House Republicans win the majority. Now they look to the margin.
House Republicans tapped their leadership team for the next Congress on Wednesday and formally notched their majority when the Associated Press called Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s (R-Ariz.) reelection. But the size of that razor-thin majority remains in flux — even before factoring in the departures of three GOP members nominated for roles in the Trump administration.
Here’s the latest on where things stand.
California’s 45th: Several more favorable batches of ballots for Democrats have put Derek Tran within 349 votes of overtaking Rep. Michelle Steel (R) for this hotly contested seat. This one looks poised to go down to the wire, but things have been lining up well for Tran in recent days to possibly flip this seat.
Alaska at-large: GOP challenger Nick Begich leads incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D) by more than 9,300 votes in this contest, though he is still below the majority threshold needed to avoid triggering the state’s ranked-choice voting procedures. That process wouldn’t take place until Nov. 20, so we may wait a while before a final call in the Last Frontier.
California’s 13th: An estimated one-quarter of ballots are left to be counted more than a week after Election Day in this district, but incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R) continues to hold his own against Democrat Adam Gray in what had been eyed as a prime pickup shot for Democrats. Duarte’s lead stands at more than 3,700 votes — and ballot drops have not broken against him so far.
California’s 21st and 9th: Incumbent Democratic Reps. Jim Costa and Josh Harder continue to grow their leads in their reelection bids. Costa now leads by more than three percentage points — some 5,100 plus votes — while Harder’s advantage is more than three and a half percentage points — or nearly 6,900 votes.
Iowa’s 1st: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) leads by more than 700 votes in this razor thin contest but her opponent, Democrat Christina Bohannan, said she’d seek a recount on Thursday morning. “We have full trust in this process and will accept the results regardless of the outcome,” her campaign manager, Jindalae Suh, said in a statement.
AP calls on Wednesday: Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif); Rep.-elect Dave Min (D-Calif.); Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.)
Pennsylvania Senate: The contest between Sen. Bob Casey (D) and Sen.-elect David McCormick (R) is headed to an automatic statewide recount due to the tight margin. McCormick leads by more than 26,000 votes statewide, though, so Casey faces long odds to reverse the lead. Counties must begin their recounts by Nov. 20 and complete them by Nov. 26, according to Pennsylvania Secretary of State.