Grammys Song of the Year nominations predictions: Pop compositions may dominate

The Grammy Award for Song of the Year honors the best in songwriting, including melodic composition and lyrics. While the category sees its fair share of chart-toppers nominated, sometimes we also get a few lesser known but phenomenally penned tunes, like Lana Del Rey’s “A&W” and Bonnie Raitt’s “Just Like That.” This year we might go back to a lineup full of only hits, but there are one or two surprises looming.

Let’s start with the locks. Billie Eilish is a two-time category winner (“Bad Guy,” “What Was I Made For?”) and a Grammy darling, so it’ll be hard for voters to ignore her smash hit “Birds of a Feather” here. Its themes of love but also fear of loss will surely connect with a lot of academy members. Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’s “Die with a Smile” is another sentimental song, and voters love nominating ballads here. Its lyrics are a bit reminiscent of JP Saxe and Julia Michaels’s “If The World Was Ending,” which got into this category a few years ago, but this song is even more popular and it’s by two industry favorites; it’ll be hard for them to miss.

Kendrick Lamar has been nominated three times here already, and a fourth nomination is likely for his massive hit “Not Like Us.” The song was a huge cultural moment, the apex of his public beef with fellow rapper Drake, and it’s popular almost entirely because of its composition. Diss tracks have been nominated at the Grammys before, albeit not for Song of the Year, but with how successful this song is and how much the Grammys love Lamar, this one is poised to become the first.

Then there’s “Texas Hold ‘Em” by Beyoncé, though this is her toughest race in the general field. The song was lower on the alphabetical ballot and could end up alienating her usual R&B base since it’s a country song. If so, she could miss here, especially if country voters don’t embrace “Cowboy Carter” (like at the CMAs). Still, it is Beyoncé we’re talking about, the most awarded artist in Grammy history, so I won’t predict a snub. And while the country pivot could alienate some, there’s also the possibility that it earns her a new base of voter support.

Others contenders are gunning for their first Grammy nomination here. Perhaps the biggest lock is Chappell Roan for “Good Luck, Babe!” The song, about a relationship failing due to compulsory heterosexuality, is one of the most lyrically innovative contenders in the category. Songs with queer subtext (or just plain text) have previously been nominated here, like Macklemore and Ryan Lewis’s “Same Love” and Lil Nas X’s “Montero (Call Me by Your Name).”

There’s also Sabrina Carpenter‘s “Please Please Please,” her first number-one hit. The song will be carried along by the overwhelming love Carpenter probably will get, as arguably this year’s biggest pop star. “Please Please Please” is also relatable, exploring the feelings of falling for a bad boy despite yourself, and probably boasts the best songwriting out of her singles this year, so it should be good for the nomination.

Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things” was also a breakout hit this year, an emotional rock ballad about the fear of losing valued people and things in your life. The song will surely resonate with an older audience, and it had a great alphabetical ballot placement. We must also consider Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” arguably the biggest hit of the year in the United States. It might not be a lyrical behemoth, but its popularity could make it too big to ignore, and voters might just consider it to be catchy enough to honor its composition.

A few more songs are on the cusp. Doja Cat’s “Agora Hills” was an R&B/pop/rap crossover hit that could benefit from being one of the first songs on the ballot and from its potential appeal to so many voting blocs within the academy. Taylor Swift is a category favorite, having been nominated seven times here in the past, including four times in the past five years. “Fortnight,” her Post Malone-assisted hit, could keep her streak alive.

There’s also Sierra Ferrell’s “American Dreaming,” which could surprise if Americana voters rally behind the roots singer-songwriter. She has had a strong year, with two wins at the Americana Honors and Awards, and her song also benefits from its alphabetical ballot position. And let’s not forget Ariana Grande‘s emotional “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love).” The song might be overshadowed by even more prominent pop releases this year, but Grande has been doing a lot of promotion for her upcoming film “Wicked,” which could keep her in voters’ minds.

My final Song of the Year predictions:

“A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (Shaboozey)
“Birds Of A Feather” (Billie Eilish)
“Die With A Smile” (Lady Gaga with Bruno Mars)
“Fortnight” (Taylor Swift and Post Malone)
“Good Luck, Babe!” (Chappell Roan)
“Not Like Us” (Kendrick Lamar)
“Please Please Please” (Sabrina Carpenter)
“Texas Hold ‘Em” (Beyoncé)