If men don't vote, Harris wins
It’s Election Day, at last. Though we don’t know who will win this razor-tight contest, we do know that if V.P. Kamala Harris becomes our next president, it will be because men failed to show up.
Consider the early voting in Georgia: as of November 4, 2.2 million women had cast ballots, outnumbering male voters by 27%. In North Carolina, similarly, 2.3 million women had voted as of November 2, compared to 1.8 million men. That may be why former President Donald Trump is visiting North Carolina again in the final hours of campaigning – even though polls show him leading in the state.
Higher voting by women matters because this election shows the greatest gender divide in our history. Men are backing Trump by eight points, according to Pew polling, and women favor Harris by 9 points, a gender gap of 17 points. The gap gets even wider when further divided by level of education; college-educated women break for Harris by 27 points, while non-college educated men back Trump by 16 points – a gap of 43 points.
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Why the stark difference? Because college-educated women, according to the New York Times, are most concerned about abortion, while non-college educated men put economic issues ahead of every other concern. Women with a college degree tend to be better off than most Americans (though apparently not wiser) so, for them, inflation and the jobs market are lesser concerns.
The bad news for Trump is that there are more women than men registered to vote. In 2020, there were 89 million women signed up to vote, compared to 79.3 million men. Moreover, since 1980, women have voted at higher rates than men. Four years ago, for instance, 68.4% of eligible women turned out to vote, compared to 65% of eligible men. Did that difference put Biden in the Oval Office? Probably, and it could happen again.
If men think Trump has a huge lead and their vote won’t matter, they’re dead wrong. The last few elections have been decided by a whisker. In 2020, President Joe Biden won by just 45,000 votes; four years earlier, former president Donald Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton by an estimated 107,000 votes in three swing states, out of 120 million votes cast nationwide. This race looks just as close.
Gentlemen: if Trump is your pick and you think he’s got it knocked, think again. In the last few days, reports have shown some troubling early voting trends, while polls and betting odds have shifted once again, this time in favor of Kamala Harris. A shocking poll in red state Iowa showing Harris with a three-point lead is a major warning bell for the GOP.
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Most surveys now show the contest to be a dead heat, but they could be wrong. Remember that in 2022, many expected a "red wave" – voters angry about the open border and high inflation were expected to hand Republicans a large majority in the House and control of the Senate. It didn’t happen; the GOP took the House with the slimmest of margins and Democrats continued to have a slight advantage in the senate. Embarrassed pollsters on both sides of the aisle revisited their models and tried to explain how they got it so wrong.
The answer is simple: women, and especially white female college grads, were motivated by the overturning of Roe v Wade by the Supreme Court to vote against pro-life candidates; where states put the issue on the ballot, women showed up in unexpectedly high numbers.
That issue has not faded, even as numerous states, like New York, have enshrined abortion rights in local law. Democrat candidates in the Empire State, trying to unseat members of congress like Republican Mike Lawler, are running dishonest ads claiming that the GOP freshman wants to ban abortion nationwide. This is despite Lawler’s many denials and the fact that a nationwide referendum on the issue is not even close to being a possibility. New York passed its own heinous "abortion without limits" law several years ago; the right to choose in the state is not an issue.
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Kamala Harris continues to pound away on abortion rights, lying to voters about Trump’s intention to ban the procedure nationwide. He has repeatedly stated he has no such aim, but Harris knows this is an issue that will drive people to the polls.
She is right. Eleven states, including swing states Arizona and Nevada, have an abortion measure on the ballot; those propositions will help attract female voters, possibly impacting those swing states’ outcomes and also senate races in Maryland, Montana, Nebraska as well as numerous other down-ballot contests. .
What is Trump’s best issue – the one that will encourage men to vote? That would be the open border and illegal immigration, which can legitimately be blamed on Vice President Harris, who was put in charge of the border by Joe Biden. Some 12 million people entered the U.S. illegally on Harris’ watch, and she didn’t do a thing about it until the polls suggested voters had had enough.
Illegal immigration is driving down wages for lower-income Americans, costing blue cities a fortune, creating a national security risk, sopping up housing and medical care and driving crime higher. The Biden-Harris White House encouraged and welcomed this migrant flood, expecting those millions of people would eventually become Democrat voters; it was a major poke in the eye to all Americans, including legal immigrants.
If Harris becomes president, it is entirely possible that she re-opens the border, and allows unlimited illegal immigration for another four years. As on so many topics (reparations, EV mandates, sanctuary cities etc.), she has not told voters what she wants to do.
Guys - voting is a duty as well as a right; if you don’t participate you are not allowed to grumble later about the outcome being "rigged" or "unfair". If you don’t vote, Donald Trump will lose.