Who will be the next Penguins player to get traded?
Not only that, what can we expect in return for them?
As soon as the direction of this year’s Pittsburgh Penguins team became clear, it was easy to point out which players might be at the top of the trade list and who might be the most likely to go.
Center Lars Eller had to be at the very top of that list, and on Tuesday night he ended up getting shipped back to the Washington Capitals for a 2025 fifth-round pick and a 2027 third-round pick. The only thing surprising about that transaction is how early in the season it happened. I figured it would be closer to the trade deadline itself, but that it was an inevitable move.
Now that Eller is gone, and now that the Penguins really seem to be steamrolling toward a third consecutive non-playoff season, the focus can shift to which player will be the next to be on the move and what sort of return they can expect in return.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman dug into some of those questions in his most recent 32 Thoughts column and had some interesting (and expected) pieces of information.
First, the expected — Defenseman Marcus Pettersson and forward Drew O’Connor are almost certain to be among the next players to go given their status as pending unrestricted free agents.
As they should be.
Both players have had their moments in Pittsburgh, but neither player is going to move the needle either way in terms of making the team better now or being a part of a rebuild and the next good Penguins team. Their biggest value to the Penguins right now is as trade chips, and they should be doing everything they can to boost their value as much as possible in the coming weeks and months.
Pettersson is the higher regarded player and plays a more premium position, but as Friedman points out O’Connor’s cheap contract and ability to play all over the lineup will likely make him an attractive player for a contender.
Friedman also notes that he heard from people around the NHL that the Penguins’ preference in trades is young NHL players, already drafted prospects, and then draft picks in that order.
It’s tough to get young NHL Players and already drafted prospects for second-tier rentals like Eller, O’Connor and Pettersson. Which is why Eller only brought back a couple of mid-round picks, and why O’Connor and Pettersson are likely to do the same.
But the Penguins’ preference being young NHL players and already drafted prospects kind of tracks with what we have already seen from Kyle Dubas in Pittsburgh. The Jake Guentzel trade, his biggest selling trade to date, was largely built around an NHL player (Bunting) and already drafted prospects.
They also made the trade to get Rutger McGroarty from the Winnipeg Jets.
Draft picks certainly have their value, but even then you are probably only talking about a 50 percent chance for a second-round pick to even make it to the NHL for even a single game, let alone becoming a regular contributor. With young players and already drafted prospects you at least have a sense for what they are and what they can be against professional competition (whether it be in the NHL or AHL).
It is possible that the might be able to snag a prospect for a player with term (Michael Bunting? Alex Nedeljkovic? A bigger name on the roster?), but trades similar to Eller (though perhaps with a more valuable return) should probably be closer to the expectation for the pending free agents.
The most interesting thought might have been regarding defenseman Erik Karlsson.
Erik Karlsson? Again, he’s got control. So it’s going to be up to him. Look at his contract structure, though. The salary drops from $11M now to $9M (2025-26), then $7.5M (2026-27), and San Jose has a bit of retention. A big chunk of next year’s money is a $5M signing bonus. He was traded from the Sharks to Pittsburgh on August 6, 2023, so, if a similar blueprint is followed, that’s even less of a financial commitment for an acquiring team.
Karlsson is taking a lot of heat locally and internationally — longtime Swedish league and National Team GM Johan Garpenlov told Radio Sporten the defenceman’s play is too much of a risk for the 4 Nations Tournament — but, as the salary drops, it’s not wrong to believe there would be interest. He’s still very, very talented.
Karlsson’s year-plus tenure with the Penguins have been a little .... tumultuous? Disappointing? Not what anybody expected?
I think it was fair to look at his 2023-24 performance and say that it was probably objectively fine, maybe even pretty good, but just not quite matching the hype and expectation given the way he played in San Jose the year before (and for most of his career prior to that). He had some flaws defensively, but he made up for it with his offense, even if it did not result in 100 points and a Norris Trophy.
Through the first month this season he has not really been that. He has had some good individual games, but the big picture outlook has been more bad than good (even if the underlying on-ice numbers are still mostly okay), especially as it relates to some of his defensive play and decision-making with the puck.
Given his up-and-down play, his age, and his contract it is widely assumed that his contract might be close to unmovable.
Friedman clearly does not think so, and lays out a pretty compelling financial argument as to why.
The only problem in the short-term is that seems like a complicated trade to make in-season. It seems like more of an offseason move. I also do not think either the team or player would be opposed to it. The Penguins took a big swing with Karlsson to try and capitalize on the remainder of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang’s careers, and it did not work. They have no loyalty to Karlsson because his best hockey came for different teams. He is not a legacy player here. He would probably welcome a change just because he still almost certainly wants his chance at a Stanley Cup and he is probably smart enough to know it is not going to happen here.
If you can pull off such a trade, that might be the type of deal where you can get a prospect or two back in return if you can make the money work for somebody else.
Bottom line is every loss this season brings the Penguins closer and closer to trading off more players as part of some sort of rebuild. Eller simply got the ball rolling. It is just a matter of which player is next and what sort of return they can get.