Fraught, surreal campaign comes down to the wire. Will it be Harris or Trump?
The battle between Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, who would make history as the first woman and the first Asian American to win the presidency, and former President Donald Trump, who wants to avenge his 2020 loss and has vowed to kick out millions of undocumented immigrants during a second term, could stretch for days or weeks.
With the time it takes to process mail and provisional ballots, the uncertainty is not a surprise. In 2020, North Carolina was called for Trump 10 dates after Election Day. In Georgia, Biden was declared the winner 16 days later after hand recounts.
Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia are the most competitive states in the race — and were considered tossups in numerous polls.
Will Trump claim election victory?
The lack of uncertainty means Trump might repeat what he did in 2020: declare false voter fraud claims, like “surprise ballot dumps” that took his leads away. Trump has echoed that strategy this year, claiming massive voter fraud just days before Election Day 2024.
Trump has aimed some of those fraud allegations at Pennsylvania, which both Harris and Trump see as a must-win state. While there have been some isolated issues that election officials have dealt with, they have also pushed back on claims that any of the incidents have been intentional efforts to suppress the vote.
In reliably blue Illinois, the state was called for President Joe Biden in under an hour in 2020. Illinois Democrats have placed most of their campaign efforts on neighboring swing states Michigan and Wisconsin.
Illinois democrats rally for Harris
Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who was in the running to serve as Harris’ running mate, became a key surrogate for both Biden and Harris — and he also put his money where his mouth was, most recently contributing $923,000 to Harris’ campaign in late September. Pritzker also focused his efforts on abortion rights ballot initiatives in eight states, including Arizona, Florida and Arizona.
Harris accepted the nomination in Chicago on Aug. 22 at the Democratic National Convention, a historic moment brought to the city by Pritzker, Sen. Tammy Duckworth and former Mayor Lori Lightfoot.
Official results in the election will cap an unpredictable and headline-grabbing cycle, which just this year included two assassination attempts on Trump and Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in New York. Whether or not he wins, Trump faces potential sentencing on those charges on Nov. 26. A win could result in separate federal charges Trump faces being dismissed, and state criminal cases could be frozen until he leaves office.
Harris, who jumped into the race on July 21 after President Joe Biden delivered a disastrous debate performance, is used to breaking through barriers. She made history in 2016, becoming only the second Black woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, D-Ill, became the first Black woman to serve in the Senate during her one term from 1993 to 1999.
The former California senator and attorney general noted the unprecedented nature of taking Biden’s place atop the ticket four months ahead of the election — “but I’m no stranger to unlikely journeys,” she said at the DNC.
Harris win would mark many firsts
A Harris win would mark a monumental moment in U.S. history for women in a country that has been led by men for 235 years.
Harris’ racial background, born to an Indian mother and Jamaican father, was questioned by Trump on the campaign trail during his disastrous appearance at a Chicago event hosted by the National Association of Black Journalists.
When asked if it was appropriate to call Harris a “DEI hire,” phrasing which many Republicans have used, Trump accused Harris of “only promoting Indian heritage.”
“I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black. So I don’t know, is she Indian or is she Black?” Trump asked at the July 31 event.
Rachel Scott, a congressional correspondent for ABC News and the event’s moderator, quickly replied, “She’s always been Black.”
Harris has long identified as being both South Asian and Black.
Presidential promises and platforms
Harris, along with Biden, have raised more than $1.8 billion with their presidential campaign committee. Trump and his allied committees have raised more than $1 billion since he announced his run for presidency in November 2022.
That long slog of a campaign meant that Harris’ jump into the race in late July saw a big boost of energy for Democrats, many of whom did not trust Biden to lead a second term — because of his age, and because of policies that angered the party’s more progressive voters.
If Harris wins, her shortened campaign could serve as a lesson for future presidential campaigns that perhaps less is more.
Harris has said her presidency would provide tax credits to middle-class and lower-income families, lower drug costs and eliminate so-called junk fees. She also campaigned heavily on abortion rights — calling abortion restrictions in more than 20 states “Trump abortion bans,” in television ads. She repeatedly pledged to sign into law legislation that restores the federal right to abortion, if one is passed by Congress.
After repeatedly taking credit for appointing three U.S. Supreme Court justices who reversed Roe v. Wade in June 2022, Trump’s stance on abortion grew squishy. During the only presidential debate, Trump said, "I'm not signing a ban, and there's no reason to sign a ban, because we've gotten what everybody wanted — Democrats, Republicans and everybody else, and every legal scholar wanted it to be brought back into the states."
Trump has also criticized Florida’s six-week abortion ban, and said he favors exceptions in cases fo rape, incest or when the life of the mother is at risk. In an NBC interview in September, he said six weeks is “too short” and that he is is “going to be voting that we need more than six weeks.”
On immigration, Trump has said he would conduct the largest deportation in American history, rounding up millions of immigrants living in the country illegally to detain and deport them.
Harris, in a visit to the border in late September, outlined a plan to crack down on asylum claims and extend restrictions put in place by the Biden administration on asylum access.