College football spread picks, Week 11: Georgia-Ole Miss, Colorado-Texas Tech and more

As the College Football Playoff picture begins to come into focus, the contenders for the 12-team field are starting to separate themselves, even with plenty of parity this season. But upsets and disasters are still very possible, and we here at For The Win love college football chaos.

However, after our Week 10 picks, maybe a little less chaos would be welcomed. The majority of our experts didn’t have the best picks against the spread last week, and yours truly finished with the only winning record — plus now a one-game lead in the standings. But all of us whiffed on Duke being able to cover against Miami, along with expecting Clemson and Texas A&M not to collapse.

Onto Week 11, where we have a couple ranked games, some brimming with potential for chaos and, of course, multiple with playoff implications.

So here are our 10 college football picks against the spread for Week 11. Tail responsibly, and best of luck out there.

All odds via BetMGM

Florida at No. 5 Texas, Saturday, noon ET on ABC/ESPN+

Opening Line: Texas -15.5

Blake Schuster: Texas -21.5

Florida’s most likely path here is a backdoor cover after Texas pulls the starters, but even then I think the Longhorns should be able to go up by three scores before halftime.

Mitchell Northam: Texas -21.5

Feels like a game where the Longhorns are going to flex their muscles a bit, and their quarterback won’t gift the Gators the ball a handful of times like UGA did.

Christian D’Andrea: Texas -21.5

I sure do hate that extra 0.5 points. Florida doesn’t know who its quarterback is right now, and the Longhorns won’t make the same multitude of mistakes Georgia did last week.

Michelle Martinelli: Texas -21.5

While I wish the line didn’t shift so much, gotta go with Texas here. The Longhorns’ defense is the best in the FBS for a reason, holding teams to just 241.3 yards and 11.5 points per game, and I don’t see a discombobulated Florida offense keeping this remotely close.

Tyler Nettuno: Texas -21.5

The Gators have taken real strides defensively, but it won’t matter in this game if DJ Lagway doesn’t play, which appears to be the most likely scenario at this point.

No. 4 Miami (Fla.) at Georgia Tech, Saturday, noon ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Miami -14.5

Blake Schuster: Georgia Tech +11.5

Miami has the No. 1 offense in the FBS and is just 5-4 ATS this season. After last week’s beatdown of Duke, I think we’re due for a little bit of regression on the road.

Mitchell Northam: Miami -11.5

Remember what happened last season when the Canes and Yellow Jackets met? Time to make that right, Miami.

Christian D’Andrea: Miami -11.5

I might be done picking against Miami in ACC play after last week. No thank you.

Michelle Martinelli: Georgia Tech + 11.5

The Hurricanes have delivered some convincing wins as of late, playing much more complete games than at the beginning of the season. Cam Ward is still a star and Heisman Trophy contender who will lift his team to a win, but Georgia Tech can still be tricky.

Tyler Nettuno: Miami -11.5

The Hurricanes feel exceedingly gettable with the way they’ve played in recent weeks, but I don’t see this being the game where it happens against a middling Georgia Tech team that lacks offensive explosion.

No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+

Opening Line: Georgia -6.5

Blake Schuster: Ole Miss +2.5

A home dog in a playoff elimination game? Sold.

Mitchell Northam: Georgia -2.5

Have fun in whatever non-CFB bowl will have you, Ole Miss.

Christian D’Andrea: Georgia -2.5

I have little doubt in Ole MIss’s ability to clobber lesser opponents. Butttttt…

Michelle Martinelli: Georgia -2.5

If the opening line held, I probably would have picked the other way. It’s a must-win for Ole Miss if it wants to have any hope of staying in the playoff conversation, but I don’t see that happening.

Tyler Nettuno: Georgia -2.5

With Carson Beck completely turning into a pumpkin over the course of the last five games, this one has my attention a lot more than it previously did. Ole Miss’ pass rush could cause some problems here, but I just don’t have enough confidence to pick it to win this game, despite my Georgia skepticism.

No. 17 Iowa State at Kansas, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1

Opening Line: Iowa State -6.5

Blake Schuster: Iowa State -3

With the game at Arrowhead, I would not be surprised if Iowa State has more fans at the game than the Jayhawks.

Mitchell Northam: Iowa State -3

I just don’t trust Kansas to cover.

Christian D’Andrea: Iowa State -3

I wish I trusted Kansas even a little bit.

Michelle Martinelli: Iowa State -3

The Cyclones’ perfect season ended last week with a heartbreaker, and they’ll be able to take that frustration out against a struggling Kansas team.

Tyler Nettuno: Iowa State -3

This seems like a prime bounce-back opportunity against a Kansas team that has struggled immensely this season.

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS

Opening Line: Indiana -10.5

Blake Schuster: Indiana -14.5

The Hoosiers run up the score on everyone, and Michigan is saving its playoff-hope-crushing performance for Ohio State.

Mitchell Northam: Indiana -14.5

The Hoosiers are going to the playoff, y’all.

Christian D’Andrea: Indiana -14.5

The Hoosiers saw that playoff rankings. They know it’s gotta be statements from here on out.

