NFL straight-up picks, Week 11: Another Chiefs-Bills classic incoming?

Another chalky week kept our panel of experts all batting .600 or better when it comes to picking NFL winners this season. Week 11, however, poses a few unique challenges.

An NFC East showdown between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles will tell us whether Philly’s five-game win streak is real or just vaporware. The Buffalo Bills seek their first victory over an AFC team with a winning record when the Kansas City Chiefs come to town. The Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints will perform 3.5 hours of psychological torture for whatever remaining fans are still paying attention.

With that in mind, let’s look at Week 11’s slate and pick some winners.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Hall, who is out this week). Here are our Week 11 picks:

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s break down three games based on what I do and don’t like.

Easiest game to pick: Detroit Lions (-13) over the Jacksonville Jaguars

Why I like this pick:

Come on.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Lions could be headed for a letdown after last week’s absurd rally. Trevor Lawrence is out, but at least Mac Jones gets a full week of prep this time around (it will not matter). Jared Goff probably won’t self destruct again, and even if he does the Detroit ground attack gets to tee off on what’s been a just-OK rush defense.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 8-2 (.800)

Hardest favorite to back: Buffalo Bills (-1) over the Kansas City Chiefs

Why I like this pick:

The Chiefs have lost each of their last three regular season matchups against the Bills. Kansas City has given off major “just waiting to get stung” vibes, most recently trailing for nearly 75 percent of a game against Bo Nix before being saved by a blocked field goal at the buzzer. Josh Allen remains part of the MVP race and can boost his breakthrough against a defense that has stood up when needed, but still only ranks 13th in expected points added (EPA) per opponent dropback.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Bills are 0-2 against Patrick Mahomes all-time at home, including last year’s three-point postseason loss. Kansas City’s sloppiness failed to lead to defeat against the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons or San Francisco 49ers, each of which are solid teams led by top 10 quarterbacks.

The Bills best win this season came over… the Arizona Cardinals? The Miami Dolphins? Either way, that resume is lacking. Betting against Mahomes in general is fairly poor practice.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 5-5 (.500)

Upset pick of the week: Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) over the Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert is quietly making the leap from good to great under Jim Harbaugh and now gets the NFL’s 28th-ranked defense. Los Angeles’s defense has risen to the challenge under a new coaching staff and held eight of its nine opponents to 17 points or fewer. The Chargers’ biggest offensive flaw is an offensive line that’s allowing pressure on nearly 40 percent of Herbert’s dropbacks, but Cincinnati lacks the personnel to exploit that.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 3-7 (.300)