Predicting the Guardians’ Offseason Moves

Because we are all bored

As we sit around and wait for MLB free agency to start, we are all wondering what the Guardians will do, if anything.

So, let’s guess! The Guardians need starting pitching, we know they aren’t going to spend a lot of money on it, and we know they won’t want to trade their top prospects if they can avoid it. We also know that the Guardians have three gold glove award nominees on their infield, so they can bet on pitchers with high groundball rates to exceed their expected pitching metrics with their infielders behind them.

It’s a good way to get good value for lower prices. So, you can bet the Guardians will explore it. We recently compiled a list of potentially available starting pitchers here, but we didn’t attempt to do much predicting. With groundball rates in mind, here are some names to consider:

Free Agents:
Walker Buehler, LHP - 45.5% groundball rate
Trevor Williams, RHP - 45.4% groundball rate
Kyle Gibson, RHP - 44.8% groundball rate
Frankie Montas, RHP - 41.6% groundball rate
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP - 42.6% groundball rate
Jose Quintana, LHP - 47.4% groundball rate
Alex Cobb, RHP - 54.6% groundball rate for his career
(Note: Matthew Boyd had a 38.8% groundball rate from 2021-2023)

Analysis: Cobb, Gibson, Montas and Quintana are the cheapest names on this list. So, it’s safe to assume the Guardians are already in regular communication there, while monitoring whether or not the Buehler, Williams and Kikuchi tier will fall into a managable price range. Personally, I like the idea of seeing if Williams can stay healthy because there is a lot of upside there. But, my prediction is that they find a way to sign Matthew Boyd and 1-2 other options on this list. I’ll say Gibson and Quintana. It’s a smaller version of the Royals 2023-2024 offseason, yay!

Potential Trades:
Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox - 45.1% groundball rate
Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami - 47% groundball rate
Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Arizona - 42.7% groundball rate
Merrill Kelly, RHP, Arizona - 42.5% groundball rate
Erick Fedde, RHP, St. Louis - 42.1% groundball rate
Jameson Taillon, RHP, Cubs - 40.6% groundball rate

Analysis: I don’t really see the Guardians landing a starter. But, I do think that Edward Cabrera seems like a guy they could turn into a frontline starter. And the Cubs would probably eat at least a little of Taillon’s contract to get a decent prospect or two for him. Crochet is the dream. If the White Sox are reasonable in terms of trading inside the Central, they should absolutely sell out for him. But, as I noted, I’m trying to stay reasonable here.

I predict they find a way to grab Matthew Boyd and one of Kyle Gibson or Jose Quintana. Let’s say a planned starting rotation for Opening Day of:

1. Tanner Bibee, RHP
2. Matthew Boyd, LHP
3. Gavin Williams, RHP
4. Kyle Gibson, RHP
5. Joey Cantillo, LHP

Immediate Depth: Ben Lively, RHP, Triston McKenzie, RHP, Logan Allen, LHP, Doug Nikhazy, LHP, Austin Peterson, RHP.

Ok, let’s see how wrong I can be!