MANILA, Philippines – Super Typhoon Ofel (Usagi) maintained its strength as it continued to “endanger the Cagayan Valley region” late Thursday morning, November 14, the weather bureau said.

As of 10 am on Thursday, Ofel was already over the coastal waters of Divilacan, Isabela, moving west northwest at the same speed of 15 km/h.

It may head northwest over the Philippine Sea in the coming hours before making landfall along the eastern coast of Cagayan on Thursday afternoon.

So far, the super typhoon still has maximum sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 230 km/h.

“Landfall at or near super typhoon intensity is likely,” said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its 11 am bulletin on Thursday.

These are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 am:

Signal No. 5

Typhoon-force winds (185 km/h), extreme threat to life and property

• northeastern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)

Signal No. 4

Typhoon-force winds (118 to 184 km/h), significant to severe threat to life and property

• Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan (Santa Teresita, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Lal-lo, Allacapan, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca)
• northeastern part of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• Batanes
• rest of Cagayan
• northern, central, and southeastern parts of Isabela (San Pablo, Delfin Albano, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, San Mariano, Dinapigue)
• northern part of Apayao (Flora, Santa Marcela, Luna, Pudtol, Calanasan, Kabugao)
• northern part of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Dumalneg)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• western and southern parts of Isabela (Quezon, Quirino, Mallig, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Cauayan City, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, Reina Mercedes, Luna, Roxas, Angadanan, Alicia, San Guillermo, Echague, Jones, San Agustin, San Mateo, San Isidro)
• northeastern part of Quirino (Maddela)
• rest of Apayao
• Kalinga
• northeastern part of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagayan, San Juan, Lagangilang, Licuan-Baay, Daguioman)
• eastern part of Mountain Province (Paracelis)
• eastern part of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista)
• rest of Ilocos Norte
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of Isabela
• rest of Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• rest of Mountain Province
• rest of Ifugao
• rest of Abra
• northern part of Benguet (Bokod, Mankayan, Kapangan, Atok, Kabayan, Kibungan, Bakun, Buguias, Tublay)
• Ilocos Sur
• northern part of La Union (Luna, Sudipen, Bangar, Santol, San Gabriel, Bagulin, Bacnotan, Balaoan, San Juan)
• northern and central parts of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler, San Luis)

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Rain from Ofel will persist in the next two days. Affected areas must remain on alert for floods and landslides.

Thursday noon, November 14, to Friday noon, November 15

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 millimeters): Cagayan, Isabela
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Quirino, Aurora
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Abra, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya

Friday noon, November 15, to Saturday noon, November 16

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Babuyan Islands

In the next 48 hours, there is still a moderate to high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges “with peak heights reaching 1 to 3 meters” in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora.

After hitting Cagayan’s eastern coast, Ofel may emerge over the Babuyan Channel on Thursday evening “while making another landfall or passing close to Babuyan Islands.”

Then it could turn north northwest to north northeast over the sea west of Batanes on Friday, November 15, before turning northeast starting Saturday, November 16, over the sea east of Taiwan toward Japan’s Ryukyu Islands. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

But PAGASA reiterated that Ofel’s track “may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.”

In the coming hours and days, the weather bureau also expects Ofel to gradually weaken “due to increasing interaction with the landmass of Luzon and Taiwan, as well as the increasingly unfavorable environment over the Luzon Strait and the sea east of Taiwan.”

For sea conditions in the next 24 hours, PAGASA provided an updated outlook:

Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands – waves up to 12 meters high
• Seaboards of Isabela and Batanes – waves up to 8 meters high
• Northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 6 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboard of northern Aurora – waves up to 4 meters high
• Remaining seaboards of Aurora and Ilocos Norte; seaboard of northern mainland Quezon; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboards of Camarines Norte and Ilocos Sur; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high

Ofel is the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the third for November, after Marce (Yinxing) and Nika (Toraji), which both peaked as typhoons and pummeled Northern Luzon.

Aside from Ofel, PAGASA continues to monitor Tropical Storm Man-yi, which is seen to enter PAR on Thursday evening. New story on Man-yi to follow here. – Rappler.com