The NGAD Fighter Might Be Set to Crash and Burn Thanks to 1 Word

Cost: The Air Force’s ambitious Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter program has been paused due to staggering costs and concerns over outdated design elements.

-Initially projected at $300 million per aircraft, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall halted the program to reassess its feasibility, especially given budget constraints and rapidly evolving threats.

-The NGAD, intended to replace the F-22, may see major design changes to lower costs, potentially leading to a smaller, single-engine fighter.

-Whether the NGAD program will proceed will likely be decided by year-end as the Air Force explores cost-effective alternatives.

Air Force Puts Next-Gen Fighter Program on Hold: Is the NGAD Doomed?

The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program has been paused, casting doubt on the likelihood that the Air Force’s sixth generation fighter program will ever be produced. The reason for the pause: cost. The NGAD fighter was projected to cost multiple hundreds of millions of dollars per aircraft. Far too much. 

Instead, the Air Force will reevaluate, with an eye towards cost reductions. But the reevaluation puts the project back at square one, which means we are likely many years away from ever seeing a finished NGAD product, assuming the project doesn’t get canceled outright.  

Reevaluating the NGAD Fighter 

The NGAD, “faces a crucial design review between now and the end of the year,” Air and Space Forces reported. “What kind of aircraft the Air Force needs, what it can afford, and how long it will be before that aircraft is available all hang in the balance.” 

Classified sources suggest the original design was set to cost $300 million per aircraft, prompting Air Force Secretary Mark Kendall to pause the NGAD program. Kendall explained that the Air Force needed to take, “a very hard look at whether we’ve got the right design concept or not.” 

Whether the NGAD program proceeds or not will likely be determined in the next three months. Kendall has assembled a panel of experts to help guide the decision, which Kendall is expecting before the 2026 budget submission.  

Kendall also emphasized that cost wasn’t the only factor prompting the NGAD pause. The NGAD design is already several years old, and given how fast threats are evolving, some of the NGAD’s design elements are already outdated. The NGAD was intended to replace the F-22 and to provide the Air Force with the world’s most capable air superiority platform. The mission was critical; producing an already outdated platform at $300 million-a-pop was unacceptable. 

The program was paused because of, “threat changes; because of financial constraints; because of the development of technology,” Kendall said.  

Too Expensive for the U.S. Military

Emerging threat technologies aside, the Air Force’s fiscal realities may be the NGAD’s most significant barrier. Inflation has reduced the Air Force’s ability to procure new products. The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 has reduced the Air Force’s ability to procure new products. And the NGAD isn’t alone in competing for new slices of the Air Force budget; other modernization platforms include the B-21 bomber, the T-7 trainer, and the E-7 EWAC.  

So, the fiscal constraints have prompted Kendall to reevaluate the NGAD. “Given $200 million, what would you buy: one NGAD, or one F-35 and four CCAs?” Kendall asked.  

To reduce the cost of the NGAD, the Air Force will likely tinker with design elements, such as crafting a small aircraft, or removing one of the two engines, or perhaps, “off-loading some functions to other platforms.”  

But the big question now is whether the NGAD program will proceed at all. We’ll probably know soon.  

About the Author: Harrison Kass, Defense Expert 

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken. 

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