The F-22 Raptor Has Numbers Problem That Can't Be Solved

What You Need to Know: The decision to end the F-22 Raptor program prematurely—building only 195 out of a planned 381 airframes—remains controversial. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates halted production in 2009, citing the Raptor’s “niche” role and budget constraints, favoring a next-generation bomber program.

-The F-22’s high performance in air superiority and peer threats like China and Russia has left advocates disappointed with Gates’s decision, especially given current global tensions.

-Although the USAF has managed to adapt with F-35s and upgraded F-15EXs, critics argue that cutting the F-22 program left a crucial gap in U.S. airpower.

The F-22 Raptor Program Was Ended Way Too Early

Controversial, pot-stirring question: Was the F-22 Raptor 5th Generation stealth fighter program (one of the many genius brainchildren of Lockheed Martin’s legendary “Skunk Works” division) ended way too early?

My unapologetic, equally controversial, pot-stirring answer: Heck to the yes it was.

I’ve been convinced of this since the summer of 2016 (during which time I just so happened to be a contractor at Balad Airbase, Iraq, supporting the Iraqi Air Force F-16 fighter jet program in their fight against the Islamic State/ISIS/ISIL/Da’esh), when I read the book “Air Power Abandoned: Robert Gates, the F-22 Raptor and the Betrayal of America's Air Force,” by my dearly departed friend the late Robert F. “Bob” Dorr (11 September 1939 – 12 June 2016). Bob was a U.S. Air Force veteran and former Air Force Times columnist whom I daresay ranks second only to the late Martin Caidin  (14 September 1927 – 24 March 1997) as the most prolific military aviation author of all time (fiction and nonfiction alike).

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) on F-22 

If you're an Air Force veteran and/or advocate of strong airpower like the author and I both are/were, you will be frustrated and dismayed by then-Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) Robert Gates’s incredibly shortsighted decided to abruptly kill the F-22 Raptor program in April 2009 – after less than half of the required number of 381 were built shortsightedness.

It's all well and good to emphasize our nation's abilities to fight counterinsurgency (COIN) wars in places like Afghanistan and Iraq, but that does not excuse justify leaving our Air Force's aging fighter fleet high & dry against "near-peer" and “rogue state” adversaries like China, North Korea, and revanchist Russia.

Mr. Dorr, despite his rightfully negative assessments of Gates' actions as SECDEF, also states that Mr. Gates was a decent, honorable, and patriotic American; that may very well be the case, but after reading "Air Power Abandoned," I find myself feeling a lot less respect for Bob Gates, that's for sure. 

The Details (and Mr. Gate’s Justification/Rationalization)

The hard numbers: out of the 381 F-22 airframes originally planned, only 195 – eight test planes and 187 production models – were actually built.

Secretary Gates’s official rationale at the time was:

“There is no doubt that the F-22 has unique capabilities that we need – the penetration and defeat of an advanced enemy air defense and fighter fleet. But, the F-22 is, in effect, a niche, silver-bullet solution required for a limited number of scenarios – to overcome advanced enemy fighters and air defense systems.”

Well, gee, Bobby-Boy, in light of current events in Eastern Europe and East Asia alike, maybe that “number of scenarios” isn’t so limited after all, eh?

Anyway, scratching beneath the surface, it looks like there’s more to then-SECDEF Gates’s decision than what he told the press. Retired U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff General Norton Schwartz stated in his 2018 memoir that it was motivated by the desire to make room within the USAF budget for a next-generation Stealth bomber, i.e. what we now know as the B-21 Raider. Given the financial troubles that the Raider is now facing, that just makes the killing of the F-22 look even dumber.

Meanwhile, thankfully America does have another 5th Generation stealth fighter still in production, the F-35 Lightning II (coincidentally also a Lockheed Martin Skunk Works product), at its disposal. The problem is, the Lightning II has been infamously plagued by controversial cost overruns and reliability issues (the American-owned warbirds, that is; for whatever reason, the Israelis and the Aussies seem to be having no such issues with their own F-35s). The is also falling back on the 4.5 Generation upgraded iteration of the F-15, the F-15EX Eagle II, as a stopgap measure to fill in the void left by the F-22 shortfall.

What's Next for the F-22 Raptor?

As the saying goes, “If life gives you lemons, make lemonade,” or to use a synonymous mantra that’s popular in the military, “Adapt, Improvise. Overcome.”

Accordingly, the USAF is doing its best to make do with the Raptors in does have (178 of them, according to the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft [WDMMA]). This was most dramatically demonstrated on 6 February 2023, when the Raptor got its first air-to-air kill by finally shooting down that Chinese spy balloon off the coast of South Carolina an entire week after the intruder had invaded American airspace.

Meanwhile, hopefully, the USAF, Navy, and Marine Corps alike will get those bugs worked out of their F-35s, and time will tell whether the Air Force’s 6th Generation Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter program and/or the  “notional Light Fighter concept" and/or the USN’s 6th Generation F/A-XX fighter ever managed to get off the ground (literally and figuratively).

And Secretary Gates, in the unlikely event you happen to be reading this: Shame, shame, shame on you.

About the Author 

Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor for National Security Journal (NSJ). He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He has also been published in The Daily Torch , The Journal of Intelligence and Cyber Security, and Simple Flying. Last but not least, he is a Companion of the Order of the Naval Order of the United States (NOUS). 

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