Su-57E Felon: Would China Buy Russia's Stealth Fighter?
What You Need to Know: Russia’s Su-57 Felon showcased at the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition has sparked speculation about potential buyers.
-Although the Kremlin claimed the aircraft impressed attendees and secured "first contracts" for an export version, China is an unlikely customer. With its domestically built fifth-gen J-20 and J-35 fighters and a sixth-gen demonstrator in the works, Beijing has little reason to pursue the Su-57.
-Moscow has sought buyers in Algeria, India, Malaysia, and Turkey without confirmed deals. Algeria, rumored to operate a Su-57 already, remains the most probable buyer amidst ongoing efforts by Russia to attract foreign interest.
China Didn't Buy the Su-57 – But Russia May Have Found a Foreign Buyer
Despite the very public mockery that Russia's Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO reporting name Felon) received on social media last week, the fifth-generation stealth aircraft still impressed crowds at the 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition. Or at least Russian officials are claiming those in attendance were impressed.
"The Su-57's international debut in China was striking and clearly demonstrates our strong commitment to this area," Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told state media outlet Tass on Wednesday.
Zakharova further stressed that military experts "praised" the Su-57's "unmatched capabilities," when it took part in an aerial demonstration on Tuesday, the opening at what has become China's largest aviation-themed airshow and trade exhibition. The biennial event kicked off outside the city of Zhuhai in the Guangdong province – the first since Beijing lifted Covid-19 restrictions last year.
Is China a Buyer for the Su-57 Felon?
As previously reported, this is the first time that the Sukhoi Su-57 has been presented at Airshow China, or even landed in China. That fact led to conjecture and speculation that Moscow could grant Beijing a much closer look at the fifth-generation fighter in hopes of scoring a sale.
The Kremlin has sought to find foreign buyers as well as partners for the multirole fighter, and while China and Russia have forged closer ties, it would seem a serious reach to believe that Moscow would look to Beijing as either a customer or even joint producer of the aircraft. Yet, Russia's state arms seller Rosoboronexport announced on Wednesday that it had "signed the first contracts" for an "export version of the Su-57."
"The system of military-technical cooperation should bring new armaments and military hardware to the market. We have already signed the first contracts for the Su-57," Rosoboronexport CEO Alexander Mikheyev said on the sidelines of the airshow.
"The economic effect is that we have our presence on the market and our partners from friendly countries want to buy Russian reliable and proven armament and, correspondently, to support our industry with export orders so that we can develop further and from generation to generation we used to create new products for the next 10-15 years," the Rosoboronexport chief added.
What Mikheyev Didn't Say on Su-57
We need to carefully look at what Mikheyev said and more importantly at what he didn't say. Russia announced it found a customer for the Su-57, but we've heard such hyperbole before and likely will again.
Rosoboronexport has continued to court foreign buyers for the Su-57E, the export model of the Su-57, but without much interest. Moscow has claimed to have received requests from potential client states including Algeria, India, Malaysia, and Turkey. Those sales remain in stealth mode and have yet to de-cloak.
Beijing may have those closer ties with Moscow, but China is already positioned to be the senior partner in their new relationship and likely won't go back to being subservient. More importantly, China also showed off its Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon this week to great fanfare, revealing the twin-seat model – the only two-seater fifth-generation fighter to date. Also seen in the skies was the Shenyang J-35A, the carrier-based variant of the FC-31.
China is now the only nation, besides the United States, to operate two fifth-generation fighters – and both were domestically built. It does need a third, and certainly not one that Russia is struggling to produce. Then there is the fact that Beijing revealed a mock-up of its "sixth-generation" White Emperor demonstrator. If China is thinking about a next-gen aircraft, it isn't going to buy the Su-57 under any circumstances.
Betting money should go to Algeria, which reportedly already operates one.
Of course, given that Russia was mocked on social media, China showcased not one but two fifth-gen fighters, the Kremlin may have just claimed it had customers lined up. Let's just call it a " Canadian Internet Girlfriend," as in it is a lie that for now is hard to prove.
Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.
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