The serious implications of a Republican Senate
Editor’s note, November 6, 6 am ET: Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election. For more of our 2024 campaign coverage, click here.
Republicans have won a majority in the Senate, flipping the body after four years of Democratic control.
This was the predicted outcome given how vulnerable Democrats were this cycle: While they were defending nine battleground seats, Republicans were only defending three. The GOP successfully flipped key states including West Virginia and Ohio, while holding off unexpectedly competitive challenges in places like Nebraska and Texas.
Republicans’ victories come as former President Donald Trump leads in electoral votes, with multiple swing states still outstanding. As of 2 am ET, the presidential race has not been called for either candidate, though early results seem to suggest an advantage for Trump, with Vice President Kamala Harris’s plausible paths to victory narrowing.
In their campaigns, Republican Senate candidates leaned heavily on critiques of Democrats’ economic policies as many voters continued to grapple with inflation and high costs of living. They also kept up fear-mongering on immigration, arguing that only they could offer solutions to border crossing surges, like the one in 2023. Overall, because they weren’t in control of the Senate, Republican candidates were able to capitalize on anti-incumbent sentiment — and current discontent — as they campaigned to take back certain seats.
Republicans’ gains could have major implications for a potential Trump or Harris administration. If Trump wins, the Republican Senate would effectively offer him a blank check on appointments, and allow him to resume stacking the courts with his judges. Depending on the outcome of House races, a GOP Senate could also enable a possible Trump administration to pursue policy priorities like rolling back the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and renewing corporate tax cuts. If Harris wins, the Senate could well stymie key judicial appointees, and block her legislative goals.
What Republican Senate control could mean
The role the Senate will play in the next few years will depend heavily on who wins the presidential race.
The last Trump presidency was ultimately illustrative of what happens when both the White House and Senate are held by Republicans.
In that scenario, Trump was able to advance his judges at a rapid pace, reshaping the Circuit Court and Supreme Court with conservative picks. In total, Trump was able to get 234 judges confirmed, including the three who now sit on the Supreme Court who proved integral to overturning Roe v. Wade.
Similarly, Trump faced little backlash or accountability for his rhetoric or policy decisions throughout his term, including attempts to implement a Muslim travel ban or to shut down the government as leverage for funding for a wall along the US-Mexico border. Although some Republican senators spoke out, few truly vocalized their opposition to Trump or scrutinized his actions. When Trump was impeached for his role in fomenting the January 6 insurrection, for example, only seven Republicans voted to convict him — the rest voted to acquit him.
If Republicans maintain control of the House, a GOP Congress could also help Trump advance his legislative agenda.
Trump has focused more on executive actions he’d like to take (such as tariffs, immigration, and international relations) than on a congressional agenda. However, Republicans have long expressed an interest in curbing access to the ACA. One issue lawmakers will weigh in the next year is the expiration of ACA premium subsidies, Stat reports. House Speaker Mike Johnson has emphasized already that he’s interested in major “reform” to the health care act as well.
The tax cuts that Republicans passed in 2017 are also up for renewal, and will be another issue lawmakers in the next Congress will need to tackle. Trump has suggested cutting the corporate tax rate and has floated some income tax cuts too. Regardless of whether they take the House, Senate Republicans will likely advocate for those cuts. And Republicans could push, too, for expanded oil and gas drilling leases that Democrats had previously curbed.
Senate Republicans have already signaled that they plan to be as obstructionist as possible if they’re dealing with a Harris administration.
Notably, both Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX), two likely successors to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have told CNN they aren’t sure if they would hold a vote for any potential Harris Supreme Court nominees. With the majority, the GOP can try to block any Harris judicial appointment from advancing, much like they once did with former President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland and some of his lower court picks. In the case of Garland, the GOP successfully refused to ever hold a confirmation hearing or vote for him — and were able to prevent him from getting seated on the bench.
They could do the same for other Cabinet roles as well, and they could also block legislation from advancing. Harris campaigned heavily on working to enact policies that require congressional approval, including sweeping immigration and abortion reform. Those policy goals are unlikely to become a reality in a GOP-controlled Senate.
Regardless of whether Trump or Harris is in the White House, expect the upper chamber to play a significant role in advancing or hampering their efforts.
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