A Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl is beginning to feel inevitable thanks to Week 10
It’s not a bold statement to suggest the teams with the best record in each conference will meet in Super Bowl 59. But the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions have a momentum behind them that feels more powerful than a Wild Card bye.
The two teams are a combined 17-1. There have been a few blowouts in that pile, but Week 10 reinforced the quality that could propel the Chiefs to their third straight Super Bowl and the Lions to their first ever. These two teams are built with alligator blood. They’re capable of going through long periods of inactivity replicating death, just to thoroughly destroy an opponent when the moment is right.
Against the Denver Broncos, the Chiefs dug an early 14-3 hole before slowly coming to life. With their run game shuttered — Kansas City’s tailbacks averaged 2.4 yards per carry — Patrick Mahomes had a typical 2024 performance. He didn’t overwhelm with gaudy numbers, but he put his team in position to win with a late scoring drive.
Denver answered and its win probability climbed to 80 percent after a last minute drive set up a potential 35-yard game-winning field goal. But Will Lutz’s kick never sniffed the goalposts.
NOT IN OUR HOUSE pic.twitter.com/CnXgKHl3jU
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 10, 2024
The Houston Texans had a 92.1 percent win probability at halftime of their primetime game against the Lions, and that was before Jared Goff threw his fourth and fifth interceptions of the evening. Instead, Houston failed to score a single point in the second half. Goff course corrected for three straight scoring drives to erase a 16-point deficit thanks to a field goal that cleared the left upright by millimeters.
WE'RE GONNA FLY HOME ON THE WINGS OF JAKE BATES
@DanMillerFox2 pic.twitter.com/SsvTiXzpht
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 11, 2024
These weren’t merely two wins from good teams — these were triumphs in the face of what looked like certain defeat. No one would have faulted Detroit or Kansas City for a regular season stumble either against a division rival (Denver) or on the road against a likely playoff team (Houston). Instead, each turned a reset week into another victory and even more distance between themselves and the rest of their respective conferences.
That wasn’t anything new for the Chiefs. So far they’ve come out victorious because:
- Isaiah Likely’s feet are a centimeter too big (Week 1, 27-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens)
- the Bengals gave up a 4th-and-16 via pass interference (Week 2, 26-25 win over the Cincinnati Bengals)
- Raheem Morris drew up a brutal fourth-and-1 run for Bijan Robinson (Week 3, 22-17 win over the Atlanta Falcons)
- Justin Herbert couldn’t create two-minute drill magic (Week 4, 17-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers)
- and Baker Mayfield couldn’t call a coin flip correctly (Week 9, 30-24 overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
Taken as one-off games, Kansas City seems lucky. But as an overall trend, this is a team that cannot be buried; a shuffling zombie capable of invading any safe house to ruin your day.
The Lions haven’t dealt with as much drama, but have been similarly resourceful in victory. They can win by lighting up the scoreboard like a firework show, as seen in three different games in which Detroit has scored at least 42 points. They can win a slopfest, as they did in Week 9 at a rainy Lambeau Field. They can thrive even when Goff throws five interceptions or throws for fewer than 200 yards — in fact, they’re 3-0 in that latter category this year.
It’s easy to give the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt because they’re the Chiefs. They’ve been to the Super Bowl four of the last five seasons. But this is new territory for Detroit.
The Lions have more to prove, and they’re getting it done with a versatile offense but also a top five defense that’s turned 2023’s fatal flaw — a thin secondary — into a strength. Detroit’s -0.072 expected points added (EPA) per opponent dropback ranks fifth in the NFL; in 2023 that same unit ranked 25th. The Chiefs aren’t quite as solid defensively, but Steve Spagnuolo’s unit clamps shut when necessary and sits just outside the top 10 with the ability to break through over the back end of the season.
via rbsdm.com
This all leads to a very chalky conclusion. The Chiefs and Lions seem destined for an exciting, occasionally frustrating Super Bowl matchup in which both teams seem cooked and find ways to rally.
There’s still time to derail this — eight weeks for injuries to pile up and the loose threads of early autumn to blossom into wholesale unravelings. But Kansas City and Detroit keep winning, ugliness be damned. That’s scary for the rest of the NFL in 2024.