The Leaders of the World’s Top 13 Polluters Are Skipping COP29

BAKU, Azerbaijan — World leaders are converging Tuesday at the United Nations annual climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan although the big names and powerful countries are noticeably absent, unlike past climate talks which had the star power of a soccer World Cup.

But 2024’s COP29 climate talks are more like the International Chess Federation world championship, lacking the recognizable names but big on nerd power and strategy. The top leaders of the 13 largest carbon dioxide-polluting countries will not appear. Their nations are responsible for more than 70% of 2023’s heat-trapping gases.

“The people who are responsible for this are absent,” said Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko during his speech at the summit. “How effective are our actions at this meeting, when the President of France, which was the country which was responsible for the Paris is not even here, feels it’s not relevant? There’s nothing to be proud about.”

France isn’t the only one. The world’s biggest polluters and strongest economies — China and the United States — aren’t sending their No. 1s. India and Indonesia’s heads of state are also not in attendance, meaning the four most populous nations with more than 42% of all the world’s population aren’t having leaders speak.

“It’s symptomatic of the lack of political will to act. There’s no sense of urgency,” said climate scientist Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics. He said this explains “the absolute mess we’re finding ourselves in.”

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Leaders highlight inevitable warming and energy transition

The world has witnessed the hottest day, months and year on record “and a master class in climate destruction,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the world leaders who did show up.

But Guterres held out hope, saying, in a veiled reference to Donald Trump’s re-election in the United States, that the “clean energy revolution is here. No group, no business, no government can stop it.”

United Nations officials said in 2016, when Trump was first elected, there were 180 gigawatts of clean energy and 700,000 electric vehicles in the world. Now there’s 600 gigawatts of clean energy and 14 million electric vehicles.

Host Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev kicked off two scheduled days of world leaders’ speeches by lambasting Armenia, western news media, climate activists and critics who highlighted his country’s rich oil and gas history and trade, calling them hypocritical since the United States is the world’s biggest oil producer. He said it was “not fair” to call Azerbaijan a “petrostate” because it produces less than 1% of the world’s oil and gas.

Oil and gas are “a gift of the God” just like the sun, wind and minerals, Aliyev said. “Countries should not be blamed for having them. And should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market because the market needs them.”

Rev. Fletcher Harper, of GreenFaith, in a statement called out the reference to religion and instead called fossil fuels “literally the highway to hell for billions of people and the planet.”

As the host and president of the climate talks, called COP29, Aliyev said his country will push hard for a green transition away from fossil fuels, “but at the same time, we must be realistic.”

With many heavyweights away, U.K. and smaller nations fill the void

One of the most notable leaders to make the talks is U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. He announced an 81% emissions reduction target on 1990 levels by 2035, in line with the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times.

Many climate analysts welcomed the announcement. “It sets a strong bar for other countries,” said Debbie Hillier, the global climate policy lead of Mercy Corps. Nick Mabey from the climate think-tank E3G said “other nations should follow suit with high-ambition targets.”

There’s also a strong showing from the leaders of some of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. Several small island nations presidents and over a dozen leaders from countries across Africa are speaking the two-day World Leaders’ Summit.

“Our forebears map the tides with sticks, coconut fronds and shells. It is in our blood to know when a tide is turning. And on climate, the tide is turning today,” said Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine. “Time will judge those that fail to make the transition.”

United Nations officials downplayed the lack of head of state star power, saying that every country is represented and active in the climate talks.

One logistical issue is that next week, the leaders of the most powerful countries have to be half a world away in Brazil for the G20 meetings. The recent election in the United States, Germany’s government collapse, natural disasters and personal illnesses also have kept some leaders away.

Climate negotiators focus on money

The major focus of the negotiations is climate finance, which is rich nations trying to help poor countries pay for transitioning their economies away from fossil fuels, coping with climate change’s upcoming harms and compensating for damages from weather extremes.

“It’s not surprising that richer nations are trying to downplay the importance of this crucial finance COP,” said Rachel Cleetus from the Union of Concerned Scientists. “They’re trying to evade their responsibility to pay up.”

Nations are negotiating over huge amounts of money, anywhere from $100 billion a year to $1.3 trillion a year. That money “is not charity, it’s an investment,” Guterres said. “Developing countries must not leave Baku empty-handed.”

In the negotiations backroom, the G77 and China negotiating bloc — which includes many of the world’s developing countries — put forward a unified demand of $1.3 trillion annual climate finance for the first time. The bloc’s representative said the framework submitted for negotiations cannot be accepted by them and will need to be revised.

“We will not get a strong new goal in Baku if it is not shaped in a way that respects the G77 positions,” said Iskander Erzini Vernoit, director of Moroccan climate think-tank Initiative for Climate and Development. “The G77 and China are setting the agenda.”

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