Cubs Predicted To Sign Top-3 Free Agent Starting Pitcher
While some Cubs fans desperately want to see the team go all-in on acquiring a star bat for the middle of the lineup this offseason experts within the baseball industry continue to signal toward a different kind of free agent splash. We’ve already seen one MLB insider name the Cubs as a popular destination for the 2022 NL Cy Young runner-up and now a few writers from MLB Trade Rumors are predicting that the Cubs will end up signing left-handed starting pitcher Max Fried.
MLBTR released its annual list of the top-50 free agents along with the staff’s predictions on where and for how much each of those top-50 players will sign in the offseason. Fried, who has spent his entire MLB career with the Atlanta Braves, enters free agency as the third-ranked starting pitcher behind Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell.
Via MLBTR.
This list is a labor of love that represents more than a month of work by Anthony Franco, Tim Dierkes, Darragh McDonald, and Steve Adams. We live and breathe MLB free agency at this website, and we’ve spent countless hours debating these contract projections. While we reached a general consensus on the contracts, points of disagreement certainly remain. We’ve each made our own set of team picks as well, but it’s worth noting the difficulty in getting even one-fifth of those correct.
Out of the four writers, three have predicted that the Cubs will sign Fried. Collectively, the prediction is that Fried signs a six-year deal worth $156 million. That would be an average annual value of $26 million.
Here are the main strengths Fried provides on the mound from MLBTR’s summary.
- Five consecutive seasons of high 2s-low 3s ERA, 2.81 ERA since the start of 2020 (112 Starts)
- 6.3 BB% since 2020, 11th best among all pitchers with at least 650 IP
- Elite ground ball rate, 3rd-best since 2020, career-best mark in 2024 at 58.8%
- Does not give up home runs, 2nd-lowest HR rate since 2020
This pretty much sums it up, batters don’t make good contact against Fried.
During that same time, not one of the qualified 143 starting pitchers has a lower opponents’ barrel rate than Fried’s 4.7%. Zack Wheeler is the only pitcher in that time with a lower average exit velocity on his batted balls; he’s at 86 mph to Fried’s 86.1. Fried might not reach double-digit strikeouts as often as many of his fellow aces, but he’s also going to avoid hard contact better than just about any of them.
However, as is with any player you talk about in free agency there are a couple of red flags. In 2023, Fried only made 14 starts with Atlanta, missing the majority of the season because of a forearm strain. He was able to rebound in 2024, tossing 174.1 innings across 29 starts, but he did have a stint on the injured list because of an issue on that same forearm. The only positive from that is that Fried didn’t have another strain, instead he missed time this past year because of an inflamed nerve.
His age could also be deemed as a negative. Fried will be 31-years-old by the beginning of the 2025 season and while any team should still expect some great years from the southpaw, the final year or two of a long-term contract could get a bit problematic. But that’s true for any top free agent.
Besides not being a huge strikeout pitcher, I’m not too concerned about that part because Fried does an excellent job of inducing weak contact, I would prefer if the top free agent pitcher the Cubs sign be more of a workhorse. Fried has only made 30 starts twice in his career and his career-high in innings pitched came in 2022, a year before he had the forearm strain. That being said, Fried pitched at least 165 innings in four of the five full seasons that he was with the Braves.
The Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Padres, Orioles, Tigers, Angels and Dodgers are also mentioned as likely suitors for Fried.
One interesting tidbit about Fried’s potential contract is that in the past decade there have only been five starting pitchers to receive a deal of six years or longer entering their age-31 season or older and two of them were by the Cubs. Jon Lester signed a six-year, $155 deal following the 2014 season and the Cubs inked Yu Darvish to a six-year, $120 million agreement heading into the 2018 season.
Jed Hoyer hasn’t been shy about adding starting pitchers to multi-year deals since taking over as the shot-caller for the Cubs, but those deals don’t come close to what Fried is expected to sign.
Another in-depth look at some of this year’s top free agents in The Athletic, predicts that Fried will end up signing a five-year, $140 million contract.
This reminds me of the free agent shortstop class from a few years ago. You knew the Cubs were going to get one of them, but they didn’t want to pay at the very top of the market. Corbin Burnes is projected to get above $200 million, while Blake Snell could be on his way to earning at least $30 million annually on his new contract.
You can never have enough quality pitching depth and Fried’s pitching profile perfectly lines up with this Cubs roster. A ground ball pitcher who has an elite middle infield behind him and he won’t be as costly as the other top free agent starters. Get it done, Jed.
You can see all the MLBTR predictions here.