Rays Free Agents: Starting Pitcher?

We all love Charlie Morton, right?

The Rays had plenty of injuries rocking the rotation in 2024, but may finally be coming into form. Shane Baz returned from injury on 7/11 in his age-25 season, and ace Shane McClanahan should be back next season in the rotation. That gives an already decent six-man rotation:

• LHP Shane McClanahan
• RHP Ryan Pepiot
• RHP Taj Bradley
• LHP Jeffrey Springs
• RHP Shane Baz
• LHP Zack Littell

Plus there are the depth options of LHP Tyler Alexander (if he survives the off-season on the roster), RHP Jacob Waguespack, and prospects LHP Jacob Lopez, LHP Joe Rock, and LHP Ian Seymour. In other words, the Rays don’t need to upgrade the starting rotation.

On the other hand, it may be worth considering an upgrade if the front office thinks it’s worth allocating funds toward a more enticing arm, especially if the team found a taker on the trade market for the likes of Springs or Littell.

With that in mind, here are three free agents who might be worth breaking open the piggy bank for in 2025.

RHP Shane Bieber

In a world where the Rays know exactly what stadium they are playing in, they would be all over the Shane Bieber renaissance. The Rays have given two-year rehab contracts to pitchers before, most notably Nathan Eovaldi, who signed an incentive-laden one-year for $2 million, with a team option at the same rate. A former Cy Young winner coming off Tommy John surgery, Bieber will be looking for a similar deal to launch himself back into free agency, but he’ll command significantly more money, given the pedigree.

The Rays organization has plenty of non-payroll expenses to come, but situations like Bieber’s give them an opportunity to sign top talent to short-term deals. Their current payroll is low in absolute terms, so Tampa Bay should be willing to play in this market.

RHP Charlie Morton

Approaching his age-41 season it would be reasonable for the eternal Morton to retire, but here we are again wondering if he’ll continue. Once a Cy Young finalist with Tampa Bay in 2019, the Rays let him walk after the 2020 World Series, and he went on to put up four more quality seasons in Atlanta (earning $75 million in the process).

Now you might be thinking, why would we pay up for Morton if Bieber is available? Well, when there’s no stadium you need someone who’s committed to the local product, and Morton’s family still lives in the area. That could be an advantage if they’re willing to spend.

Then again, if you’re Morton, do you want to play in the Florida outdoor heat at age-41?

Morton is good, but this signing would also take some faith that his body will keep up with the demands of pitching at the highest level. Perhaps a 2TTO approach is enough to mitigate such risk.

RHP Frankie Montas

There are some pros and cons with this idea, let’s start with the con: If you didn’t like Aaron Civale in the Rays rotation, you might not be excited about a Montas project. Like Civale, his fastball is a below average major league pitch, with poor extension (13th percentile) and a very straight shape. Like Civale, he’s given up a ton of home runs. And he has no single single pitch as good as Civale’s curve or sweeper, which were among the best instances of that pitch type in the game.

Here’s the Pro: he’s more a Littell than a Civale! He features a mid-80s splitter and a 90 mph cutter, both with good depth, which theoretically gives him the tools to work both sides of the plate. The total package is looks like Littell +3 mph (but with a bit less command). The Rays might wonder if they can create more armside sweep with his slider, and possibly slow it down to differentiate it from that cutter — a gameplan they used on Littell to good effect before transitioning him to the rotation.

But the bigger question is about count management and fastball surviveability. When Montas absolutely needs to get a fastball over for a strike, and the batter knows that he needs to, can he? Or can he sequence and locate well enough to mostly avoid this dangerous situation? The Rays never quite got that equation right with Civale.

But also, that might not matter, because if you pony up free agent money for a Montas you’re not buying fastball quality, you’re paying for innings quantity, as David Appleman writes for FanGraphs:

Have you got a big pile of innings to eat? Does league-average production sound just about right to you? Chomp, chomp, chomp.

The Rays rotation is mostly young and recently injured. Montas provides some security against that risk in the following season.