The stock market's Trump honeymoon is turning sour
Brandon Bell/Getty Images; iStock; Rebecca Zisser/BI
- More than half of the stock market's post-Trump-election rally has been erased.
- The turning point came Thursday, when Fed Chair Powell said the central bank will take its time cutting rates.
- That, plus a streak of strong economic data, has investors questioning whether a December cut is necessary.
And just like that, half of the stock market's euphoric post-Trump-election gain is gone.
Major US indexes sold off sharply on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way, as investors came to terms with the fact that they may not get a December rate cut as previously expected.
The turning point came on Thursday, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he and the central bank are in no hurry to cut rates, given the positive signals being sent by the economy.
Stocks turned lower in afternoon trading, and that pressure continued through Friday. The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.6%, and has now given back more than half of its torrid 4% post-election gain. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.7% at intraday lows.
The S&P 500 fell 2.2% this week, while the Dow Jones industrial average lost 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 3.2%.
The losses have come as the odds for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December have fallen. Investors are now pricing in a 58% probability of one at the next meeting, down from around 80% before Powell's address, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The comments from the central-bank head come amid a promising streak of US economic data. On Friday, retail-sales data showed signs of strength, and on Thursday, jobless-claims figures came in surprisingly light.
Stock investors have been grappling with what Trump will ultimately mean for the market now that the dust is settling on a buy-everything rush. Concerns have been raised around whether Trump's protectionist trade policies will drive inflation higher, possibly necessitating eventual rate hikes.
Until now, investors had seemed content to focus on Trump plan to cut taxes and deregulate. But it now seems that Jerome Powell has given them something else to think — and worry — about.
Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Friday:
- S&P 500: 5,870.62, down 1.3%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 43,444.99, down 0.7% (306 points)
- Nasdaq composite: 18,680.12, down 2.2%
Here's what else is going on:
- 5 charts that show Trump's immense post-election market impact, from BofA.
- Health stocks slid after Trump appoints vaccine-skeptic RFK Jr.
- UBS says Trump's plan to build homes on federal land could push housing prices higher.
- The oil market faces a deep surplus next year amid weak Chinese and demand record US production, IEA says.
In commodities, bonds, and crypto:
- West Texas Intermediate crude slid 2.5% to $67.01 a barrel
- Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 2% to $71.11 a barrel.
- Gold slid 0.2% to $2,567.60 an ounce.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose less than one basis point to 4.44%.
- Bitcoin rose 3.5% to $91,271.20.