China unveils fiscal stimulus amid Trump victory

A new stimulus plan was unveiled by Chinese authorities Friday in an effort to stimulate China’s slumped infrastructure and property markets, which could be squeezed further by President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S.

Details on the stimulus package were reportedly revealed at China’s Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, which was delayed in October so the Chinese government could adjust to the U.S. presidential results.

Set to be worth $1.4 trillion, which equates to roughly $10 trillion yuan, the stimulus is part of a strategy to stabilize the world’s second-largest economy and possibly soften the blow of the tariffs which could reach as high as 60%.

The Associated Press reported economists indicated early the package may not be enough, and the Chinese government should do more to energize the economy for the long term.

China is currently in the grip of deflationary pressure, with consumer and business confidence at an all-time low and record unemployment for China’s young workers. Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris has stimulated the stock markets, pushing iShares MSCI China up by 5.2% to $52.33 a share.

According to NBC, analysts expected China to increase its fiscal support, but warned the Chinese Communist Party may remain conservative in its spending and not directly support consumers.

The People’s Bank of China has reportedly cut interest rates after authorities approved an increase to the nation’s deficit in October, bumping it from 3% to 3.8%. However, analysts have said China’s debt levels are far higher than reported, reaching over $30 billion.

Barron’s reported Trump could upend any long-term gains that could come from China’s push to stimulate its economy, likely keeping Chinese stocks volatile until Trump takes office and reveals the staff in his administration.

The report further noted Chinese authorities considered delaying the additional spending until the National People’s Congress met fully next March. However, Trump along with U.S. officials want China to boost its domestic economy, rather than flooding the U.S. with goods.

Ellen Zenter, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley said the stimulus won’t bring back the huge growth that China has seen over recent years.

“This is not stimulus that’s gonna send China back to 6%, 7%, 8% growth. I mean, our China economists are expecting nominal growth to be around 3.9%, and now they’ve probably moved the needle on that,” Zenter said, adding, “It’s probably going to be somewhat faster than that. But it’s not gonna be … China growth of old.”

Zenter said China could stabilize its deflationary effects on the rest of the world, however, it won’t be enough to fully bring back China’s economy.

Shehzad Qazi, COO of China Beige Book, told Squawk Box CNBC, he wouldn’t even consider the deal a real stimulus package, and noted China is simply recycling debt.

“This is not the stimulus that markets were looking for, at all. This is not stimulus, I think, to begin with. What they’re doing is recycling debt, and we’ve seen this playbook in China over and over again,” Qazi said, adding he doesn’t think it will do much to stimulate growth.

Qazi pointed out local governments have been allowed to issue bonds through the stimulus to ease some of their debts, but it just pushes that debt back on to the central government. While this could do some good, like bringing down interest rate payments, Qazi noted overall it doesn’t do much.

“I don’t think this does anything to actually stimulate growth, not at least in a way that’s going to be meaningful for markets,” says @shehzadhqazi of @ChinaBeigeBook on China’s new $1.4T stimulus package. pic.twitter.com/HNYU2M5ygG

— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) November 8, 2024

Bloomberg’s Rebecca Choong Williams said the package was simply a debt-swap program, and didn’t address China’s biggest problem facing it right now, which is low domestic consumption.

“Essentially what this is is a 10 trillion yuan debt-swap program … What we didn’t hear about was anything specific on property, anything specific on consumption, or trying to boost domestic demand,” Choong Williams said.

China unveiled a somewhat confusing stimulus package today, releasing figures in dribs and drabs. I make of sense of key details and investor disappointment w/ @annaedwardsnews

Full clip here: https://t.co/rn2seWVmQO pic.twitter.com/aPwjZDD4oL

— Rebecca Choong Wilkins 钟碧琪 (@RChoongWilkins) November 8, 2024