Indiana over Michigan by two TDs? College football in 2024 is a mad, mad world
A bye week came right on time for Illinois, a 6-3 team on a two-game losing streak that could use the extra days to try and figure out if something surprisingly good is happening this season or not.
Northwestern has a bye, too, which might matter, though it’s hard to say. The Wildcats are 4-5 and soon could be staring into the abyss of a 4-8 finish.
Notre Dame is 7-1 and in the expanded, 12-team College Football Playoff picture heading into what was supposed to be a blockbuster game against Florida State. Alas, it’s a mangy mutt of a matchup because the Seminoles have turned out to be — at 1-8 — the most underachieving team ever to bumble about the earth.
The upshot, friends, is there isn’t a “local” game worthy of leading this week’s picks column, so let’s not pretend otherwise. But the national slate is A-OK — and will only get bigger and better from here — so let’s get to it (using CFP rankings below, as we will the rest of the season).
WEEK 11 PICKS
Michigan (+14½) at No. 8 Indiana (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): Imagine waking from a months-long slumber and seeing this point spread. Michigan pummeled Indiana 52-7 just last season. Michigan has 27 wins in the last 28 games in this series and is 12-1 in its last 13 visits to Bloomington. What an about-face it has been for the defending national champ — 5-4 and sinking like a stone — as well as, far more excitingly, for the upstart Hoosiers, who are 9-0 and on the doorstep of the first 10-win season in school history.
Indiana in the playoff? Who’d have imagined the college football world would be abuzz with such talk?
“I’m aware of it,” coach Curt Cignetti said. “But to get kind of caught up in that and lose your focus would be the kiss of death.”
Running into an elite opponent could be the kiss of death, too. Fortunately for the Hoosiers — ranked No. 1 in the Big Ten in offense and No. 2 in defense — they haven’t faced so much as a ranked team yet. They keep living the good life, 27-17.
No. 20 Colorado (-4) at Texas Tech (3 p.m., Fox 32): If the weather in Lubbock cooperates, there might be 100 points on the scoreboard when this one’s over — and that’s just counting Colorado’s score. OK, just a joke, but this is an ideal opponent for Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and crew because Texas Tech’s pass rush has generated nothing all season. Buffs, 49-38.
Florida State (+26) at No. 10 Notre Dame (6:30 p.m., NBC 5, 780-AM): “It doesn’t take long to turn on the film and realize how talented [the Seminoles] are,” Irish coach Marcus Freeman insisted this week, with a straight face and everything. One imagines Lou Holtz reading those words and beaming with pride. Anyone else old enough to remember when the ’Noles were 13-0 last season? Irish, 34-9.
No. 11 Alabama (-3) at No. 15 LSU (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): The pressure on both two-loss teams — and especially on both coaches — is immense. Is Kalen DeBoer really going to be kicked to the playoff curb in his first season following Nick Saban? Is Brian Kelly really going to lose three (or more) times for the third straight season since adopting the world’s worst Southern accent? Something to watch is Kelly’s defense against Alabama QB Jalen Milroe, a talented runner. In their last game, the Tigers were completely undone after Texas A&M switched to a running QB coming out of the half. Win or lose, this one’s on the coaches. LSU by a kick.
My favorite favorite: No. 3 Georgia (-2½) at No. 16 Ole Miss (2:30 p.m., ABC 7): I thought Georgia would smoke Florida last weekend, but the game turned out to be close — not the first time these Bulldogs have looked like they were mailing it in. But this is their first playoff-like matchup since they went on the road and messed with top-ranked Texas in terrifying fashion. And these still are the Dawgs, who do big games better than anybody and have won 52 straight against opponents not named Alabama.
My favorite underdog: Utah (+3½) vs. No. 9 BYU (9:15 p.m., ESPN): The “Holy War” is back on after a brief intermission, and an insane rivalry is even nutter this season because unbeaten BYU was supposed to be bad and four-loss Utah was supposed to win the Big 12. The Utes haven’t been themselves without QB Cam Rising, who’s out for the season, but they still play great defense and have one last chance — right here — to feel like big shots. Holy you-know-what, I’m going with an upset.
Last week: 4-1 straight-up, 2-3 against the spread.
Season to date: 44-19 straight-up, 30-32-1 against the spread.