FL Week 10 Picks — 2024’s Biggest Surprises, Jets O/Us, and More

Betting Life’s Matthew Freedman, Matt LaMarca, and Geoff Ulrich take a hard look at your New York Jets, give some fantasy streaming advice, offer their favorite underdogs – and more. So much more… 

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Jets Over/Under 

•  The Jets remain an enigma — wrapped inside a quagmire. Their current O/U is set at 7.5 wins, What are we doing?

Matthew Freedman: I have the Jets projected for 7.1 wins, right in line with their market total of 7.5, which is juiced to the under (-140 to -162). So if I were to bet on this number, the under would be my lean, but I don’t see much (if any) value at the current odds. I’m just happy to have the under already in the bag — under 9.5 (+132). 

LaMarca: I feel like I’m in a toxic relationship with the Jets. As much as I want to quit them… I just can’t. They still have more talent than most teams in football, and that hasn’t changed with Davante Adams and Haason Reddick joining the fold in recent weeks. They only have one game left on their schedule that looks like a “can’t win:” on the road in Week 17 vs. the Bills. Other than that, they have the Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins (twice), Jaguars, and Rams. They can find five wins in that bunch. 

Ulrich: Ugh. As badly as I want to say just pass (or bet the under), there is likely some value in taking over 7.5 wins at +132 (FanDuel). New York is 3-5 and has four games left against teams with losing records. Next week, they’re just +100 on the moneyline against a Cardinals team that has a -7.0 point differential on the season. If they beat Arizona they have a great shot at getting to eight wins or better. It’s not a bet I’m running out to make, but after their luck turned last Thursday who’s to say they can’t pull out a few more close games down the stretch?  

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Biggest Surprise Team This Season

•  Who has been this year’s biggest surprise team for you, good or bad?

Matthew Freedman: The Panthers. No one could accuse me of being an optimist, but I expected this team to compete for the division title in a weak NFC South. I projected the rebuilt offense to be at least competent. I imagined that second-year QB Bryce Young would develop under the tutelage of first-year HC Dave Canales, who would have a shot at winning Coach of the Year. All across the board, I was wrong. For the third year in a row, this is the worst team in football. 

Geoff Ulrich: I figured the Commanders would be improved and may even push the Eagles and Cowboys a bit for second place in the NFC East, but also figured they would be flawed enough – either due to Jayden Daniels’ rawness or their defense’s ineffectiveness – to be a nonfactor in the playoff race.  Neither of those scenarios has come to pass. Washington has improved vastly since the start of the year on defense, and so as long as Daniels continues to play at an MVP level they’re going to make the playoffs and push the Eagles for the division win.   

Matt LaMarca: The Commanders are the clear and obvious call in a positive direction, but Geoff has already touched on them. Instead, I’ll focus on the Bengals in the negative. This was a team that was believed to be one of the best in football. I bet them to finish with the best record in the league! Instead, they’re just fighting to grab one of the final Wild Card spots. Their defense has been a travesty all season, which has overshadowed a phenomenal season from Joe Burrow and the offense. The book isn’t written on the Bengals quite yet, but they still have to navigate a really tough schedule. A few more losses, and this team is going to be on the outside looking in come playoff time. 

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Fantasy Football Streamers

• We’re in the thick of fantasy season. Who’s a streamer you like this week rostered in under 40% of leagues? 

Freedman: I love that this question assumes I’d have any sort of sense as to which players have which roster rates across various types of leagues. I’m flattered. That said, I’m just going to assume that Giants QB Daniel Jones is rostered in far less than 40% of leagues. As I mention in this week’s Freedman’s Favorites (QB Edition), Jones was the No. 4 fantasy QB last week, and the Panthers offer him a top-five matchup. It’s gross, but it’s viable. 

LaMarca: Give me Ricky Pearsall for the 49ers. I’m not sure whether or not Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings will return to the lineup in Week 10, but even if they do, there should be more than enough fantasy value to go around vs. the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has been one of the most fantasy-friendly matchups for opposing offenses all season. Their defense isn’t great, and their offense is good enough that opposing teams have to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters. Pearsall should take on a more prominent role for the 49ers now that Brandon Aiyuk is out of the lineup, and I think he’s startable in this matchup. 

Ulrich: Juwan Johnson. The Falcons have allowed the eighth most fantasy points per game according to our DvP Tool and have allowed 19 catches on 25 targets to opposing TEs over their last two games. Johnson often goes overlooked as he’s always been behind Olave and Shaheed for targets but given the injuries to the Saints WR core, he may end up being a primary target this week.  

 He’s also gone for 40+ yards against Atlanta in four of his last meetings with the Falcons. At a very volatile position, he could be the next breakout star in Week 10.  

You can find more of our NFL free bets in our bet tracker as well. And upset picks can be found in our NFL betting model for Week 9. 

Rapid Fire Questions – 5 word answers

 Answer the following questions in exactly five words:

•  What’s your Joe Flacco outlook?

Freedman: Still better than Anthony Richardson. 

LaMarca: Gives them the best chance.

Ulrich: Wins this week. Then playoffs.  

•  Give us a Giants/Panthers bet to make!

Freedman: Giants should be -7 favorites. 

LaMarca: Take the Under in Germany

Ulrich: Tyrone Tracy anytime TD (+100; bet365) 

• Who’s your favorite Week 10 underdog?

Freedman: Steelers. Classic Mike Tomlin spot. 

LaMarca: Always trust Tomlin plus points. 

Ulrich: Patriots. Eberflus next to go.

• Who will win the NFL rushing title this year?

Freedman: Saquon Barkley … to be contrarian. 

LaMarca: Henry might win by 500.

Ulrich: No one catching King Henry.  

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