How Chris Boucher has been perfect for the Raptors this year
Hari Seldon sent the best intellectuals of the empire to a distant land under the guise of archivists. From that kernel, that last stand, the recreation of human culture and society came slowly but surely once the empire itself fell. Isaac Asimov proved in his Foundation series that not every last stand is the Alamo. Even after being reduced to a last stand, a final and seemingly doomed resting place, growth and hope can surpass even the most optimistic imagination.
If this was Chris Boucher’s last chance at cracking the rotation for the Toronto Raptors, he has surpassed even the wildest expectations so far this year. He saw his role dwindle slowly over time under Nick Nurse, and then plummet under Darko Rajakovic. Coming into this year, Rajakovic was very coy about promising Boucher a role or minutes. This season was, in some ways, Boucher’s last stand.
He has always been a definitive player for these Raptors, with his length and activity acting as something of a metaphor for the whole team-building project. (Perhaps now Ja’Kobe Walter fills that role of cipher.) But he was definitive for better and for worse, and the Raptors seemed to be heading in a different direction.
So what did Boucher do? He went and became exactly what the Raptors weren’t. What they needed. He filled the hole on the roster, rather than overlapping with it. His per-game scoring average of 10.6 points are his highest since 2020-21, but he’s doing it in so few minutes that his per-36 scoring is the best of his career.
Toronto’s offence is built on passing and activity. And without Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley, there’s a lot of good starts with fewer good finishes, when it comes to individual possessions. They are two of Toronto’s best three or four possession-enders, whether around the rim or from behind the arc.
It turns out you can have too much passing and activity, especially when there aren’t enough players who can just put the ball in the net at the end of all those flurries of movement. Enter Boucher.
He has dispensed with such frills as careful passes and reading the play. When he gets the ball? Yeah, let’s put it in. If he doesn’t touch it, crash to the rim from the corner on a violent cut. If he doesn’t even touch the ball then, snatch the offensive rebound. Pretty simple, but pretty good.
Boucher has been leading lineups of four rookies, or alongside RJ Barrett and three rookies, to hugely successful minutes. The rookies are movers and shakers. Boucher, with his predictable aggression and shooting prowess, has been the foundation to a lot of success. With Barrett shifting to more of a creator this season, given the injuries, he and Boucher together have been especially effective. Toronto’s net rating with the two on the floor has been a plus-17, and it has been negative with either or both on the bench.
Against the Sacramento Kings, Boucher had three triples on his first three touches. Bang bang bang. Just toss it in there, baby. He cut for layups and tipped in misses. He is second on the team in points per touch, behind only firebrand Gradey Dick. He is averaging fewer than one dribble per touch, behind only Jakob Poeltl. He’s taking almost half his shots from deep, a career high, while shooting a very solid 34 per cent. And he’s not just standing in the corner and waiting for the ball to hit his hands; he’s fourth on the team in total above-the-break attempts, with 23 to his name. On a team that is having trouble from behind the arc in both frequency and accuracy, Boucher’s willingness there is a boon. Especially from the big position.
Meanwhile his assist rate has risen from last year but is still incredibly low, even when compared to other bigs. His turnover rate is still scraping the floor. He’s just not making very many complex decisions, so he’s not really making many mistakes. See ball? Fire. And because Toronto has had such dire need for that type of player, and because he’s making those shots he’s firing, his offensive on/off differential per 100 possessions is plus-5.9, third on the team behind only Poeltl and Dick.
Right now, the Raptors need Boucher to play that way. But will they once Barnes and Quickley return? Will Toronto need a pure gunslinger like Boucher?
It’s possible it won’t. When that happens, Barnes and Quickley take over the lion’s share of the initiation reps, which pushes Barrett further down the hierarchy. He’ll be spending more time in the corner, and he’s simply more threatening as a shooter, driver, cutter, and finisher than Boucher. Dick will spend less time initiating, and he’s an assassin from the corners. Quickley will spend his time standing there, too. Boucher will be pushed down the depth chart, perhaps to the point where he’ll be fighting for consistent minutes in the rotation once again. Right now Boucher needs to score more efficiently and more frequently than Jonathan Mogbo, or Bruno Fernando, or other competitors at the power forward and center spots. That’s not so hard for him. When Toronto is healthy (read: if Toronto is healthy), Boucher will be battling far more established players for the same role.
Perhaps he’ll win that fight. If he continues to pour in points, no matter how many minutes he sees, it will be very hard for Rajakovic to excise Boucher from the rotation. He has just been too good. But it will be another battle for Boucher, who has earned much more than the Raptors are prepared to offer him. Such is life in the NBA.
Boucher entered the year cornered, rotationally, having to fight a last stand for minutes and a role. He has decidedly won that last stand, expanded his role, and proved virtually as successful as Seldon’s archivists who eventually established the eponymous Foundation. It’s likely that in a few weeks or months, Boucher is going to have to do it all over again.
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