Elephant in the Upper Chamber: Republicans Take the Senate

Republicans have officially flipped control of the Senate, an outcome that was long expected thanks to a favorable electoral map that included Democrat-held seats in Trump-friendly West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio.

Republicans went into Election Day with a two-seat deficit in the upper chamber, one that election analysts widely expected the party to erase by flipping West Virginia and Montana. Former Democrat Joe Manchin (W.V.) effectively handed his seat to Republican coal magnate Jim Justice when he declined to run for reelection in November, while polls showed Montana's Jon Tester consistently trailing his GOP opponent, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. Justice won by more than 40 points, while Sheehy led by 6 points early Wednesday morning.

West Virginia and Montana, however, weren't the only strong pickup opportunities for the GOP. In Ohio, a state former president Donald Trump carried by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020—and 11 points on Tuesday—three-term Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown squared off against Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Though Brown held a polling lead for months, Moreno closed the gap late on the back of a GOP spending surge and ultimately won by 4 points.

In total, 19 Democratic seats were up this November, compared with 11 Republican seats. In addition to West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, Republicans targeted the swing states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They appear poised to grow their majority to anywhere between 53 and 56 seats.

Democrats, by contrast, were forced to target the red states of Florida, Texas, and Nebraska, the last of which featured an independent challenger, Dan Osborn, rather than a Democrat. Florida fell quickly, with Republican incumbent Rick Scott winning by 13 points. In Texas, GOP incumbent Ted Cruz led by 9 points when major networks called the race. Nebraska formally tipped the Senate in Republicans' favor, with incumbent Deb Fischer leading Osborn by 2 points with 70 percent of the vote reported.

The head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Montana's Steve Daines, aggressively courted the party's nominees in target states—unlike his predecessor, Florida's Rick Scott, who largely declined to wade into primary fights ahead of the 2022 midterms. "If endorsements mattered, I wouldn't have been a governor, and I wouldn't have been a U.S. senator," Scott told the Wall Street Journal at the time.

Daines's recruitment efforts helped avoid bitter primary fights. Daines's support for fellow Montanan Sheehy, for example, helped to edge out Republican Matt Rosendale. Daines avoided a primary altogether in Pennsylvania, whereas a bruising battle in 2022 produced a badly wounded Republican candidate, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz. In that cycle, Republican groups spent $315 million on Senate primaries and failed to flip a single seat. Two years later, they spent $67 million—a 78 percent decrease—and pulled off at least three flips, with more likely.

In addition to Justice and Sheehy, Daines's primary endorsees included former congressman Mike Rogers (Mich.), businessman Eric Hovde (Wisc.), Army veteran and former Bridgewater CEO Dave McCormick (Pa.), fellow Army veteran Sam Brown (Nev.), fellow former Bridgewater executive Nella Domenici, and two-term governor Larry Hogan (Md.), all of whom ran for Democrat-held seats.

Hogan fell in his race but forced Democrats to spend big in a state the party won by a whopping 33 points in 2020. Rogers, Hovde, McCormick, and Brown all lead in their respective races as of early Wednesday morning.

It appears almost certain that Republicans will control both the upper chamber and the White House, meaning Democrats must win the House to avoid a GOP trifecta.

It's unclear, though, who will lead Senate Republicans when they formally take control of the upper chamber in January. Longtime leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) is set to step down from the role this month, handing his colleagues a strong majority in the process. Sens. John Cornyn (R., Texas) and John Thune (R., S.D.) are considered the favorites to replace him.

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