Eternal faith in Mike Tomlin, a Texans-Cowboys shame fest and the best bets of Week 11

After a series of Week 10 losses, our resident NFL handicapper, the Rhode Island Scumbag, tilted a bit. After a few modest weeks, he fired out four plays for five units worth of bets — his biggest wager since an 0 for 3, six-unit loss back in Week 1.

The gamble paid off, but just barely. A two-win week wound up profitable thanks to his faith in the Los Angeles Chargers, who briefly trailed but still wound up covering a touchdown-plus spread at home against the Tennessee Titans. That weighted bet got him back to profitable on the season and restored my hope that this year could be different than the winter Scumbag Slides ™ that preceded it.

While the Scumbag was sweating out a .500 week, I got back on track with a pair of winners thanks to the New Orleans Saints’ post-coach firing bump and the general strategy of backing Mike Tomlin in the face of (non-playoff) adversity. Week 11 poses more opportunities to inflate that bankroll but a ton of toss-up games and not-quite-trustable home teams.

Where did we land? The Rhode Island Scumbag’s plays are below; all his analysis is in blockquotes. My non-Scumbag picks follow.

Laying two units on the Chargers provided me with a profit last week, albeit a small one. The New York Giants (predictably) demonstrated to the world why one should NEVER put their faith in Daniel Jones and the Detroit Lions demonstrated how good Vegas is at handicapping.

Christian is starting to put some distance between us again, and I may have to wager more aggressively if this trend continues. For now, I’m still trying to practice patience and restraint. This may have to change depending on Week 11.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (two units)

Pittsburgh narrowly escaped with the win against Washington as as underdog. They should be able to do so again when Baltimore heads west.

The Ravens have been one of the league’s worst against the pass this season. Now they face the daunting task of keeping the always unpredictable (and entertaining) George “Neo” Pickens in check.

The Mike Tomlin effect is also a huge factor in my confidence in the Steelers. He’s great at home, in division games and as an underdog.

We have a clean sweep of situations going on here. Baltimore put up points once again last week, but got absolutely torched by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase in the process (albeit in a one point victory). Pittsburgh has a much better defense and should keep up with Baltimore on the scoreboard. I’m going to back my faith in Tomlin and the Steelers taking care of business with a two unit wager on this one.

Indianapolis Colts (+4) at New York Jets (one unit)

The Jets are in a death spiral right now. They looked completely broken last week against the Arizona Cardinals. Now the host the slightly less dysfunctional Indianapolis Colts.

Both teams have struggling defenses lately, especially against the run. I think the X-factor is the re-insertion of Anthony Richardson. The Jets had a hard time keeping tabs on Kyler Murray and James Connor last week, allowing for 3 rushing touchdowns. Now they face the two headed monster of Richardson and a healthy Jonathan Taylor.

If Indianapolis can avoid turnovers, they should be able to come out on top or, at the very least, cover for one unit.

Houston Texans (-7) at Dallas Cowboys (one unit)

Speaking of teams in a death spiral, here come the Cowboys. Jerry Jones is hell bent on taking the “Most Dysfunctional Franchise” title from Woody Johnson’s Jets this season.

Their offense was a mess before they lost Dak Prescott for the year. The defense has heavily regressed since Dan Quinn left for Washington. Players are sniping at coaches in the media. Even the hot Texas sun itself has turned against America’s Team with a little help from Jones’s disdain for curtains.

All of these factors contribute to what should be a get right game for the Texans after their gut wrenching loss to the seemingly invincible Detroit Lions. Nico Collins should be back in the lineup, providing C.J. Stroud a true WR1 again who can track the ball even if Stroud’s offensive line forces him to chuck up contested prayers from the pocket.

Joe Mixon shouldn’t be met with much resistance this week as well. I hesitate to lean into a two unit bet thanks to Houston’s Jekyll and Hyde performance last week, but one unit will suffice.

Last week: 2-2, +1 unit
Season to date: 17-15-1 (.530), +1 unit

My non-Scumbag picks: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 over the Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans -7 over the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers -5.5 over the Chicago Bears and Colts-Jets UNDER 45 points (one unit each)

Geno Smith is 0-4 against the Niners as a starting quarterback. He’s got a 2-4 touchdown:interception ratio in that span and his closest loss came by 12 points. Seattle is coming off a bye and nearing a crisis point at 4-5, but the 5-4 49ers are staring up at the Cardinals in the NFC West pecking order and similarly in need of balance-restoring wins.

The Cowboys have played four home games and lost by at least four touchdowns in three of them. Dak Prescott was the quarterback for the majority of those games, now it’s Cooper Rush.

Things are not getting better and their only hope may be for sun poisoning to get the Texans’ offensive line to play like doofuses a second straight week. I kinda hate taking Houston on the road given its ability to implode this season, but if anyone provides a get-right game this season it’s Dallas.

I don’t like the idea of laying points on the road in general, let alone doing it twice (and once in a divisional rivalry), but Green Bay has won 10 straight against the Bears. Chicago’s smallest margin of defeat in that span is seven points.

The Bears are spiraling and the Packers are coming off a bye week and a disheartening loss that preceded it. I just don’t think this version of the Bears is gonna put in the extra effort for a rival at home as long as Matt Eberflus is there.

Then there’s Colts-Jets, which feels like either a rock fight or a game in which the Jets’ defense comes alive to stifle a returning Anthony Richardson. New York badly needs a get-right game and now faces the league’s least accurate quarterback (44 percent completion rate!). Either way, it bodes well for the under.

Last week: 2-0, +2 units
Season to date: 16-11 (.593), +7 units