Grammys Record of the Year nominations predictions, from Billie Eilish to The Beatles

The competition for Record of the Year at the 2025 Grammys is quite packed, especially with a slew of pop smashes in the running. While they may not completely dominate, it does look like we might have a lineup full of top-10 hits. Let’s dive in.

A few songs are close to locked. Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” shook the world in 2024, so it’s hard to see the Grammys (who, as arch-nemesis Drake noted, will nominate Lamar for anything) passing on this one. It topped the Billboard Hot 100, and there’s typically a rap selection nominated in the general field. Plus, Lamar previously got in with the far less commercially successful song “The Heart Part 5,” so this one will likely have even more support.

Another lock here is Billie Eilish for “Birds Of A Feather,” which so far has peaked at number-two and has turned into one of her signature hits. Eilish is a Grammy darling with 11 general field noms and six wins, including historic back-to-back Record of the Year victories for “Bad Guy” and “Everything I Wanted.”

It would also be unexpected if Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ‘Em” missed this category. Not only was the song a hit, topping the Hot 100, it was also important, as Beyoncé achieved unprecedented success for a Black woman in country music, a demographic largely ignored in the genre. Beyoncé is also loved by the academy, with eight nominations in this race alone. If she gets in again this year, she’ll extend her record for the most nominations in the category, though she has yet to win it.

Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” is perhaps this year’s defining hit, and Carpenter’s huge surge to fame will surely result in voters checking her name off everywhere, including here. “Espresso” peaked at number-two on the Hot 100, and is so far the longest-running top-10 hit released in 2024. The song’s ’80s-inspired groove will likely be well received by voters who previously awarded songs like Bruno Mars’s “24k Magic” and Lizzo’s “About Damn Time,” which borrow from similar sounds.

Carpenter might be joined by fellow breakout Chappell Roan, as she has also had a meteoric rise. “Good Luck, Babe!,” Roan’s biggest hit, only peaked at number-four, admittedly not as high as some of the other possible nominees, but that’s made up for by Roan’s overall pop cultural impact this year. Still, since both are new artists and thus are untested at the Grammys, Roan and Carpenter could theoretically miss, especially Roan.

Another very likely nominee is Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’s hit “Die with a Smile.” The song has so far peaked at number-two on the Hot 100, and is exactly the kind of adult contemporary-leaning ballad with soul elements that voters will go crazy for. Gaga and Mars are academy favorites too, with nine Record of the Year nominations between them (Mars has won it three times). And considering there’s a lack of major R&B and rock contenders this year, the song could get votes from both blocs due to Mars’s esteem in the R&B world and the song’s use of live instrumentation.

With those six looking pretty likely, the last two spots are up for grabs. The Beatles’ “Now and Then” is a a solid contender on paper. The band is obviously one of the most beloved acts in music history, and this wouldn’t be the first time they were nominated after disbanding. So this song, which debuted in the top 10 on the Hot 100 and topped triple-A radio, is sure to get some support. You can expect rock voters to rally around them, as will pop voters (a field that has supported them for decades). They’re an easy name check, especially being near the top of the alphabetical ballot. There’s also a recent precedent for a veteran appreciation nomination: ABBA, who were nominated in this category in 2022 and 2023.

So what about that coveted last spot? It’s going to be a toss-up between a few hits. There’s Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things,” which is one of the biggest hits of the year. Boone’s main disadvantage is that he may not be quite established enough a presence in the industry, especially to older voters, despite the song’s success. But Boone was pretty high on the ballot, and the song was ubiquitous.

Another breakthrough star is Shaboozey, whose “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has spent a whopping 16 weeks atop the Hot 100 (so far), the second longest run ever. In theory, this should be more than enough for a nomination, but like Boone, being a newer artist with a somewhat lower profile than Carpenter and Roan could hurt him. Country has also struggled to make a splash at the Grammys since the nomination review committees were discontinued, so it could go either way for Shaboozey.

Then there are some more established names. Hozier, who was nominated for Song of the Year a decade ago for “Take Me to Church,” could return with “Too Sweet,” his number-one hit that has rocked the alternative and pop scenes. “Too Sweet” has all the makings of a Record nominee, though it has less buzz than some of the other contenders.

Then there’s Charli XCX, who was nominated here a decade ago as well (for “Fancy” with Iggy Azalea), and could net her second nomination for “360.” The song didn’t hit as big as some of the aforementioned contenders, but Charli has had a banner year with her album “Brat” and the career momentum it generated, especially during the voting period with the release of the “Brat” remix album.

Ariana Grande‘s ballad “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” could be a sentimental pick. The song topped the Hot 100 and has become one of Grande’s most memorable hits. It could also be helped by her viral “Saturday Night Live” hosting gig, which took place in the last few days of voting. as well as by the release of live versions of songs from “Eternal Sunshine,” including “We Can’t Be Friends.”

Last but certainly not least is Taylor Swift and Post Malone’s “Fortnight.” The song was not as dominant as some of Swift’s previous nominees here, with its parent album hitting bigger than the song itself. However, Swift could very easily be name-checked, and “Fortnight” still topped the Hot 100, so Swift-mania could help it out.

My final Record of the Year predictions:

The Beatles, “Now and Then”
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold Em”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Lady Gaga with Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”