Ohio projected to experience long-term population decline, report reveals

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) – Ohio is in the initial stages of long-term population decline, with a report issued by the Department of Development predicting the state will lose 675,000 people by 2050.

The state is projected to experience a gradual, sustained decrease in residents due to an aging population, declining fertility rates and slow migration patterns, according to the department. 

The agency projects Ohio’s population will decline by about 5.7%, or 675,000 people, from 2020 to 2050. During the same time period, the United States' population is expected to increase by 12%. However, the national growth rate has slowed over the past two decades, according to the University of Virginia.

The Greater Ohio Policy Center is a nonprofit organization that aims to improve and grow Ohio's communities. Executive director Alison Goebel said Ohio’s population is not decreasing evenly across the state – counties such as Crawford and Sandusky are expected to see loss, while central Ohio is anticipated to continue seeing robust growth, and southwest Ohio moderate growth. 

“Those growing areas have been and will continue to mask the magnitude of population contraction that other regions of the state are expected to experience,” Goebel said. 

Ohio’s population decline began in fall 2020, due to a sharp increase in the state’s mortality rate during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, the state saw its highest number of deaths in history at 143,600, and that number increased again to about 147,500 in 2021. 

However, the Department of Development stated the pandemic simply accelerated the timeline and increased the scale of expected loss due to an aging population. The report said the declining fertility rate in Ohio and across the country can be contributed to women delaying childbirth and having fewer children overall. 

Population loss could impact the state in numerous ways, including lower city and state tax collections, reducing government services and city maintenance. 

“A shrinking base of taxpayers means that it will be harder to pay for the same level of services and investments that we expect our local governments and local school districts to provide,” Goebel said.  “The new roads and utility lines we build today will still require maintenance in 25 years from now, but there may be fewer taxpayers to cover those costs.”

The 2010s marked the first decade since the 1950s that Ohio saw more people moving into the state than out, when the state gained approximately 60,000 new residents through domestic and international migration. Although Ohio is seeing a higher amount of migration than in past decades, Goebel said it still falls behind other states. 

“Those states with growing populations are experiencing robust domestic and international migration and larger family sizes among first generation Americans,” Goebel said. “International and domestic migrants also tend to be working-age or younger, meaning there is more opportunity to have families in the future.”

While the Buckeye state is currently the seventh-most populous state, the report predicts Georgia and North Carolina will surpass Ohio by about 2030. Ohio is expected to remain the ninth-most populous state for numerous years beyond 2050.

“Ohio’s future population projections are not destiny,” Goebel said. “We can bend the population curve upward, but it will require hard work at the local level and a supportive state policy environment that provides the tools and policies that local leaders need.”

State and city leaders can help to combat population loss by investing in "beautiful" and "walkable" downtowns and affordable housing, as well as supporting entrepreneurs and new businesses, Goebel said.