MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon Ofel (Usagi) is heading for Cagayan province’s Babuyan Islands, where it could make its second landfall on Thursday evening, November 14. It may also just pass close to the area, but even in this scenario, would still pose a threat.

As of 4 pm on Thursday, Ofel was in the vicinity of Gonzaga, Cagayan, still moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).

The typhoon further weakened over mainland Cagayan, with its maximum sustained winds down to 165 km/h from 175 km/h. But its gustiness increased to 275 km/h from 240 km/h.

At its peak, Ofel was a super typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h, reaching this category early Thursday morning. But hours later, it was downgraded to a typhoon, before it made its first landfall in Baggao, Cagayan, at 1:30 pm.

Though Ofel is gradually weakening, wind and rainfall warnings are still in effect and should not be taken lightly.

Below are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 pm on Thursday.

Signal No. 4

Typhoon-force winds (118 to 184 km/h), significant to severe threat to life and property

• Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan (Santa Teresita, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Lal-lo, Allacapan, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Gonzaga, Santa Ana, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira)

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• Batanes
• rest of Cagayan
• northern part of Isabela (San Pablo, Tumauini, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Maconacon, Delfin Albano)
• northern part of Apayao (Flora, Santa Marcela, Luna, Pudtol, Calanasan, Kabugao)
• northern part of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Dumalneg)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• western and eastern parts of Isabela (Quezon, Quirino, Mallig, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Cauayan City, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, Reina Mercedes, Luna, Roxas, San Mariano, Palanan, Ilagan City, Divilacan, Dinapigue)
• rest of Apayao
• Kalinga
• northeastern part of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagayan, San Juan, Lagangilang, Licuan-Baay, Daguioman)
• eastern part of Mountain Province (Paracelis)
• rest of Ilocos Norte

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of Isabela
• Quirino
• northern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Ambaguio, Solano, Bayombong, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi, Villaverde, Dupax del Norte, Bambang)
• rest of Mountain Province
• rest of Ifugao
• rest of Abra
• northern part of Benguet (Mankayan, Kabayan, Kibungan, Bakun, Buguias)
• Ilocos Sur
• northern part of La Union (Luna, Sudipen, Bangar, Santol, Balaoan)
• northern part of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dilasag, Dipaculao)

Meanwhile, PAGASA released an updated rainfall advisory, also at 5 pm on Thursday. Cagayan is the only province left seeing intense to torrential rain, but 11 others still have moderate to intense rain from Ofel.

Thursday afternoon, November 14, to Friday afternoon, November 15

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 millimeters): Cagayan
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Apayao
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora

Friday afternoon, November 15, to Saturday afternoon, November 16

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands

In the next 48 hours, there is still a high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges “with peak heights exceeding 3 meters” in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora.

Conditions in seaboards affected by the typhoon will remain dangerous in the next 24 hours as well.

Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands – waves up to 12 meters high
• Seaboards of Isabela and Batanes – waves up to 8 meters high
• Northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 6 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboard of northern Aurora – waves up to 4 meters high
• Remaining seaboards of Aurora and Ilocos Norte; seaboard of northern mainland Quezon; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboards of Camarines Norte and Ilocos Sur; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high

ALSO ON RAPPLER

• As Duterte sparks fireworks in the House, a mother weeps
• Sulu’s exit shakes up Bangsamoro: 5 scenarios for the 2025 polls
• LOOK: First Filipino-made crown for Miss Universe champions South Sea pearl

Ofel is the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the third for November, after Marce (Yinxing) and Nika (Toraji), which both peaked as typhoons and pummeled Northern Luzon.

After possibly hitting Babuyan Islands, Ofel may turn north on Friday, November 15, over the sea west of Batanes, then northeast over the sea east of Taiwan during the weekend. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Ofel is likely to weaken further “due to frictional effects of land, as well as the increasingly unfavorable environment over the Luzon Strait and the sea east of Taiwan,” PAGASA said. It may just be a remnant low by Monday, November 18.

Aside from Ofel, PAGASA continues to monitor Tropical Storm Man-yi, which is seen to enter PAR on Thursday evening.

– Rappler.com