to 32.4 percent last season. The difference is just that he’s not shooting anything else this time around.

When Quickley is back and running sets, and Scottie Barnes especially, then Mitchell will be able to do less, stand in the corner, and launch those shorter, in-rhythm triples that he finds so much more comfortable. Shooting 33.3 percent above the break is much more manageable when you’re stretching the floor from the corners, too.

And Mitchell has been great attacking the rim — when he gets a chance. He’s shooting 54.8 percent on drives. He’s above average both from the short midrange and at the rim, but when he’s spending more time attacking closeouts, his finishing should creep upwards. (He was over the 90th percentile last season at the rim.)

The defence has been a surefire hit. Sure, not enough to sustain a good or even passable defence for the team as a whole. But he’s done a great job taking opposing lead guards out of the picture, and his aggression jumping the dribble has done a terrific job jumpstarting Toronto’s transition offence. He’s maybe been the only player capable of providing aggression at the point of attack without falling out of position and opening up weaknesses elsewhere. Because he solidifies the defence, and helps force misses and turnovers, he is in the 95th percentile for transition points added per 100 possessions.

That will all matter much more when he returns to the role Toronto wanted him for. He’s overmatched for now, even though he’s holding his own on a team where practically everything is leaking water. Toronto desperately needs its best players to return. For their development, as well as the development of everyone on the roster. Once that happens, Mitchell will offer a great boost on both ends when he goes back to his bench role. Until then, he’ll just keep holding the fort.

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