Week 11 picks: Breaking down the Holy War, Cal’s long trip, Washington’s huge challenge and a key game for Oregon State

The trends suggest Utah is the play Saturday night as a home underdog in the first Holy War in three years.

Even though the Utes have dropped four in a row and changed playcallers and quarterbacks.

Even though Brigham Young is undefeated and churning toward a date in the Big 12 title game.

Even though the Cougars have eight wins and the Utes have four.

And when the trends speak, the Hotline typically listens. Here’s what they say:

— Utah has dominated the series, winning 14 of the past 20 matchups and seven of the past nine at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

— The underdog covered the spread in 15 of those 20 games.

— When one team has at least three more wins than the other at the time of kickoff, the team with the better record is 3-0 straight up but 1-2 against the spread.

Those same fundamentals exist this week with the Utes as a four-point home underdog.

But in a season that makes no sense, with the Cougars and Utes in a role reversal for the ages, our instinct is to avoid the sensible and dismiss the trends.

To ignore the lure of the home underdog in a series that favors the home underdog.

Our instinct is to take BYU, give the points and watch the current trajectories continue.

The Utes find ways to lose.

The Cougars find ways to win.

We don’t know how it will unfold but fully expect the unexpected. And in a series dominated by the underdog, the unexpected result would be a decisive victory by the favorite.

To the picks …

Last week: 4-3
Season: 50-35-1
Five-star special: 5-5

All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com

(All times Pacific)

Cal (-7) at Wake Forest
Kickoff: Friday at 5 p.m. on the ACC Network
Comment: The Bears as a touchdown favorite on the road? That presents an opportunity we cannot ignore — an opportunity to take the home underdog. Pick: Wake Forest

San Jose State (+4) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The Beavers have struggled defensively against the run (186 yards per game), but SJSU has no running game to speak of. First-year coach Ken Niumatalolo, who previously coached Navy’s triple option, is all about the aerial game. That should benefit the Beavers. Pick: Oregon State

South Carolina (-3.5) at Vanderbilt
Kickoff: 1:15 p.m. on the SEC Network
Comment: Few teams across the land have been better against the spread than the Commodores, who have covered in all five SEC games. The Gamecocks will be riding high after their upset of Texas A&M and underestimating their opponent. Pick: Vanderbilt

UCF (+3) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: This feels like a pump-the-brakes game for the Sun Devils, who clinched a bowl berth last week and will be feeling good about their trajectory — a bit too good, in our view. Another unexpected result in the wild Big 12. Pick: UCF

Washington (+13.5) at Penn State
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Peacock
Comment: There’s no better time to visit Happy Valley than the week after Penn State suffers a gut-punch loss to Ohio State. We aren’t sure the Huskies can make enough plays offensively to win, but they should be in position to cover if the Nittany Lions start with an OSU hangover. Pick: Washington

Brigham Young (-4) at Utah
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: Both teams had two weeks to prepare, so there’s no competitive advantage either way. One of several crucial differences between the Cougars and Utes is success in situational football: The former scores touchdowns on two of every three trips inside the Red Zone; the latter scores on fewer than half of its Red Zone opportunities. Field goals won’t cut it. Pick: Brigham Young

Utah State (+20.5) at Washington State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The Aggies have one victory over an FBS opponent (Wyoming) while the Cougars have one loss to an FBS opponent (Boise State). This should not be close. And it won’t be, at least in the fourth quarter. Pick: Washington State

Straight-up winners: Wake Forest, Oregon State, Vanderbilt, UCF, Penn State, Brigham Young and Washington State

Five-star special: Brigham Young. The Cougars are 7-1 against the spread this season; the Utes are 2-6. Let’s not over-complicate the situation.

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