11/15/2024: Dry & Blustery at Times into the Weekend
The Latest Storm Tracker Forecast from Meteorologists Matt Mackie and Kevin Appleby:
Not as cool for Friday and into the weekend with increasing sunshine and winds. Dry conditions will persist for much of this forecast, but signs are pointing towards the chance for widespread precipitation for the second half of the next week.
With increasing winds, dry conditions, low levels of relative humidity, and plenty of natural dry fuels available, fire weather concerns are increasing locally, particularly for Saturday. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for much of eastern NY Saturday for these concerns. Meanwhile, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for our Western New England Counties for Friday for these same reasons.
Clouds are around for Friday morning, but we expect increasing sun for the afternoon. Aided by the warmer start to the day, temperatures have a better chance of reaching 50 degrees this afternoon.
Skies will turn partly to mostly clear overnight, allowing temperatures to fall back into the 20s by Saturday morning.
Saturday will be windy at times under a great deal of sunshine as high temperatures spike into the low to mid 50s in most areas. Again, the fire danger is especially high for the first half of the weekend with the breezy & dry conditions.
While winds don't exactly go calm for Sunday, they will be much less of a concern comparatively speaking. With a great deal of sunshine and highs in the low to mid 50s once again out there, it's our pick of the weekend. Neither weekend day, however, is bad by any stretch! More clouds will filter in late Sunday and stick around for Monday. Guidance is outputting a few spotty rain showers, particularly overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. So, while it's possible you may head out the door for work Monday morning with some raindrops on your car, rainfall amounts will be very low and essentially meaningless for our drought situation. Additionally, the showers will be hit-or-miss, and a good number of us won't see a drop Sunday night.
Tuesday and Wednesday look quiet with slightly above-average temperatures and a good deal of sun. During those quiet weather days locally, a stronger storm system will be marching into the Central United States. There are a lot of forecasting variables, including the possibility of some tropical moisture being pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico. In short terms, we could have widespread rainfall into Thursday... but at this range (6-8 days from now), it is far from a sure thing.
Call us **cautiously** optimistic about the prospects of meaningful rain Thursday. In the best case scenario, this rain wouldn't put an end to the drought, but it would provide at least some temporary relief from fire weather concerns and boost water levels in lakes and reservoirs. We will continue to watch these systems closely into next week, with the hope that Mother Nature threads some needles for us.