Michelle Martinelli: Indiana -14.5

The Hoosiers play with a gritty, why-not-us mentality that has them very much in the playoff picture and at the top of the Big Ten standings. They may not finish the season undefeated, but they’ll comfortably be 10-0 after this weekend.

Tyler Nettuno: Indiana -14.5

I’m fully out on the Wolverines, and I may be fully in on the Hoosiers. They have absolutely clobbered teams that are worse than them, and the defending national champions fit into that category, strangely enough.

Colorado at Texas Tech, Saturday, 4 p.m. ET on FOX

Opening Line: Colorado -3

Blake Schuster: Texas Tech +3.5

Last week was no fluke against Iowa State. The Red Raiders are very real and have a number of weapons on offense (ahem, Tahj Brooks and Josh Kelly).

Mitchell Northam: Colorado -3.5

The Buffs seem to have some good momentum right now, and they’re coming off a bye week.

Christian D’Andrea: Colorado -3.5

Tech can throw a wrench in anyone’s plans, but the Buffaloes have a massive opportunity in a disheveled Big 12. They’ll be up for the task.

Michelle Martinelli: Texas Tech +3.5

It’s the .5 that got me here, because while Colorado looks like the better team and should win, the Buffs’ defense gives up a lot of yards on the ground and might have an issue slowing down Tahj Brooks.

Tyler Nettuno: Colorado -3.5

I’ve only become more bullish on the Buffaloes as the rest of the Big 12 seems to be collapsing. Texas Tech is dangerous, but I don’t see it pulling off a second-straight ranked win against a more talented Colorado team.

South Carolina at Vanderbilt, Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network

Opening Line: South Carolina -1.5

Blake Schuster: Vanderbilt +3.5

Stop. Giving. Vandy. Points.

Mitchell Northam: Vanderbilt +3.5

Diego Pavia as a home dog is an immediate no questions asked pick for me.

Christian D’Andrea: Vanderbilt +3.5

Yeah, right, like I’m gonna doubt Diego Pavia at home.

Michelle Martinelli: Vanderbilt +3.5

Who put this game on our list? Chaos written all over it so the home underdog all the way, even against South Carolina’s scary pass rush.

Tyler Nettuno: Vanderbilt +3.5

I think the Gamecocks may be the better team, and I’m very curious to see how Diego Pavia handles this front seven. But I just won’t pick against the ‘Dores to cover again.

No. 11 Alabama at No. 15 LSU, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+

Opening Line: LSU -1.5

Blake Schuster: LSU +3

Both teams are pretty mid against the spread. I’ll take the points at home.

Mitchell Northam: LSU +3

Loser gets eliminated from the playoff hunt. I think LSU has the more well-rounded team.

Christian D’Andrea: LSU +3

Alabama hasn’t been great on the road, and now it’s going to Death Valley? Godspeed.

Michelle Martinelli: LSU +3

I don’t like this pick and have gone back and forth. But Alabama has been far from solid on the road this season, and Death Valley is a notoriously challenging place to play. So give me the points.

Tyler Nettuno: Alabama -3

The Crimson Tide have their fair share of issues, but I really worry about LSU’s ability to slow down Jalen Milroe after Marcel Reed ran all over it in a loss to Texas A&M. Garrett Nussmeier has also been a bit turnover prone, which scares me against this defense.

No. 9 BYU at Utah, Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Utah -17

Blake Schuster: BYU -4

The selection committee just made clear that BYU isn’t getting into the playoff without a Big 12 title. It’s statement time.

Mitchell Northam: BYU -4

I don’t believe in Utah at all right now. I know it’ll play at its best in the Holy War, but that probably won’t be enough against this BYU team.

Christian D’Andrea: BYU -4

Utah, ooooof.

Michelle Martinelli: BYU -4

This isn’t the Utah team everyone thought it would be this season, and BYU is cruising and shouldn’t be underestimated. The Cougars never should have been an underdog in the first place.

Tyler Nettuno: BYU -4

Holy line shift. The Cougars should absolutely roll in this rivalry game against a Utah team that simply does not have the juice without a healthy Cam Rising.

Oklahoma at No. 24 Missouri, Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network

Opening Line: Missouri -3

Blake Schuster: Oklahoma -2.5

The Sooner have covered the spread in their last two games and are coming off a much-needed get-right game against Maine. I’ll take that over what’s left of Mizzou’s psyche.

Mitchell Northam: Missouri +2.5

I don’t feel strongly about this pick, but I’ll ride with Mizzou as a home dog against a pretty meh Oklahoma team.

Christian D’Andrea: Missouri +2.5

I don’t trust either team. Even if Brady Cook doesn’t play I’ll take the points.

Michelle Martinelli: Missouri +2.5

There is no way I’m picking this ridiculously untrustworthy Oklahoma team, even if the Tigers haven’t scored a touchdown since mid-October and Brady Cook is questionable.

Tyler Nettuno: Missouri +2.5

The Tigers are among the more disappointing teams in college football this season, but they should be fine against an Oklahoma team that has been downright anemic offensively this season.